Batı’nın Venezüela’ya Yönelik Yüz Yıllık Petrol Stratejisinin Sonuçları Şimdi Netleşiyor

Kısaca

303 milyar varil rezervin bulunduğu Venezüela’da büyüklük ve niteliğe dair hem gelen bilgiler hem de şirketlerin planları dikkat çekiyor Yeni MOUs ve dijital çözümlerle üretim ve geliştirme faaliyetlerinin yakın zamanda canlanması bekleniyor Gözlem: tedarik zinciri güvenliği ve yatırım eğilimleri yakında netleşecek; izlenecek noktalar arasında verimlilik ve maliyet etkileri var

Ana mesele

Batı’nın Venezüela’ya yönelik yüz yıllık petrol stratejisinin sonuçları netleşiyor

Ne değişti?

Yeni MOUs ve rezerv profili bilgileri operasyonel canlanma ihtimalini artırıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji arz güvenliği ve yatırım kararlarında belirsizlik artıyor

Ne oldu?

Venezuela’da Orinoco ve Maracaibo havzalarında ağır ve hafif petrol üretimine yönelik yatırımlar artıyor; Halliburton ile Eneva ve WESCA arasında MOUs imzalandı.

Neden şimdi?

Rusya’ya karşı yaptırımlar nedeniyle Batı yeni tedarik zincirleri arıyor; mevcut kapasitenin yeniden devreye alınması gündemde.

Neden önemli?

Küresel petrol dengeleri üzerinde etkisi olası; Türkiye ve bölge için enerji güvenliği ile maliyetler önemli göstergeler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Küresel enerji piyasası ve servis tedarik zincirlerinde nabız değişiklikleri beklenebilir

Riskler

• Fiyat dalgalanmaları
• Politik riskler özellikle dış yatırım üzerinde baskı yaratabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• MOUs’nin uygulanabilirliği
• Orinoco beltiyle üretim kapasitelerindeki değişim
• Küresel stok ve boru hattı güvenliği etkileri

Haberin tamamı

Centuries ago, the untamed jungles of Venezuela's Orinoco Basin helped power the myth of El Dorado, a city made entirely of gold. But for the new adventurers staking a claim in the country's black gold instead, there is no myth involved, but rather the world's largest crude oil reserves of 303 billion barrels.

The latest two firms to sign agreements in this black gold rush are the U.S.'s Halliburton and France's TotalEnergies, with each having played central roles in the West's search to replace lost oil and gas supplies resulting from sanctions on Russia after it invaded on 24 February 2022.

So, what is the West's plan in Venezuela from now on and will it work Oilfield service provider Halliburton has signed two memoranda of understanding MOUs with Brazil's largest private natural gas operator, Eneva, and engineering firm WESCA West-Construcciones, which is focused on developing heavy oil resources in the Orinoco and Maracaibo basins. The U.S. giant will deploy its digital technologies and subsurface interpretation tools to handle field evaluation and development planning.

According to data from Baker Hughes, there were only two active onshore drilling rigs in Venezuela at the end of July, although since then SLB has stated that it has as many as 15 rigs already positioned in the country that could return to service within one year. In effect, then, Halliburton is positioning itself to capture the immediate wave of service and capital expenditure spending required to bring the Orinoco Belt's drilling capacity back to life.

Related The World's Gold Producers Are Starting to Hoard Their Own Gold Although no details were publicly available on the deal that Total signed with PDVSA, a senior source who works closely with the European Union's EU energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week that among the oil fields included is Travi, a major light crude oil field located in the northern part of eastern Venezuela's Monagas state.

In contrast to the 75% or so of the country's oil reserves that are classified as 'heavy', the northern Monagas fields -- including Travi, Orocual, and Jusepin -- contain predominantly light crude oil that is often used to dilute extra-heavy crude grades. The new deal marks a reversal of TotalEnergies previous stance on Venezuela, which saw it withdraw from the joint venture Petrocedeno in 2021.

The recent agreement may well signal a broader shift by European majors back into the country on the basis that legal protections for them under the post-Nicols Maduro government are tough enough to protect their interests over the long term. In this context, the Orinoco Belt-block operated by Petrocedeno is now part of the agreement signed between the U.S. Departments of State and Defense and North American Blue Energy Partners in late August.

This agreement saw Washington take over more than a fifth of Venezuela's oil reserves in a deal signed by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on 2 September, which was characterised by U.S. President Donald Trump as being "the biggest oil deal in world history". That looks a reasonable statement, given that it covers 65 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves across 17 fields -- nearly 1.5 times the size of the U.S.'s entire current territorial reserves of around 46 billion barrels.

The 100-year length of the concession also dwarfs the typical 20-to-30-year span of modern oil concessions. Unsurprisingly, the private entity driving the deal -- North American Blue Energy Partners NABEP -- has become the second-largest private oil company by reserves in the world after ExxonMobil, while the U.S. Department of War holds a 35% equity stake.

The extraordinary move was, in turn, part of Trump's second-presidency vision of the world, as delineated in the U.S.'s '2025 National Security Strategy'.

It states "After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American pre-eminencein the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region." It adds "We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere. Venezuela is part of what Washington sees as its own primary hemisphere.

These ideas dovetail with the 31 August White House Fact Sheet which, under the sub-heading 'Reasserting The Monroe Doctrine & Expelling Foreign Adversaries From Our Hemisphere', states "The majority of the incremental oil fields to be operated by NABEP were previously controlled or operated by Russian and Chinese firms, or by corrupt cronies of Maduro and [Hugo] Chavez." It continues "These malign foreign actors looted Venezuela's resources for the benefit of American adversaries like Cuba, Russia and China and failed to invest in Venezuela's infrastructure or development." The new deal with Venezuela, it adds, is precisely part of the re-establishment of the Monroe Doctrine, focused on "purging malign influence from our backyard and ensuring American dominance in our hemisphere is never again questioned".

With an eye, perhaps, on future energy security threats resulting from military actions by China, the Fact Sheet concludes "By working with both new and old partners, President Trump's Administration is forging new robust, strategic and defensible supply chains in our hemisphere to support the revitalization of our manufacturing and energy sectors after years of globalist decline." That said, although international oil companies' faith in the legal security surrounding their investments looks well placed, it is by no means guaranteed.

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Kaynaklar

• OilPrice.com