AUD/USD’deki yükseliş ve Fed’in beklenen duruşu küresel piyasalarda yön arayışını sürdürdü

Kısaca

AUD/USD 0,38% yükseldi, haftalık kazanç yüzde 0,58 oldu; seviyesi 0,6983 ABD tüketici güveninin zayıflaması ve enflasyon beklentilerinin tüccarın odak noktasında kalması FED üyelerinin konuşmaları ve likidite kararları önümüzdeki günlerde piyasa yönünü belirleyecek

Ana mesele

ABD verileri Fed’in Ekim’de faizi sabit tutması olasılığını güçlendirirken AUD/USD yükseldi

Ne değişti?

Fed’in duruşunun değiştirilmesi için yeni sinyaller henüz netleşmedi; Aralık için 25 baz puanlık artırıma dair beklentiler sürüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Küresel döviz akımları ve risk iştahı kısa vadede Türkiye dahil yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir

Ne oldu?

AUD/USD 0,38% yükseldi ve haftalık kazanç 0,58% olurken 0,6983 seviyesinde kapattı.

Neden şimdi?

ABD tüketici güveni zayıflarken Fed’in duruşu için piyasa beklentileri ayarlandı.

Neden önemli?

Döviz çiftleri ve küresel risk iştahı kısa vadeli yön arayışında etkili olacak.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• Türkiye’de döviz işlemi yapan kurumlar
• ABD ve Avustralya finansal aktörleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasaları ve küresel hisse senedi trendleri etkilenebilir

Riskler

• FED söylemlerindeki değişkenlik
• Aralık için beklenen faiz artışının gerçekleşme olasılığının değişmesi
• küresel risk iştahında ani dönüşler

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD verileri ve Fed konuşmaları
• Aralık bekleyişleri için piyasa fiyatlamaları
• Döviz kuru hareketlerinin Türkiye üzerindeki etkisi
• Avustralya ekonomi verileri ve RBA notları

Haberin tamamı

AUD/USD rises 0.38% on Friday, securing a 0.58% weekly gain.US consumer sentiment falls to 46.3, while inflation expectations climb.Markets see an 81% chance of an October Fed hold and December hike.The Aussie Dollar ended Friday’s session on a positive note, gaining 0.38% and 0.58% weekly as the US Dollar trimmed some of its weekly gains, while US data confirmed investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady in the October meeting. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6983.AUD/USD closes at 0.6983 as softer US sentiment supports the Aussie despite renewed December hike betsMarket mood was upbeat on Friday, with Wall Street posting losses, as a solid earnings session drove US equities close to record highs. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six currencies, drifted higher by 0.12% to 102.73.Data from the US revealed that consumers are becoming pessimistic about the economy, as the Consumer Sentiment Index for October slipped to 46.3, down from 48.1 and missing estimates of 47.6. The same survey showed that inflation expectations for 1- and 5-year horizons rose, with the former from 4.6% to 4.7% and the latter from 3.4% to 3.5%.The FOMC minutes showed full support for a rate hike but revealed division: some saw it as precautionary, others as the start of a tightening cycle.Fed speakers continue this week. Fed Governor Waller favors more rate hikes, not necessarily consecutive. St. Louis Fed's Musalem says inflation is high and the strong labor market requires the Fed to address it.Money markets suggest no Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with 81% chance that rates will stay pat. For December, there's an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point increase to the Fed funds rate, based on Prime Terminal data.Over the next week, Australia’s economic docket will feature the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s minutes from its last meeting. Two days after that, employment data would dictate the Aussie Dollar’s direction.In the US, traders will focus on inflation data for consumers and producers, then look at Retail Sales, Fed speeches, and employment reports.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookAUD/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6984, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7089. The pair also remains below a well-defined horizontal barrier at 0.7198, suggesting rallies are likely to face selling pressure while price stays capped under these overhead levels. The Relative Strength Index (14) near 40 hints at weak but not extreme bearish momentum, aligning with a corrective phase rather than an oversold capitulation.On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50/100/200-day simple moving averages grouped near 0.7089, followed by the horizontal line at 0.7198, where previous supply is likely to re-emerge. On the downside, the broader structure is underpinned by several rising trend-line supports originating from the 0.68–0.69 area, which suggest that while the short-term bias is negative, the medium-term uptrend is still intact unless price decisively breaks below those ascending baselines.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Australian Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet