Bitcoin için 85.000–85.500 dolar aralığındaki satış duvarı ralliyi durduruyor

Kısaca

Bitcoin’de 85.000–85.500 dolar aralığında satış duvarı güçleniyor; fiyat bu bölgeyi kırmadan sınırlı kalıyor Glassnode’un yorumu, duvarın büyüdüğünü ve en önemli kısa vadeli direnç olduğunu gösteriyor Piyasa hacmi düşük; ETF akımlarıyla birlikte hareketler ihtiyatlı izlenecek

Ana mesele

Bitcoin için 85.000–85.500 dolar aralığında satış duvarı, rallinin uzamasını engelliyor

Ne değişti?

Kısa vadeli direnç bölgesi güçlenirken işlem hacmi zayıf kalıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Kısa vadede yatırımcılar için dikkatli olunmalı; direnç kırılmazsa kazançlar sınırlı olabilir

Ne oldu?

Binance üzerinde 85.000–85.500 dolar aralığında satış emirleri yoğunlaşıyor; piyasa düşüşünü engellemiş durumda

Neden şimdi?

Geçen hafta itibarıyla kısa vadeli direnç güçlenirken, işlem hacmi düşük seyrediyor ve rallinin devamı için talep yetersiz görünüyor

Neden önemli?

Direnç kırılmadıkça yükseliş için güvenli kapanışlar zorlaşıyor; yatırımcı güveni etkilenebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Kısa vadeli yatırımcılar
• Kâr realizasyonu yapanlar
• Kriz zamanında likiditeye ihtiyaç duyanlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasa genelinde volatilite ve likidite dinamizmi nedeniyle kısa vadeli rallinin** etkilenmesi muhtemel

Riskler

• Ralli erken vençe kapanabilir
• Dolar karşısında volatilite yükselir
• ETF taleplerinin zayıflığı ralliyi baskılayabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 85.500 dolar üzerinde kapanışlar rallinin güç kazanması için tetikleyici olabilir
• İşlem hacimlerinin normalleşmesi ralliyi destekleyebilir
• Çevredeki ETF akışları takip edilmeli
• Piyasa duyarlılığında ani dönüşler risk olarak izlenmeli

Haberin tamamı

Bitcoin faces resistance from a growing 85K-85.5K sell wall on Binance, with resting orders tripling since September 24.The top crypto remains above its True Market Mean at $77,200, roughly 8% below the market price.Long-term holders’ share of realized Bitcoin profits rose from 34% to 55% during the week ending September 29, signaling increased profit-taking.Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above key support levels, but a growing concentration of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance is preventing the top crypto from extending its recent advance, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.Bitcoin holds steady despite rising resistance near $85KIn a report on Wednesday, Glassnode noted that the resistance wall on Binance’s spot order book emerged on September 24 and has since tripled in size. Bitcoin has moved into the lower half of the zone but has failed to break through it, leaving the area as the most significant near-term resistance identified by Glassnode.“As long as those orders stay in place, the wall is the level that matters most. A sustained break above $85.5K would clear the largest resistance on the book,” Glassnode wrote.Wall Above Price Has Tripled. Source: GlassnodeWhile resistance has strengthened, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which stands at $73,300, signals that buyers are in profit.Glassnode noted that Bitcoin spent months above the metric during the 2023 and 2024 uptrends. A decline below $73,300 would, therefore, put recent buyers back in losses, as was the case for much of H1.Bitcoin has also remained above its True Market Mean since September 18. The metric currently stands at $77,200, around 8% below the market price.“The True Market Mean is the first support to watch: a daily close back below $77.2K would end the current stretch,” Glassnode stated.Bitcoin ETF inflows fade after early September surgeHowever, the market still lacks strong trading activity. Combined Bitcoin volume across spot exchanges and US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is averaging about $6.4 billion per day, close to the bottom of its range since the launch of the ETFs.“With so little volume behind it, the rally remains early and speculative and broad demand has yet to arrive,” Glassnode stated.The firm suggested that a sustained increase in volume while Bitcoin remains above the True Market Mean would provide evidence that the uptrend is gaining wider support.ETF demand has also weakened after buying surged earlier in the month. US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached approximately $1 billion on both September 21 and September 22, with the first day marking the largest inflow in almost a year. Since then, inflows have declined on every trading day, falling to $24 million on Monday.“The funds are still buying, but at a small fraction of the pace of those two days,” the report noted.ETF Inflows Posted Their Biggest Day In Almost A Year, Then Faded. Source: GlassnodeOn the other hand, profit-taking remains comparatively subdued. Weekly Net Realized Profit/Loss is still well below the levels recorded around the 2024 and 2025 market tops.However, long-term holders (LTHs) are accounting for a growing share of realized profits. Their realized profit level nearly doubled in the 7 days ending September 29 compared with the breakout week, while their share of total realized profit increased from 34% to 55%.Bitcoin has also maintained a short-term advantage over the S&P 500, although the gap has narrowed. Over the past week, BTC fell 2.9%, compared with a 1.2% decline for the index.Bitcoin is Strong Relative To Equities. Source: Glassnode“If the green stretch turns red as August's sessions leave the window, the edge over stocks would be gone,” Glassnode added.Bitcoin is trading at $83,600, down 0.1% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet