ABD Borsasında AI Boomu Yükselişi Derinleştiriyor: Dördüncü Yıla Girerken Riskler Konuşuluyor

Kısaca

S&P 500, yeni zirvelere yakın; yapay zeka yatırımları getirileri destekliyor (yaklaşık yüzde 117,00 artış). AI altyapı yatırımları ve iş gücü verimliliği sayesinde kazanç beklentileri güçleniyor; sürdürülebilirlik kanıtı için izleniyor. Gelecekte belirsizlikler, yüksek getiri olasılığını dengelemek için daha net delillere ihtiyaç doğuruyor.

Ana mesele

ABD borsasındaki yükselişin, yapay zeka yatırımlarıyla sürdürülebilirliği konusunda soru işaretleri var

Ne değişti?

AI harcamaları getiriyi güçlendirirken, net getirilerin sürdürülmesi için kanıt arayışı artıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcı güveni ve portföy stratejileri etkilenebilir

Ne oldu?

ABD borsasında dört yıllık boğa koşusuna yaklaşılırken AI harcamaları ve güçlü karlar büyümeyi destekledi.

Neden şimdi?

Dördüncü yıl yaklaşırken yatırımcılar AI altyapısı yatırımlarının geri dönüşünü görmek istiyorlar.

Neden önemli?

AIyle güçlenen kazançlar piyasa güvenini artırsa da getirilerin sürdürülebilirliği için net kanıt gereklidir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Hisse senedi portföy yöneticileri
• Şirketler (teknoloji, AI altyapı sağlayıcıları)

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

AI harcamaları teknoloji ve finans sektörlerinde kazanç beklentilerini yükseltiyor; piyasa volatilitesi de izleniyor

Riskler

• Yüksek getiriyi sürdürmede belirsizlik
• Artan tahvil getirileri ve para politikası etkisi
• Piyasa konsantrasyonu riskleri (büyük oyuncuların hakimiyeti)

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• AI yatırım verimliliği ve sermaye harcamalarının somut getirilere dönüşüm hızı
• Gelir büyümesiyle sürdürülüp sürdürülemeyecekleri
• Makroekonomik göstergeler ve politika kararlarının etkisi

Haberin tamamı

The US bull market is approaching its fourth anniversary, supported by booming artificial intelligence investment, strong corporate earnings and resilient economic growth. However, rising Treasury yields, tighter monetary policy and growing market concentration pose risks to its continued advance, Reuters reported.The S&P 500 is trading near record highs ahead of October 12, which marks four years since the benchmark index closed at its cyclical low in 2022.

The current bull run has delivered a gain of about 117%, making it the sixth-best-performing bull market since World War Two and the eighth-longest, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, as cited by Reuters.Read more: Global Market: South Korean shares fall nearly 2% as Middle East tensions weigh on sentimentThe rally has gathered momentum as companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, including data centres and advanced computing systems.

Strong earnings growth, supported by a relatively resilient US economy, has reinforced investor confidence in the market's outlook.However, sustaining the rally could become increasingly challenging as investors demand clearer evidence that massive AI-related investments will generate lasting returns.

Higher bond yields, monetary policy uncertainty and the upcoming US midterm elections could also contribute to volatility.AI spending powers earnings and economic growthArtificial intelligence has emerged as the defining theme of the current bull market, with the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 coming roughly a month after the S&P 500 began its recovery.S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by more than 35% in 2026, supported by strong corporate performance and capital expenditure by major technology companies investing in AI infrastructure, Reuters reported.The economic impact of the AI boom has extended beyond the technology sector.

Oxford Economics estimates that approximately one-third of recent US economic growth has been linked to AI, including direct investment in infrastructure and the wealth effect generated by rising stock prices that support consumer spending.Read more: Once-hot AI trade leaves Korean stocks struggling for buyersTechnology and communication services have been the strongest-performing sectors in the S&P 500 during the bull run.

The latter includes major AI-linked companies such as Alphabet and Meta Platforms.Nvidia has been among the biggest beneficiaries of the investment boom. Its market capitalisation has surged to approximately $5.8 trillion from $286 billion on October 12, 2022, making the chipmaker the world's largest publicly traded company by market value.The expansion of technology valuations has also increased the number of US companies worth at least $1 trillion, with 13 businesses reaching that threshold.

All but two are either technology companies or have significant exposure to AI, highlighting the sector's growing influence on the broader market.Market concentration raises concernsThe dominance of large technology and AI-linked stocks has helped propel the S&P 500 higher but has also made the benchmark increasingly dependent on a relatively small group of companies.The 10 largest constituents now account for approximately 40% of the index, up from around 28% in October 2022, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.While the concentration reflects strong earnings and the financial strength of leading technology companies, it also leaves the broader market vulnerable to a reversal in investor sentiment towards AI.Any signs that AI-related spending is slowing, or that the investments are failing to deliver expected returns, could trigger sharp declines in heavily weighted stocks and disproportionately affect index performance.Investors are therefore likely to scrutinise technology companies' capital expenditure plans, revenue growth and profit margins more closely as the bull market matures.Rising Treasury yields pose another challengeMonetary policy and rising borrowing costs present additional headwinds for equities.

The Federal Reserve's efforts to contain persistent inflation have raised concerns that tighter financial conditions could weigh on economic activity and corporate earnings.The previous bear market, which ended with the S&P 500's October 2022 low, coincided with an aggressive cycle of interest rate increases by the US central bank.Treasury yields have also climbed sharply, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 5.2% after recently reaching its highest level in 24 years.

Higher yields can make bonds more attractive relative to stocks while increasing financing costs for businesses and putting pressure on equity valuations, Reuters reported.The combination of elevated yields and stretched valuations could leave markets more sensitive to inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals and changes in corporate earnings expectations.Investors are also preparing for the US midterm elections next month, which could add to uncertainty and market volatility.Four years into the rally, investors remain cautiously optimisticDespite the risks, market strategists do not consider the bull market's age alone a reason to expect an imminent reversal.A commonly used definition of a bull market is a rise of at least 20% following a decline of at least 20% from a previous peak.

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Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets