Avustralya Merkez Bankası Faiz Artışı Beklentiyle Piyasalar Dengeleniyor

Kısaca

Olay: Avustralya Hükümeti Hazinesinin Faiz Artışı Beklentisi yaygın Neden: Piyasalar ve yatırımcılar kısa vadeli etkileri yakından izliyor Sonuç: Piyasa tepkisi sınırlı oldu; karar sonrası hareketler izlenecek noktaya işaret ediyor

Ana mesele

Faiz artışının yaygın olarak beklenmesi, kur ve varlık fiyatları üzerinde kısa vadeli etkilerin sınırlı kalmasıyla sonuçlanabilir

Ne değişti?

Piyasa tepkisi sınırlı kaldı; AUD/USD 0,7012 seviyesinde geriledi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar için kısa vadede belirsizlik azalabilir

Ne oldu?

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, son faiz artışının geniş çapta beklendiğini belirtti; AUD/USD 0,7012 seviyesinde işlem gördü

Neden şimdi?

Global baskılar ve para politikası duruşu etkisi sürüyor; ancak beklenen kararlar güveni pekiştirdi

Neden önemli?

Piyasalar için belirsizliğin azalması ve kur hareketlerinin kontrol altında olması önemli

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kredi verenler ve kredi kullananlar
• İş çevreleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Kısa vadede kur istikrarı ve volatilite azalması beklenir

Riskler

• Piyasa tepkisinin beklenenin ötesinde sertleşmesi
• Enflasyon ve faiz arasındaki dengenin bozulması riski

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Merkez Bankası iletişimi ve gelecek toplantı tutanakları
• Ekonomik verilerin enflasyon yönü
• Sermaye akımlarında net yön

Haberin tamamı

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Tuesday that the latest interest rate hike was widely expected and anticipated, and that doesn’t make it any easier for people, Reuters reported. Chalmers added that the country is not immune from global pressures but is better placed and better prepared to confront them.Key quotesToday’s interest rate rise was widely expected and anticipated, that doesn’t make it any easier for people.We’re not immune from global pressures but we are better placed and better prepared to confront them.Market reaction At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.08% on the day at 0.7012.

What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet