ABD Hazine getirileri yükselişe geçerken piyasalarda baskı artıyor: dört önemli göstergeden ayrıntılar

Kısaca

ABD Hazine getirileri 10 yıllık için 5,23%, 30 yıllık için 5,614% olarak kaydedildi; yükseliş baskıyı artırabilir analistler teknik göstergelerin ivmeyi desteklediğini belirtiyor gösterge ve opsiyon talebi artabilir, faiz sigortası maliyeti yükselmesi beklenebilir

Ana mesele

ABD Hazine getirilerinin yükselişi borçlanma maliyetlerini artırabilir ve finansal piyasalarda baskıyı güçlendirebilir

Ne değişti?

olası bir baskı senaryosu, son dönemde görülen yükseliş eğiliminin ivme kazanabileceği noktası

Beni nasıl etkiler?

faiz giderleri artan şirketler ve tüketici kredileriyle finansal maliyetler yükseliyor

Ne oldu?

ABD Hazine getirileri yükseldi ve 10 yıllık getiride 5,23%, 30 yıllık getiride 5,614% seviyelerine çıktı

Neden şimdi?

İran ile savaşın etkisinin sürebileceği ve likidite/sigorta talebinin artması bekleniyor

Neden önemli?

yüksek getiriler borçlanma maliyetlerini artırır ve borç yükü olan aktörleri etkiler

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yatırımcılar
• finansal kurumlar
• borçlanma ihtiyacı olan işletmeler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

bütünleşik piyasalarda değerlemeler ve risk primlerinde değişim olasılığı

Riskler

• piyasa oynaklığı artabilir
• hedging maliyetleri yükselebilir
• yapısal kredi riskleri tetiklenebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• yeniden dengelemeler ve korunma stratejileri
• yenileme kredileri ve devlet borçlanma göstergeleri
• opsiyon/instrument ticaretindeki hareketler
• merkez bankası politikaları ve sinyalleri

Haberin tamamı

US Treasury yields have climbed sharply since the war with Iran began in February, raising concerns that sustained bond selling could further raise borrowing costs and amplify stress across financial markets.The 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 135 basis points to 5.23%, while the 30-year yield has climbed around 110 basis points from its March low to 5.614%.

Both yields are trading at levels last seen more than two decades ago, Reuters reported.Investors are increasingly watching for signs that the selloff could gain momentum, with technical indicators pointing to the possibility of another sharp yield rise.

Such a move could create a feedback loop in which higher yields prompt additional hedging and selling, further intensifying pressure on the bond market.However, elevated yields could also attract investors seeking to lock in returns at levels not seen since the presidency of George W.

Bush, potentially supporting Treasury prices.Read more: Global Market: South Korean shares fall nearly 2% as Middle East tensions weigh on sentimentReuters identified four key indicators suggesting that the recent bond market weakness could deepen1. Demand for protection against rising yields is increasingInvestors are increasingly seeking protection against a further rise in interest rates through the options market, a trend known as payer skew.

These instruments let investors hedge against sharp yield increases without necessarily selling their existing Treasury holdings.The cost of insuring against a 200-basis-point increase in 10-year US swap rates over the next three months climbed to 132 basis points on Monday, its highest level since the March 2023 banking crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Reuters reported.Swap rates represent the fixed interest rate investors exchange for floating-rate payments.

Although options are linked to swap rates rather than Treasury yields, the two generally move in tandem, making increased demand for protection a potential warning sign for government bonds.Implied volatility, a key factor in options pricing, also rose to 21.4 basis points for one-month options on 10-year swap rates, the highest since late March.

The increase indicates greater uncertainty about the direction of longer-term interest rates and heightened concern over further yield increases.Read more: Once-hot AI trade leaves Korean stocks struggling for buyers2.

Artificial intelligence investment is adding to bond market pressureThe rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure has emerged as another source of pressure on the Treasury market, as technology companies issue large amounts of debt to finance their investments.According to Reuters, investors buying longer-dated bonds issued by AI hyperscalers are increasingly hedging interest-rate exposure through the Treasury market.

Such hedging can involve selling Treasury futures, adding to downward pressure on government bond prices and pushing yields higher.Some investors also sell Treasuries outright to free up capital for higher-yielding corporate debt, particularly when large investment-grade bond offerings come to market.The scale of expected borrowing by technology companies could prolong the pressure.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI hyperscalers could issue a record $420 billion in debt next year, Reuters reported, potentially generating additional hedging activity and further Treasury selling.Although demand for corporate debt remains strong, the associated transactions could create a persistent source of selling pressure in government bonds.3.

Mortgage investors are stepping up hedging activityMortgage-related hedging is another factor that could exacerbate the Treasury selloff.When interest rates rise, mortgage-backed securities can become more sensitive to further rate increases because the expected life of the underlying mortgages extends.

Investors holding these securities may respond by increasing their interest-rate hedges, a strategy known as convexity hedging.This process can involve selling Treasury futures, potentially reinforcing the broader decline in bond prices.Reuters reported that investors remain exposed to a substantial volume of mortgages originated over the past three years at coupon rates relatively close to current mortgage rates.

This could leave mortgage portfolios vulnerable to further yield changes and generate additional demand for hedging.Recent large transactions also suggest mortgage investors are moving to protect their positions against market volatility. If yields continue to rise, further hedging could add another layer of selling pressure to an already unsettled Treasury market.4.

Steepening yield curve signals growing concerns over long-term debtThe widening spread between 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields is another warning sign for investors.The 10-year/30-year yield spread widened to around 37 basis points this week as the 30-year yield rose faster than its 10-year counterpart, Reuters reported.

The move suggests that investors are demanding greater compensation for holding longer-dated US government debt, Reuters reported.Although the spread has been wider in the past, including when it reached 52 basis points in late July, the latest steepening is taking place with both yields already near multidecade highs.This may indicate that investors are increasingly concerned about the risks associated with holding long-term debt, including the US fiscal outlook, rather than simply adjusting their expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.The additional compensation investors demand for holding longer-term bonds is known as the term premium.

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Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets