AUD/USD için 0,7000 seviyesi gündemde: ABD dolarında güçlenme ve 0,7100 kırılması ihtimali

Kısaca

AUD/USD 0,7000 yaklaşıyor; USD güçleniyor ve Haziran-Temmuz itibarıyla 0,7100 direnci gündemde Trump–Xi zirvesi ve Fed söylemleriyle iyimserlik yerine dikkat artıran veri akışı geldi Küresel döviz piyasalarında volatilite yükselirken, riskleri olan yatırımcılar için dikkatli izlenecek noktalar oluşuyor

Ana mesele

AUD/USD 0,7000 yaklaşırken ABD dolarının güçlenmesi ve 0,7100 direncinin kırılmasına yönelik ivme

Ne değişti?

Fed söylemleri ve Trump–Xi zirvesiyle piyasalardaki yön belirginleşti

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Döviz riski taşıyan portföylerde dalgalanma potansiyeli yükseldi

Ne oldu?

AUD/USD düşüş yönünde baskı altında; 0,7100 kırılması için ivme arıyor

Neden şimdi?

Fed söylemleri ve güçlü ABD verileri doların güçlenmesini destekliyor; ABD–İran/Hormuz durumu de baskıyı artırıyor

Neden önemli?

Küresel likidite ve emtia talepleri üzerinde FX hareketlerini tetikler; risk yönetimi etkilenir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Döviz pozisyonu olan şirketler
• portföy yöneticileri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasaları volatiliteyi artırabilir; ihracat-ve ithalat planları etkilenebilir

Riskler

• 0-2 adet aşırı boşluk riski ve geniş bantlarda hareket beklenebilir
• jeopolitik gelişmeler dalgalanmayı derinleştirebilir
• veri sürprizleri yön belirleyebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed yetkililerinin sonraki açıklamaları
• ABD veri akışındaki sürprizler
• 0,7100 kırılmasının gerçekleşip gerçekleşmeyeceği

Haberin tamamı

AUD/USD has come under extra downside pressure, approaching 0.7000.The US Dollar picks up pace following hawkish Fedspeak and solid data.All the attention will be on the Trump-Xi Summit on September 24.The Australian Dollar (AUD) has weakened markedly on Wednesday, prompting AUD/USD to breach the key 0.7100 contention zone with certain conviction and hit fresh seven-week lows.That said, spot has retreated for the third consecutive day, almost exclusively on the back of the strong resurgence of the demand for the US Dollar (USD), which appeared reinforced by hawkish views from the Fed’s Barr in combination with solid advanced prints from the US business activity for the current month.Also adding extra support to the buck, there is still no important news regarding the likelihood of a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran-Hormuz crisis, while recent comments from President Trump at the UN General Assembly did nothing but add fuel to the fire… as per usual.Meanwhile, and looking at the broader picture, the pair is expected to maintain its positive stance on the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish policy bias and elevated inflation at home.Australia’s growth holds up, but momentum softensAustralia’s economy continues to compare favourably with many of its G10 peers, supported by domestic demand and positive economic growth. Persistent inflation also supports the RBA’s cautious, data-dependent policy stance.However, business activity seems to have lost some momentum after preliminary data showed the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Manufacturing cooling to 49.3 in September and easing to 51.4 when it comes to Services, from 52.0 and 53.2, respectively.Trade data provided another positive signal: Australia recorded an A$1.923 billion surplus in July, adding to the A$2.341 billion surplus registered in June.Growth figures were less encouraging, however. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter of 2026, up from 0.3%, while annual growth came in at 2.1%, down from the previous 2.5% yearly expansion.The labour market also showed signs of losing momentum in July. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5%, while Employment Change declined by 15.8K following a revised increase of 80.3K in the previous month.Inflation remains the main constraint after July data showed price pressures running well above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band, suggesting that the return to target could remain uneven and prolonged. That said, the headline inflation eased to 3.5% in July (from 3.8%), while underlying price pressures tracked by the Trimmed Mean held steady at 3.6%.The Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Inflation Expectations measure reinforced that view, holding steady at 4.9% in September.The figures leave the RBA’s inflation task incomplete. Policymakers expect inflation to return to target only in early 2028, keeping the emphasis on patience rather than an imminent policy pivot.China stabilises without providing a fresh boostChina is providing stability for the Australian economy, but not the growth impulse that has supported the Australian Dollar during previous expansions.The Chinese economy grew by 4.3% YoY in the April-June period, while Industrial Production growth regained traction, expanding by 5.2% YTD, and the trade surplus widened to $119.1 billion in July, supported by decent increases in both imports and exports. However, on the downside, consumer spending remained sluggish after Retail Sales rose by only 0.4 % from a year earlier.In addition, business surveys presented a mixed picture: the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August from 49.2, while the Services PMI remained unchanged at 49.0. On the other hand, private measures like RatingDog remain in expansionary territory, with Manufacturing at 51.5 (from 50.9) and Services at 51.4 (from 50.4).Disinflationary pressures seem to have taken a breather in August, with the CPI gaining 0.8% YoY, up from 0.5%, while prices rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Producer Prices rose by 3.8% over the previous twelve months, down from the 3.5% increase recorded in the previous month.The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its Loan Prime Rates unchanged early on Monday, maintaining the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.China is therefore neither providing a major boost nor creating a significant drag. Unless the data reveal a clearer acceleration or deterioration, its influence on AUD/USD is likely to remain limited.RBA keeps the door open to further tighteningThe RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged on August 11 and retained a clear tightening bias, citing above-target inflation and upside risks to the outlook. The decision to hold rates was unanimous.The Minutes maintained that cautious but hawkish stance. Several officials warned that inflation risks could materialise, which would leave the Board ready to raise rates. Potential sources of pressure include increased investment in data centres, cost pass-through and higher energy prices.Policymakers discussed a 25-basis-point increase but concluded that the current policy setting was sufficiently restrictive. They also acknowledged more balanced risks, including falling house prices and the possibility that inflation could decline without causing significant damage to employment.Fresh GDP, labour-market and inflation figures are expected before the September meeting, leaving policy dependent on the incoming data.So far, investors are pricing in roughly 42 basis points of tightening by year-end and expect the RBA to hike the OCR by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 29.AUD/USD outlook: 0.7200 remains the key testBase caseThe medium-term outlook remains tilted towards further gains, as long as AUD/USD stays above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently around 0.7020. This view, however, appears somewhat dented in light of the ongoing deep pullback in the pai

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet