Avrupa Merkez Bankası Beklentileri Damps girdabında euro değer kaybı sürüyor ve ABD verileri izlemede ana gündem olurken

Kısaca

EUR/USD 1,3335 yakınında seyrediyor; Lagarde'ın şahin olmayan duruşu etkili oldu ABD için Fed ekim toplantısında olası faiz artırımı yüzde 68 olarak fiyatlanıyor; Aralık için yüzde 95 ihtimali mevcut ECB'nin ekim toplantısında adım atması olası mı tartışılır; Almanya Ağustos perakende verileri izlenecek

Ana mesele

Euro, Lagarde'ın şahin olmayan mesajlarına rağmen 1,1350 seviyesinin yakınında baskılanıyor

Ne değişti?

Lagarde'ın şahin olmayan duruşu piyasa frekansını değiştirdi; Fed ve ECB arasındaki fark belirginleşiyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa dalgalanmaları, döviz işlemleri ve ihracat odaklı şirketler için kur riskini artırabilir

Ne oldu?

EUR/USD 1,3335 civarında seyretti; Lagarde'ın şahin olmayan duruşu piyasa beklentilerini değiştirdi

Neden şimdi?

ABD verileri ve Avrupa arasında faiz farkı tartışmaları sürüyor; Ekim toplantısı öncesi fiyatlamalar değişti

Neden önemli?

Kur hareketleri, ihracat ve maliyet enflasyonu üzerinden geniş etkiler doğurabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yabancı yatırımcılar
• İçeride ihracat yapan firmalar
• Perakende ve tüketici sektörü
• Kamu borçlanma maliyetleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasa, kur ve getiriler tarafında volatilite artışına gidiyor

Riskler

• Fed kararları bekleniyor; ECB için ekim toplantısında belirsizlik
• Enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu etkileyebilir
• Kur hareketleri ticari maliyetleri etkileyebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD İş gücü verileri (Eylül)
• ECB iletişim mesajları ve olası ekim adımları
• Alman perakende verileri ve gelecek ay takviminin yönü

Haberin tamamı

EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.3335 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. ECB’s Lagarde leaned against market bets for an October rate hike.Markets currently see a 68% odds of a Fed rate hike in October. The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.3335 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's dovish tilt. Germany’s August Retail Sales data is due later on Wednesday.ECB’s Lagarde said on Tuesday that rising bond yields will curb economic expansion and limit the transfer of elevated energy costs to inflation. She added that the central bank should adopt a “measured response as appropriate to keep inflation in check” with second-round effects so far absent. Traders pared monetary-tightening bets and now see a less than 40% chance of a hike by the ECB in the October policy meeting, according to Bloomberg. "Her remarks confirm our suspicion that if one central bank hikes in October, it will be the Fed, and not the ECB," says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING.Across the pond, the heightened expectations for more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes are keeping the Greenback up. Traders will closely monitor the release of the US jobs data for September on Friday. Economists expect the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to show an increase of 90,000 job additions in September, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 68% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and a 95% chance of an increase in December, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.Euro holds firm as ECB tones down October hike expectationsAnalysts at ING note that the Euro “held up relatively well yesterday considering the slew of dovish-leaning comments by ECB President Lagarde,” even as those remarks “favoured a widening in the SOFR-ESTR 2yr swap to beyond 155bp.” They highlight that the spread is “now not far from the 163bp max width reached in early July,” underscoring how rate differentials have moved further in favour of the US.According to ING, Lagarde “seemed willing to tone down some market enthusiasm about an October hike,” arguing that “tight financial conditions are limiting the pass-through of energy costs to the broader economy.” She also “stressed that the ECB should adopt a ‘measured response’ given no evidence of second-round effects,” reinforcing the impression of a more cautious policy stance.ING writes that her remarks “confirm our suspicion that if one central bank hikes in October, it will be the Fed, and not the ECB,” with current market “pricing… now 17bp and 9bp, respectively.” Even so, the bank’s macro team “thinks both will wait until December, hence our baseline view for a higher EUR/USD by year-end.”Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative outlook under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands 20-period middle SMA. Price is pressed toward the lower end of the recent range, with the Bollinger lower band offering the nearest technical floor, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 23.7 sits in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet reversed.On the topside, initial resistance appears at the Bollinger 20-period middle SMA around 1.1500, followed by the 100-day SMA near 1.1520, with the upper Bollinger band further up, near 1.1705, reinforcing a wider supply zone should a corrective bounce unfold. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the Bollinger lower band at 1.1290; a decisive break below this level would open the door to additional losses, while holding above it would keep the pair in a oversold consolidation under heavy overhead resistance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.

EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.

The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.

The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.

Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet