BoJ SOP yükseliş öncesi düşünceler sınırlı kaldı; Ekim için piyasa göstergeleri karışık

Kısaca

BOJ SOP’ta Ekim için net sinyaller sınırlı kaldı; piyasa tepkisi sınırlı kaldı, ancak yön belirsizliği sürdü. BOJ’un sept. görüşmeleri sonrası 21% civarında Ekim için bir artış olasılığı vardı, fakat azaltılmış görünüyor. Piyasalarda USD/JPY ve US Dolar Endeksi Q4’e iyi yönlü hareket edebilir; dikkat edilecek göstergeler arasında UST getirileri ve ABD verileri var.

Ana mesele

BoJ SOP’un Ekim düşünceleri hakkında belirgin yön vermemesi, politika bekleyişlerinde kırılganlık yarattı

Ne değişti?

SOP’un netleşmemesi, Ekim toplantısı öncesi piyasa beklentilerini netleştirmedi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasa belirsizliği ve dalgalı getiriler yatırım kararlarını zorlaştırabilir

Ne oldu?

BOJ SOP tartışması, Ekim toplantısı için net bir yön göstermedi; piyasa tepkisi sınırlı kaldı.

Neden şimdi?

Ekim öncesi durgunlukla karşı karşıya olan karar mercilerinin net yönlendirme yapması zorlaştı.

Neden önemli?

Faiz farkları ve döviz hareketleri küresel piyasalarda volatiliteyi artırabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcı ve küresel piyasa oyuncuları
• Yabancı sermaye akışı
• Türkiye dahil bölgelerde getiri eğilimleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Asya piyasaları ve döviz piyasaları üzerinde baskı/volatilite artışına yol açabilir

Riskler

• Fiyat dalgalanması
• Net politika sinyallerinin belirsizliği
• ABD verileriyle uyumsuzluk

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• BOJ toplantı duyurusu
• Ekim toplantısı için netleşecek sinyaller
• ABD verileri ve UST getirileri
• USD/JPY hareketleri

Haberin tamamı

Asia market update: BOJ SOP revealed little on Oct thinking; JGB curve steepens to begin Q4; Iran received US feedback on ceasefire proposal; MU margins in focus; Mixed APAC PMIs and JP Tankan data.General trend and developments-BOJ confronted with mixed Tankan pre-Oct rate decision (**Note: The BoJ has raised its key rate six times under the current tightening cycle by a total of 125bps.): BOJ’s Sept Summary of Opinions suggested the central bank could be cautious about whether to raise rates back-to-back when it next meets in Oct.

This was consistent with the 2 dovish dissenters at the Sept decision. Oct rate hike expectations had already declined to about 21% ahead of the BOJ release. Fed rate hike expectations have also sharply declined after the NY’s Fed Williams recently expressed caution regarding back-to-back tightening moves, possibly leaving less work for the BOJ.-The BOJ’s Q3 Tankan Survey, incidentally, painted at mixed picture as the large manufacturing and CAPEX indices disappointed.

However, the BoJ noted that big manufacturers’ sentiment improved for a sixth consecutive quarter, recording its highest level since March 2018.

Current economic and price developments do not appear to have substantially accelerated compared to before, and in this context, it is not appropriate for the Bank to raise the policy interest rate at this time, according to one of the two dissenters at the Sept meeting.-Amid today’s macro releases out of Japan, USD/JPY and the US Dollar Index have gained to start Q4.

Focal points have included rate differentials, higher UST yields and the generally better than expected US data seen ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

The US labor market looks ‘pretty good’, according to the Fed’s Kashkari [formerly of PIMCO].-Global PMI Day: During the Global Asia September Manufacturing PMI release, Japan confirmed its 9th month of expansion, citing second-fastest employment rise since April 2018, selling prices recorded at one of its sharpest rates recorded since late-2022 rounding off the best quarterly performance since Q1 2014. South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Thailand all expanded with readings above >50.

Malaysia and Philippines contracted with readings below <50.-Aussie Aug Trade Surplus collapsed on higher imports. The data was driven by factors including higher imports of AI-related ADP equipment. Interestingly, Australia is also major in terms of diesel imports.-Are chipmaker margins peaking? Micron beat on all metrics, except Q1 gross margin guidance, which implies the possibility for a q/q decline.

Nvidia’s CFO had previously noted his company was resetting expectations on margins due to extreme pricing conditions for memory and higher component costs [post earnings comments from Aug 26th]. TSMC also guided its Q3 operating margins lower q/q [Jul 16th]. Samsung Electronics generally issues its Q3 prelim figures in early Oct.-Japanese chip-equipment cos. gain on Micron’s raised FY27 CAPEX guidance.

ASML’s shares should, also, be in focus for the European session.-Australian rare earths-related M&A: Lynas announced a A$968M all-stock deal for Meteoric Resources Limited.

The transaction brings Meteoric’s flagship Caldeira Rare Earth Project (“Caldeira”) and Brazilian expertise together with Lynas’ existing industry leading operations [Lynas statement].-Berkshire continues to raise its stake in homebuilder Lennar, despite higher long-term interest rates.-US equity FUTs +0.6% to +1.1% during Asia trading.Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)- Mon Sep 28th: IN Aug Industrial Production, MX Aug Trade Balance, (Mon night, AU RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement, JP July Leading Index & Coincident Indicator).- Tue Sep 29th: EU Sept Economic Confidence, CA July GDP, US Sept CB Consumer Confidence, US Aug JOLTS Job Openings, (Tue night, KR Aug Industrial Production & Retail Sales, JP Aug Industrial Production & Retail Sales, AU Aug Building Approvals, CN Sept Government & RatingDog Mnfg/Svcs/Composite PMI, JP Aug Housing Starts & Construction Orders, UK Q2 GDP).- Wed Sep 30th: IN Q4 Trade Balance, US Q2 GDP, US Aug PCE & Aug Core PCE, RU Aug GDP & Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate, CO BanRep Sept Interest Rate Decision, (Wed night, Global Asia Sept S&P/HCOB Mnfg PMIs Day, JP BoJ Sept Summary of Opinions, JP Q3 Tankan Index, KR Sept Prelim Trade Balance, AU Aug Trade Balance & RBA Financial Stability Review, ID Aug Trade Balance).- Thu Oct 1st: Global Europe Sept S&P/HCOB Mnfg PMIs Day, EU Aug Unemployment Rate, US Sept S&P/ISM Mnfg PMI, (Thu night, KR Sept CPI, JP Sept Tokyo CPI & Core CPI, JP Aug Unemployment Rate, HK Aug Retail Sales).- Fri Oct 2nd: AU Sept Preliminary CPI & Core CPI, US Sept Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls & Average Hourly Earnings & Participation Rate, SG Sept S&P Mnfg PMI, (Fri night, VN Q3 GDP, Sept CPI & Trade Balance & Retail Sales & Industrial Production).Holidays in Asia this week- Mon Sep 28th: Taiwan.- Thu Oct 1st: China, Hong Kong.- Fri Oct 2nd: China, India.Headlines/economic dataAustralia/New Zealand-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens -0.7% at 8,728.-(AU) Australia Aug Trade Balance (A$): 0.5B v 1.9Be.-(AU) Australian Financial Stability Review: Households, businesses well placed to whether slower economy, falling house prices - Statement.-(AU) Australia Aug Job Vacancies Q/Q: -0.9% v -2.1% prior.-(AU) Australia Sept Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 v 49.3 prelim (confirms 1st month of contraction).-(NZ) New Zealand Aug Building Permits M/M: +5.6% v -4.5% prior.-(NZ) NZD/USD NZD declines to the weakest level since November 2025.-(NZ) New Zealand sells NZ$450M vs.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet