BOJ enflasyon baskılarıyla 2027’ye kadar politika faizini 2% hedefine taşıyabilir: analiz ve etkileri

Kısaca

BOJ, 2027’ye kadar oranı 2% hedefine taşıyabilir; mevcut 1,25% seviyesinde politika sürdürüyor Enflasyon baskılarının güçlenmesiyle enstrüman politikalar değişime açık görünüyor; ileriye dönük görünüm yükseliş beklentisi doğuruyor Küresel piyasalarda döviz ve finansal varlıklarda risk iştahı ve sermaye akışı izlenecek noktalar arasında

Ana mesele

BOJ’in 2027 yılına kadar politika faizini 2% seviyesine yükseltebileceği ihtimali güçleniyor

Ne değişti?

Enflasyon risklerinin artmasıyla yönlendirilmiş bir politika yol haritası öngörülüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırım kararlarında döviz ve Türk varlıkları üzerinde yönlendirici etkiler oluşabilir

Ne oldu?

BOJ’un politika faizini 1,25% olarak belirlediği bildirilmiş durumda ve 2027’ye kadar 2% hedefine doğru ilerleyebileceği yönünde görüşler dile getiriliyor

Neden şimdi?

Enflasyon baskıları ve enerji maliyetleri yükseklik riskiyle para politikalarının sıkılaşması gündeme geliyor

Neden önemli?

Faiz değişimleri küresel piyasalarda varlık fiyatlarını ve Türkiye’ye yönelik sermaye akışını etkileyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• küresel yatırımcılar
• kur riskine maruz olan şirketler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finansal piyasalar ve döviz piyasaları üzerinde volatilite artabilir

Riskler

• Enflasyon öngörülebilirliğin bozulması
• Piyasa tepkisinin aşırı hareketlenmesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• BOJ’in gelecek aylık/çeyreklik raporlarında faiz beklentileri
• Enerji maliyetleri ve döviz kuru gelişmeleri
• Uluslararası para politikası iletişimindeki değişiklikler

Haberin tamamı

The Bank of Japan could raise interest rates roughly once every three months and take its policy rate to 2% by around June next year as it seeks to contain mounting inflationary pressures, former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai said on Thursday, according to Reuters.The comments come after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% in September, its highest level in 31 years.

The move marked a further shift away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation risks broaden.Sakurai said the BOJ was increasingly focused on preventing price pressures from becoming entrenched, with higher fuel costs, a weak yen and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence adding to inflation risks, Reuters reported.Read more: Global Market: Chinese yuan dips as dollar gains on Fed hike bets; Trump-Xi talks eyeFuel costs add to inflation pressuresJapanese consumer prices could rise more than 3% by the end of this year and into early 2027 as higher energy costs feed through to households, Sakurai said, according to Reuters.Government data showed that Japan's crude oil import costs had risen by around 70%-80% in recent months from levels before the US attack against Iran in February, he said.

Higher energy costs are expected to put further upward pressure on consumer inflation.A weaker yen has also raised import costs, while strong AI-related demand has boosted manufacturers' profits and supported the economy.

These factors could contribute to broader demand-driven price pressures, Reuters reported.Read more: US market ends down as oil prices, Treasury yields riseInflation forecast upgrade in focusSakurai expects the BOJ to raise its inflation forecasts in its quarterly outlook report due in October.

He sees another rate increase as most likely in December, although a larger-than-expected upward revision to the inflation outlook could prompt the central bank to act as early as October, Reuters reported.Under his projected path, the BOJ could raise rates to 1.5% by the end of this year, followed by an increase to 1.75% in the first quarter of 2027 and 2% by June.The 2% level could represent the BOJ's terminal rate under current conditions, although Sakurai said rates could eventually move higher if inflation remains around 3%, according to Reuters.Yen remains under pressureThe BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% last week, with Governor Kazuo Ueda signalling that the central bank had entered a new phase focused on preventing inflation from overshooting its 2% target, Reuters reported.The yen nevertheless weakened after the decision as investors focused on two dissenting policymakers and questioned how quickly the BOJ would tighten policy.Sakurai said the two dissenters were unlikely to prevent further rate increases, but a faster pace of hikes may not provide significant support to the yen, according to Reuters.Investors could continue selling the yen and Japanese government bonds if Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pursues expansionary fiscal policy, Sakurai said.Even aggressive BOJ rate hikes may only slow the yen's decline unless there is a change in the government's fiscal policy stance, Reuters reported.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own.

These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets