BoE Baş Ekonomisti Pill: Şu Anda Yapılan Artış Başlangıç Göstergesi Olmamalı

Kısaca

BoE Baş Ekonomi Poli̇tikasında değişiklik sinyali yok; Pill artışın zincir başlangıcı değildir dedi GBP/USD 1,3245 seviyesinde gün içi yükseliş %0,39 sağlayabildi Piyasa teyidi: BoE’nin agresif sıkılaştırma yoluna odaklanması azalıyor

Ana mesele

Şu anda yapılacak bir faiz artışının, gelecek artışların başlangıcı olduğunu göstermez

Ne değişti?

Pill, bir artışın zincirinin başlangıcı olarak algılanmamalı ifadesini yineledi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa beklentileri ve GBP değerlemeleri üzerinde net bir etkisi olabilir

Ne oldu?

BoE Baş Ekonomisti Pill, artışın hemen zincirin başlangıcı olarak görülmemesi gerektiğini söyledi

Neden şimdi?

Piyasalar 4 kez faiz artırımı fiyatlaması yaparken, daha temkin davranış arzusunu gösterdi

Neden önemli?

Piyasa güveni ve GBP yönleri, agresif yol yerine dengeli politika mesajını destekleyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kobiler
• GBP kullanıcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasaları üzerinde kısa vadede dalgalanma, GBP sınırlı yükseliş

Riskler

• Piyasa beklentilerinin yanlış okunması
• Bir sonraki iletişimde sürpriz olmaması
• Enflasyon görünümünün değişmemesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• BoE’nin yeni iletişim notu
• Bir sonraki toplantı tutanakları
• Piyasa hareketlerinin GBP/Dolar etkisi

Haberin tamamı

Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill, who has voted for a quarter-point interest rate hike in recent months, said on Thursday that we should not give impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increases.On Wednesday, Pill stated that he was more sceptical about market pricing of four increases to borrowing costs by the BoE over ‌the next year.Key quotesShould not give impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increasesBoE’s Pill tempers rate hike expectations, limiting GBP upsideThe drop in the FXS Speechtracker score to 3/10 from a historic 6.4/10 signals a clear dovish shift in tone from Bank of England Chief Economist Pill. By stressing that a hike now should not be seen as the start of a series of increases, Pill effectively pushes back against expectations of a sustained tightening cycle, capping immediate GBP support.This remark suggests the Bank of England is more focused on managing market expectations than on launching an aggressive policy path, which softens the perceived policy trajectory. For FX, the message reduces the appeal of GBP versus the Dollar and Euro, as investors may see any potential hike as a one-off adjustment rather than the beginning of a new bullish rate trend.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is up 0.39% on the day at 1.3245.

What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet