Avrupa para birimi Euro, petrol fiyatlarındaki yükseliş ve Fed verileriyle baskı altında kalıyor

Kısaca

EUR/USD 1,1225 civarında seans kaybı kaydetti; Salı günkü yükseliş telafi oluyor Almanya sanayi üretimi eylül ayında %2,0 yükseldi; aylık ve yıllık veriler olumlu Piyasalar yağışlı risk havasında petrol fiyatlarındaki baskı ve Fed kararlarıyla yön bulacak

Ana mesele

EUR/USD paritesi petrol fiyatlarındaki yükseliş ve Fed verileriyle aşağı yönlü baskı altında kaldı

Ne değişti?

Zayıf iniş hareketiyle 1,1225 civarında seans kayıpları belirginleşti

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalar, euro bölgesine ilişkin risk iştahını etkileyebilir ve döviz piyasalarında volatiliteyi artırabilir

Ne oldu?

EUR/USD, Salı günkü yükselişi geri vererek 1,1225 civarında seans kaybı gördü.

Neden şimdi?

Kamuya açık Fed tutanakları ve petrol fiyatlarındaki baskı bugün piyasaları etkiledi.

Neden önemli?

Döviz ve enerji maliyetleri, Avrupa büyümesini ve enflasyonu yakından etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Döviz yatırımcıları
• Şirketler ve ihracat odaklı sektörler
• Tüketici maliyetleri/yatırımcı güveni

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz ve enerji piyasalarında volatilite artabilir; finansal piyasalarda likidite baskısı görülebilir

Riskler

• Petrol fiyatlarında yükselişin sürmesi
• Fed politikası beklentilerinin değişmesi
• Avrupa büyümesinin zayıf kalması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed tutanakları için özet mesajlar
• Brent petrol fiyatlarının 100 dolar/varil üstünde kalıp kalmayacağı
• Almanya ve Euro Bölgesi verileriyle birleşen synak hareketleri

Haberin tamamı

EUR/USD gives away Tuesday's gains on Wednesday and drops to session lows at 1.1225 so far.German Industrial Production beat expectations in September, but Brent Oil prices above $100 weigh heavily on the Euro.The US Dollar appreciates against its main peers with all eyes on the minutes of the latest Fed meeting.The Euro (EUR) heads south against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, giving away Tuesday's gains weighed by rising Oil prices and broad-based US Dollar strength ahead of the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The EUR/USD pair is trading at session lows in the area of 1.1225, down from Tuesday’s highs at 1,1275, and unfazed by the strong German Industrial Production release.Data from the German official statistics office revealed that the country’s factory output bounced up 2% in September, largely reversing August's 1.2% decline and beating expectations of a 0.5% increment. Year-over-year, Industrial Production increased 2.3%, following a 1.6% contraction in the previous month.Markets have ignored these figures, as a mild risk-averse mood prevails, with fresh tensions in the Middle East boosting Oil prices again. The price of the Brent Oil barrel has climbed back above $100, levels that pose critical pressure on the Eurozone’s economic growth.Le Pen’s savings plans thrilled investors on TuesdayThe Euro found some relief on Tuesday as the far-right Marine Le Pen, the best-positioned candidate to win next year’s presidential elections, announced a plan to cut spending. Le Pen vowed to save costs by EUR 140 billion in the next five years, and bring the fiscal deficit to levels below 3% by 2030 from the current 5.1%. The plan thrilled investors. French government bond yields retreated from multi-decade highs and the EUR/USD bounced to the upper range of the 1.1200s from 17-month lows, near 1.1160 on Monday.The US Dollar, on the other hand, is regaining lost ground against its most peers on Wednesday, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due later in the day. The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years and hinted at further tightening ahead. Soft US inflation and labour figures have prompted investors to dial down hopes of another rate hike in October. The overall US economy, however, remains resilient, and inflation is well above the Fed's target, which keeps futures markets hopeful that the bank will hike rates again in December and at least one more time in the first quarter of 2027, according to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Federal Statistics Office of Germany

Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet