AUD/USD'de düşüş olasılığı artıyor: 0,6900 altına inme ihtimali ve ABD dolarının güçlenmesi

Kısaca

AUD/USD yakın 0,6935 seviyesinde seyrediyor; DXY 102,50'ye çıktı; 0,6900 altında yeni düşüş olasılığı artıyor. Fransız bütçe tartışmaları ve FED'in Ekim toplantısı öncesi pestil beklentileri piyasalarda baskıyı artırdı. Döviz çiftinde baskı sürüyor; yatırımcılar 0,6900 seviyesini izleyecek ve yön arayışını sürdürecek.

Ana mesele

ABD doları güçlenirken AUD/USD 0,69 altına inmeye yakın

Ne değişti?

Fransız mali kaygıları ve Fed’in Ekim toplantısı için beklentilerin azalması, AUD/USD üzerinde baskı oluşturmaya devam ediyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya döviz hareketlerinin yatırım kararlarını etkileyebileceğini gösterir

Ne oldu?

AUD/USD yaklaşık 0,6935 civarında işlem gördü; dolar güç kazandı.

Neden şimdi?

Fransız mali kaygıları güvenli liman talebini artırdı; FED’in Ekim toplantısı için faiz artış ihtimali zayıfladı.

Neden önemli?

Döviz ve küresel finansal koşulları etkileyerek yatırım kararlarını şekillendirir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• FX tüccarları
• Kamu ve özel finansal kurumlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz ve ABD para politikası beklentileri üzerinde baskı oluşabilir.

Riskler

• Faiz politikası belirsizliği
• Piyasa oynaklığında artış
• İçeride riskli varlıklar üzerinde baskı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 0,6900 seviyesi kırılır mı
• DXY hareketleri
• NFP sonrası Fed mesajları

Haberin tamamı

AUD/USD declines to near 0.6935 as the US Dollar outperforms its peers.Growing French fiscal risks have improved the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.The odds of the Fed raising interest rates in the October meeting have diminished significantly.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is down 0.15% to near 0.6935 against the US Dollar (USD) in the Asian trade on Monday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar outperforms due to escalate France fiscal woes.

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.5% higher to near 102.50, the highest level seen in over 17 months.French fiscal worries as financial markets doubt that the country’s 2027 budget bill presented by Finance Minister (FM) Roland Lescure last week would be cleared at the Parliament.Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights mounting fiscal challenges in France, signaling caution that they “doubt the proposal will clear parliament without significant concessions,” underscoring the political hurdles to meaningful consolidation. Haddad argues that “a rollover of the 2026 budget is the most likely outcome given the limited appetite for compromise before the presidential election on April 18, 2027.”Escalated French fiscal concerns have improved the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.On the monetary policy front, traders have trimmed hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the October meeting further after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed moderate job growth.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6939, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7040. The pair remains pressured while it stays under this dynamic barrier, though the Relative Strength Index (14) around 28 suggests oversold conditions that could slow immediate downside momentum rather than signal a clear reversal.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7040, which caps recovery attempts and defines the level bulls would need to reclaim to ease the present bearish bias. Before the dynamic barrier, the pscyhological level of 0.7000 would act as key hurdle. Looking down, the pair could extend its downside towards 0.6866 if if fails to hold the immedaite support at 0.6900.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.

Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.

When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.

It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet