ABD 10 yıllık getirileri 24 yılın zirvesine yaklaşınca Hindistan dahil EM’ler baskı altında kalıyor

Kısaca

ABD 10 yıllık getiri yüzde 5,34’e çıkarak Nifty ve ruayı baskıladı; Sensex 1.000 puandan fazla geriledi Küresel borçlanma maliyeti yükseldi, dolar güç kazandı ve gelişmekte olan piyasalarda varlıklar satıldı Rupee, dolar karşısında 95,98 seviyesine geriledi; Rs 10 lakh crore değerinde sermaye kaybı görüldü

Ana mesele

ABD on yıllık getirilerinin 24 yılın zirvesine yaklaşması, gelişmekte olan piyasalarda baskıyı güçlendirdi.

Ne değişti?

Main_issue ile paralel olarak, getirilerdeki yükseliş Hindistan’da hisse ve döviz piyasalarında baskıyı belirginleştirdi.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya yatırım akışları ve risk iştahı üzerinde baskı olacağı güveni veriyor.

Ne oldu?

ABD 10 yıl getirileri 5,34% seviyesine çıktı.

Neden şimdi?

Enflasyon endişeleri ve petrol fiyatlarıyla desteklenen faizlerde uzun süreli yüksek görünüm.

Neden önemli?

Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda sermaye akışları ve borçlanma maliyetleri üzerinde baskı artıyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Hindistan yatırımcıları
• Gelişmekte olan piyasalardaki kur yatırımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Emtia ve varlık fiyatları dalgalanıyor; hisse endeksleri düşüyor.

Riskler

• Döviz ve borçlanma maliyetlerinde görünür baskı
• Piyasa güveninin azalması
• Jeopolitik belirsizlikler

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD getirilerinin sonraki hareketleri
• Dolar endeksi hareketleri
• Hindistan ve diğer EM’lerde sermaye akışları

Haberin tamamı

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since early 2002 on Thursday, deepening a global bond sell-off and putting fresh pressure on emerging markets, including India.

The yield rose as high as 5.34%, crossing its 2007 peak, as investors sold government bonds on concerns over inflation, higher crude prices and the possibility that US interest rates may stay elevated for longer.The 10-year Treasury, seen as the global benchmark for borrowing costs, also posted its biggest quarterly rise of this century in the third quarter, according to Reuters.The sharp rise in US yields hit equity sentiment across risk assets.

In India, the Sensex fell more than 1,000 points on Thursday, and the Nifty slipped below key levels as investors worried that higher US rates would keep foreign institutional investors away from emerging markets. Investor wealth worth nearly Rs 10 lakh crore was wiped out as the sell-off spread across sectors.Why is this harsh on emerging markets?For emerging markets, a rise in the US 10-year yield is a direct headwind.

When US government bonds offer a better yield, global investors get a higher return from a dollar asset considered safer than emerging market equities or debt. That reduces the relative appeal of markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa.Also Read: Why is market crashing today? Sensex slumps 1,200 points, Nifty below 22,250. 5 key factors behind Rs 10 lakh crore wipeoutHigher US yields also strengthen the dollar.

A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on emerging market currencies, raises imported inflation and makes foreign debt more expensive for companies and governments. For India, the impact is sharper because elevated crude prices can widen the current account deficit and add pressure on the rupee.The rupee also weakened on Thursday, tracking losses in Asian currencies, as the dollar index rose to a three-month high on the back of higher US Treasury yields.

The Indian currency slipped to 95.98 per dollar, with state-run banks likely selling dollars to limit losses near the 96 level.Indian bond markets also under pressureIndian bond markets also came under pressure. Traders expect the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield to trade in the 7.18-7.26% range.

The yield had closed at 7.1879% on Wednesday, a two-and-a-half-year high, after rising 24 basis points in September and about 44 basis points during the quarter.The timing is difficult for India because the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision is due soon. Higher global yields make it harder for the central bank to sound relaxed on rates, especially when crude prices and the rupee are already under watch.

Analysts were expecting pressure on the RBI to raise the repo rate, with markets pricing in further tightening over the next year.Equity investors are also watching foreign flows closely. Higher US yields have already contributed to heavy FII selling in Indian equities. When foreign investors can earn higher returns in US bonds, they often cut exposure to expensive emerging market equities, especially where currency risk is rising.The pressure is visible in valuations too.

Rising US yields reduce the premium investors are willing to pay for equities because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. Growth stocks, financials and rate-sensitive sectors usually face the first round of selling.Disclosure: This article has been written by Podishetti Akash, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Podishetti Akash and his ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclosures here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets