ABD Hazine Getirileri 24 Yılın Zirvesine Yaklaşırken 10 Yıllık 5,35% Seviyesini Aştı

Kısaca

ABD 10 yıllık getiri 5,35% ile 24 yılın zirvesine yakınlaştı; 30 yıllık 5,724% seviyesinde. DXY 102,32 Güvenli liman talebiyle piyasalarda volatilite artıyor ve yıl sonu görünümü etkilenebilir. İlgili yatırım kararları için Fed toplantı tutanakları ve yeni ihraçlar izlenecek.

Ana mesele

ABD 10 yıllık hazine getirisi 5,35% seviyesini aşarak getirilerde artış baskısını güçlendirdi.

Ne değişti?

DXY 102,32 seviyesinde, önceki günlere göre yükselişini sürdürdü ve güvenli liman talebi pekişti.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya, getirilerin yükselişiyle borçlanma maliyetlerinin baskılanabileceğini ve yatırım kararlarında risk primlerinin değişebileceğini aktarıyor.

Ne oldu?

US 10-year yield 5,31% civarında seyrediyordu; 5,35% seviyesini aşmasıyla 24 yılın zirvesine yakınlaştı.

Neden şimdi?

Enflasyon ve mali politika endişeleri, Fed karar beklentileriyle getirileri yükseltiyor.

Neden önemli?

Getirilerdeki yükseliş, borçlanma maliyetlerini etkileyerek küresel finansal koşulları değiştirebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankası iletişimi
• Borçlanma piyasası katılımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finans ve devlet borçlanma piyasalarında volatilite ve piyasa fiyatlamasında değişim

Riskler

• Fiyat dalgalanmaları
• Enflasyon baskısının sürmesi durumunda politika yanıtı ihtimali
• Piyasalarda kısa vadeli kırılmalar

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed tutanakları
• 10 ve 30 yıllık ihraçlar
• DXY hareketleri
• Piyasa beklentilerindeki sapmalar

Haberin tamamı

US 10-year yield jumps above 5.31%, extending its summer surge.US 30-year yield reaches 5.724% as investors demand higher premiums.December Fed hike odds hold near 85% despite October pause bets.US Treasury yields soar on Wednesday, with the 10- and 30-year yields reaching 24-year highs of 5.35% and 5.724%, respectively, suggesting that investors are demanding a higher premium on US debt amid inflation and fiscal policy concerns.Fiscal strains and inflation fears drive a sharp repricing of US debt riskThe US 10-year Treasury yield rises more than three basis points to 5.31% at the time of writing, boosting the Greenback’s appeal, as reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gains over 0.47%.The DXY, which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up at 102.32, still shy of testing the year-to-date (YTD) high of 102.53. In the currency market, the Dollar is the strongest, followed by the safe-haven Yen and Swiss Franc, while the Euro is the weakest and plunges amid France’s fiscal concerns.Investors' eyes are on the release of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Worth noting, a 10-year bond auction would be scrutinized as the US Treasury plans to sell $39 billion of 10-year notes.The yield on the US 10-year T-note has risen by over 60 basis points since the end of July, when hostilities in the Middle East resumed, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up around 20% at that time.So far, money markets have priced in that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at the October meeting. The odds of a rate hike are slim at 18%, but the odds of a December meeting remain at 85%, according to Prime Terminal.Fed interest rate probability - Source: Prime TerminalUS 10-year Treasury note yield chart – MonthlyUS 10-year Treasury yield

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.

If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

How do interest rates impact currencies?

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.

If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.

Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet