Altın Fiyatları Fed Yolunu Belirleyecek Veri Öncesi Baskı Altında

Kısaca

Altın fiyatları haftayı düşüşle geçirdi; spot 4.154,78 dolar/ons, haftalık kayıp >3% olarak görünüyor; ABD işgücü verileri bekleniyor. MCX bugün Gandhi Jayanti nedeniyle kapalı; Hindistan'daki işlem akışı pazartesi başlayacak. ABD raporları Fed’in politika yolunu netleştirecek sinyaller verecek; piyasalarda yön arayışı sürüyor.

Ana mesele

Altın fiyatları, Fed’in politika yolunu işaretleyecek istihdam verileri öncesinde baskı altında kalıyor

Ne değişti?

İşgücü verileri öncesi ABD dolarının güçlenmesi ve getirilerin yükselmesiyle altın baskı altında kalmaya devam ediyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar için portföy dengesi ve risk iştahında yön arayışı oluşabilir

Ne oldu?

Altın fiyatları güçlü dolar ve yüksek getiriler nedeniyle baskı altında kaldı

Neden şimdi?

ABD işgücü verileri, Fed'in gelecek adımlarını gösterecek önemli bir katalizör olarak öne çıkıyor

Neden önemli?

Altın, müdahaleci olmayan yatırım aracı olarak cazibesini yitirebilir; kurumsal portföyler yeniden dengeleyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• altın yatırımcıları
• kıymetli metal ticareti yapan aracı kurumlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Emtia ve para politikası beklentileri küresel piyasalarda volatiliteyi artırabilir

Riskler

• Fed belirsiz iletişimiyle yön değişebilir
• ABD verileri beklenenin aksine gelirse etkiler farklılaşabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD işsizlik ve istihdam verileri
• FED yönlendirme işareti veren açıklamalar
• ABD dolar ve tahvil getirilerinde hareketler

Haberin tamamı

Gold prices slipped on Friday and were headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as a firmer US dollar and elevated Treasury yields kept pressure on bullion, with traders awaiting key US employment data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,154.78 per ounce and was down more than 3% for the week so far.

US gold futures declined 0.4% to $4,184 per ounce.On COMEX, gold was quoted at $4,186.30, down 0.38%, after moving in a range of $4,162.90-$4,213.30.The pullback in bullion comes as higher US yields and a stronger dollar reduce the appeal of the non-yielding asset.

Traders are now looking to the US nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment data for signals on the strength of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.MCX to remain closed today for Gandhi JayantiIndian commodity traders will remain on the sidelines on Friday as the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is closed for Gandhi Jayanti, which marks the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.Trading in gold, silver and other commodities on the exchange will remain suspended today and resume on Monday, October 5.The holiday break comes at a potentially important juncture for bullion markets.

With domestic trading shut, any significant moves in international gold, the US dollar, Treasury yields or geopolitical developments over the weekend could be reflected in MCX prices when trading resumes on Monday.Indian equity markets are also closed today for Gandhi Jayanti.Also Read | Stock market holiday today: Are NSE, BSE closed for Gandhi Jayanti?

Check 2026 holiday listGold in focus ahead of US payrolls dataThe US jobs report is the key macroeconomic event for bullion markets, with investors assessing whether the data could alter expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory.Gold typically comes under pressure when the dollar strengthens and bond yields rise, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.Conversely, signs of a softer US labour market could reinforce expectations for a less restrictive monetary-policy stance, potentially easing pressure on bullion.For now, the $4,200-an-ounce mark remains an important level for traders to watch, while support has emerged around $4,125.Gold outlook: key levels to watch“COMEX Gold found support near $4,125, while resistance around $4,200 remains intact.

With a long weekend in India and key US data, including Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures, due on Friday, volatility could remain elevated,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.Trivedi said the extended weekend could result in a gap opening when domestic markets reopen, depending on the outcome of the US data and developments over the weekend, particularly around US-Iran tensions.“Gold range can be seen between Rs 1,48,000–Rs 1,52,500,” he said.Oil prices hold firm amid Middle East tensionsOil prices held broadly steady on Friday after rising for two consecutive sessions, as markets assessed escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the potential impact on regional energy supplies.Brent crude was last quoted at $102.58 a barrel, up 0.26%, while WTI crude stood at $92.91 a barrel, up 0.04%.The US was weighing additional military deployments to the Middle East, including another aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops, raising concerns about a potential escalation in tensions involving Iran and the risk of further disruption to regional energy supplies.For commodity markets, developments in the Middle East remain a key variable.

A sustained escalation could keep crude prices elevated while also supporting demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.Gold Rates in Physical MarketsDelhi22-carat gold: Rs 13,694 per gram24-carat gold: Rs 14,940 per gramMumbai22-carat gold: Rs 13,669 per gram24-carat gold: Rs 14,923 per gramChennai22-carat gold: Rs 13,669 per gram24-carat gold: Rs 14,923 per gramHyderabad22-carat gold: Rs 13,669 per gram24-carat gold: Rs 14,923 per gramIndian stock market recapIndian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak in Thursday’s session, with selling pressure intensifying across market segments amid concerns over rising yields, elevated crude prices and the broader macroeconomic outlook.The Nifty 50 fell 198.50 points, or 0.88%, to close at 22,421.95, while the BSE Sensex declined 570.59 points, or 0.79%, to end at 71,909.70.The weakness extended beyond large-cap stocks.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped 0.97%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 declined 1.01%, pointing to broad-based selling pressure.Volatility also picked up, with the India VIX rising 7.04% to 14.44.Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Auto index emerged as the biggest laggard, falling more than 3%. The Nifty Metal, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables indices each declined around 2%.Market breadth remained decisively negative.

Of the 3,707 stocks traded on the NSE, 2,574 closed lower, while 1,023 advanced and 110 remained unchanged.The total market capitalisation of companies listed on the NSE stood at approximately Rs 467.54 lakh crore, equivalent to around $4.87 trillion.Disclosure: This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a Sebi-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser.

Gaurav and their ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective Sebi-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution.

They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets