Avustralya Merkez Bankası’nda faizleri artırma baskısı güçleniyor: 29 Eylül toplantısında 25 baz puanları mümkün

Kısaca

RBA’nın 29 Eylül toplantısında 25 baz puanlık artış olasılığı yüzde 94 olarak öne çıkıyor; önceki adımlarda toplam 75 baz puan artış kaydedildi. Enflasyonun kökleşme riski nedeniyle politika sıkılaşması büyümeyi etkileyebilir; bu durum küresel risk iştahını değiştirebilir. Piyasalarda faiz farklarına dair beklentiler ve AUD değerinde dalgalanma izlenecek noktalar arasında yer alıyor

Ana mesele

RBA’nin enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle daha fazla faiz artırımı ihtimali güçleniyor

Ne değişti?

RBA’nın enflasyonun kökleşme riski nedeniyle ek faiz artışlarına kapısı açık görünüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Kamuoyunun ve yatırımcıların Türkiye dahil küresel piyasalarda faiz farklarına duyarlılığı artabilir

Ne oldu?

RBA, enflasyonun yüksek kalması nedeniyle daha fazla faiz artışına ihtiyaç duyulduğunu belirtti; piyasalarda 29 Eylül toplantısında 25 bp artış beklentisi arttı.

Neden şimdi?

Yıl içinde toplam 75 bp artış yapıldığı ve enflasyon riskinin kökleşebileceği endişesi ön plana çıktı.

Neden önemli?

Faiz artış beklentileri, küresel sermaye akımlarını ve dönüşüm maliyetlerini etkiler; özellikle döviz ve borçlanma maliyeti üzerinde belirgin etkisi olur.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırımcılar
• Türkiye dahil gelişmekte olan piyasalar
• Kamu ve özel borçlanma maliyetleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finans ve döviz piyasaları baskı altında olabilir

Riskler

• Enflasyon baskısının beklenenden uzun sürmesi
• Piyasalarda kısa vadeli volatilite artabilir
• Küresel faiz farkları satış baskısı doğurabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 29 Eylül toplantısının sonucundaki karar
• RBA’nın enflasyon habercisi göstergeleri
• Döviz kurları ve AUD hareketleri

Haberin tamamı

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter confirmed the need for further rate hikes this year, to keep inflation in check. This has increased the chances for a rate increase at the September 29 meeting.In a podcast, Hunter stated the board’s concern that inflation has been too high for too long, with increasing risks of it becoming entrenched. Hunter added that “We can see lots of reasons why inflation might be a bit higher than what we currently think.”Traders should note that the RBA has raised rates three times by 75 basis points this year, bringing the cash rate back to post-pandemic levels of 4.35%.Money markets forecast a 94% probability that the RBA will increase rates by 25 basis points at the September 29 meeting, with expectations centered around this move, as per Prime Terminal.RBA Implied forward curve - Source: Prime Terminal

What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet