Avustralya Enflasyonu Ağustos’ta Yıllık %4 Artış Gösterdi; Piyasalar Verileri Takipte Kaldı

Kısaca

Ağustos için CPI yıllık %4,0 ve aylık %0,4 artış açıklandı; AUD/USD 0,6970’e geriledi Geçmiş ayların enflasyon baskısının sürmesi nedeniyle politika beklentileri izlenecek Piyasalarda enflasyon görünümü ve para politikası kararları yakından takip edilecek

Ana mesele

Ağustos ayında Avustralya CPI’si yıllık olarak %4 artış kaydetti.

Ne değişti?

Yıllık artış beklentilerle uyumlu olsa da aylık veride 0,4 artış geçirildi.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular enflasyon görünümü ve para politikası beklentileri konusunda dikkatli olmalı.

Ne oldu?

Ağustos ayında CPI yıllık %4 artarken aylık olarak %0,4 artış kaydedildi; Trimmed Mean CPI yıllık %3,6 oldu.

Neden şimdi?

Veri yaklaşan politika tartışmalarını etkileyebilir ve döviz/piyasa hareketlerini yönlendirebilir.

Neden önemli?

Enflasyon eğilimleri politika iletişimini ve küresel ticaret akışlarını etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankaları
• İthalat/İhracat şirketleri
• Tüketiciler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Para politikası yönlendirmeleri ve döviz piyasalarında kısa vadeli dalgalanma potansiyeli artırdı.

Riskler

• Döviz volatilitesi artabilir
• Enflasyon hedeflerinden sapma endişesi yükselebilir
• Küresel risk iştahı yatırım kararlarını etkileyebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Bir sonraki açıklanacak politika adımları
• Tüketici güveni ve enflasyon farkları
• Merkez bankası iletişimi
• Gelişmiş ekonomilerin politika yönlendirmeleri

Haberin tamamı

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-over-year (YoY) in August, compared to a 3.5% growth reported in July, the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday.The market forecast was a 4.0% print for the reported period. The monthly Consumer Price Index climbed by 0.4% in August, compared to the previous reading of a rise of 1.0%, in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the Trimmed Mean CPI increased 0.2% MoM in August. Annually, the Trimmed Mean CPI advanced 3.6% YoY during the same period.AUD/USD reaction to Australia's Consumer Price Index dataThe Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers following Australia's CPI report. The AUD/USD pair is down 0.25% on the day to trade at 0.6970 at the press time.

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

How does inflation influence the price of Gold?

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.

Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet