ABD Hisse Senetleri ve Uzun Vadeli Tahvillerde Yields Artıyor: Fed Baskısı ve Talep Zorluğu Etkisi

Kısaca

ABD getirileri çok yıllık zirveye doğru yükseliyor; 30 yıllık tahvil %5,444 seviyesinde; 10 yıllık %5,148; 2 yıl %4,494. neden şimdi: Fed’in ek faiz artırımı ihtimali ve güçlü veriler. sonuç: borçlanma maliyetleri yükselebilir; yatırımcılar riskli varlıklardan kaçabilir; takip edilecek nokta Fed politikaları ve Hazine talebi

Ana mesele

ABD tahvil getirileri çok yıllık zirvelere doğru yükseliyor.

Ne değişti?

Fed sıkılaşma beklentileri ve zayıf Hazine talebiyle getiriler yükseliyor; 30 yıl getirisi 22 yılın zirvesine ulaştı.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yüksek borçlanma maliyetleri konut, kredi kartı ve ticari kredileri sıkıştırabilir.

Ne oldu?

ABD Hazine getirileri 10 ve 30 yıllık tahvillerde kritik seviye olan %5’in üzerine çıktı.

Neden şimdi?

Fed’in sıkılaşma beklentileri ve verilerin güçlenmesiyle uzun vadeli getiriler yükseldi; zayıf ihraç talebi de baskıyı artırdı.

Neden önemli?

Yüksek getiriler borçlanma maliyetlerini artırır; konut, kredi kartı ve kurumsal kredileri etkiler; büyüme üzerinde baskı olabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Hanehalkı borçlanması
• Kurumsal kredi kullanan şirketler
• Finansal piyasa yatırımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Tahvil piyasasında baskı sürerken hisse senedi piyasalarında riskten kaçış ve dolar güçlenmesi görülebilir.

Riskler

• Ekonomi soğuyabilir
• Bütçe ve borçlanma maliyetleri artabilir
• Piyasa volatilitesi yükselebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed’in gelecek toplantı kararları
• Hazine ihraç programı ve talep gelişmeleri
• Güçlü veri akışının etkileri
• Kamu ve özel sektör borçlanma maliyetleri

Haberin tamamı

US Treasury yields surged on Wednesday, with the revenue of the 10- and 30-year notes breaking past the key 5% level.A mix of strong US data, Fed tightening expectatio, and low demand for US Treasuries is boosting yields this week.These levels suggest higher borrowing costs for families and businesses, which would threaten economic growth.US Treasury yields stretched to their highest levels in years on Wednesday, fuelled by a mix of rising expectations of further monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following upbeat US business activity data and a poor US Treasury bond auction. These levels are consistent with higher borrowing costs in mortgages, credit cards or corporate loans, ultimately posing a significant strain on economic growth. The market has performed a risk-off reaction, weighing on stocks and lifting the US Dollar (USD).The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond trades at 5.444% on Thursday, its highest level in 22 years, and the benchmark 10-year has reached 5.148% for the first time since 2007 after a whopping 20-basis-point jump from Wednesday’s lows. The 2-year yield, which is closely related to Fed monetary tightening expectations, rallied to two-year highs at 4.494% Long-term securities have thus crossed the 5% level, considered a psychological threshold, which, apart from driving borrowing costs to unaffordable levels, might prompt investors to move away from stock markets to risk-free government debt. Strong US data and weak demand for US Treasuries boosted yieldsUS yields surged on Wednesday as preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data showed strong business activity. These figures, coupled with higher wages and rising costs amid high energy prices, boosted expectations that the US central bank will have to tighten its monetary policy soon to keep the economy from overheating.Fed Governor Michael Barr confirmed those views later on Wednesday, affirming that “further rate hikes are likely needed to ensure timely return to the 2% inflation.” Beyond that, a five-year US Treasury auction drew shockingly poor demand, which, according to MUFG analysts, highlights investor unease around the US rates outlook.Against this backdrop, MUFG warns that “FX [is] more vulnerable to a carry unwind given how well these trades have done in this incredible low FX vol environment.” In such a shakeout, MUFG expects “high yielders across EM would suffer most while the yen and Swiss franc would outperform,” as investors rotate out of riskier carry positions into traditional safe-haven currencies.

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet