Brent Fiyatı Yine 100 Dolar Seviyesi Etrafında Dalgalanıyor ve Küresel Piyasaları Etkiliyor

Kısaca

Brent yaklaşık 100 dolar/varil civarında işlem görüyor; piyasa analistine göre görünüm netleşiyor. Saudi Arabistan'ın Kasım teslimatı için resmi satış fiyatında beklenmedik kesinti yapması etkili oldu. VLCC kargo ücretleri son 12 ayda dramatik şekilde yükseldi; navlun maliyetleri fiyatları baskılıyor.

Ana mesele

Brent fiyatı psikolojik üç haneye yakın seviyelerde dalgalanıyor ve yaklaşık 100 dolar/varil civarında seyrediyor.

Ne değişti?

Fiyatın 100 dolar/varil çevresinde kalması, navlun maliyetleri ve Orta Doğu'dan ihracat hacmindeki değişimle açıklanıyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji ve taşıma maliyetleri dahil piyasa belirsizliği artabilir; yatırımcılar için volatilite yükselebilir.

Ne oldu?

Brent, psikolojik üç hanelerin üzerinde kalmaya çalışırken yaklaşık 100 dolar/varil seviyesinde dalgalanıyor.

Neden şimdi?

Tedarik akışlarındaki belirsizlik ve artan navlun maliyetleri fiyatları baskılıyor; İran-Hormuz hattında veri geride kalıyor.

Neden önemli?

Fiyat istikrarı enerji yatırım kararlarını ve taşıma maliyetlerini doğrudan etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Taşıyıcılar ve lojistik firmaları
• Tüketiciler ve görsel enerji maliyeti riski olan sektörler
• Enerji borsaları ve yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji piyasalarında volatilite ve risk primlerinde artış

Riskler

• Navlun maliyetlerinde sürpriz artışlar
• Tedarik akışlarındaki bozulmalar
• Fiyat yönünün netleşmemesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Kpler verileriyle nakliye hacmi değişimi
• LSEG navlun göstergelerindeki hareketler
• OPEC+ adımları ve resmi satış fiyatlarındaki değişimler

Haberin tamamı

<p>The price of the global crude benchmark, Brent, is once again toiling around $100 per barrel as its reasons for trading much beyond the psychological three-digit mark are being eroded.</p> <p>That’s what John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, which is part of the IP ICAP Group, said in a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.</p> <p>“It is … very hard to complete a picture on how many oil tankers are making passage through Hormuz for the data is retrospective rather than live,” Evans noted in the analysis.</p> <p>“With the attacks on shipping increased, there is little doubt that the reported return to export volumes from the Middle East to pre-war levels will be adjusted accordingly to the downside, but for now the assumption of more crude getting through has dampened price fervor,” he added.</p> <p>Evans also highlighted in the analysis that Saudi Arabia “unexpectedly” cut its official selling price (OSP) for November delivery into Asia.</p> <p>“Through a mixture of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and alternative delivery routes, the OPEC kingpin has increased exports to six million barrels per day, the monthly average of 2025, according to Kpler,” Evans pointed out.</p> <p>“However, to make this amount of crude more marketable, the cut in OSP is designed to take into account the record freight rates which are now dogging international shipping,” he added.</p><div id='newsArticleDianomoAds' style='display:none'><hr style='margin:5px 0px;'><div style='color:#808080;text-align: center;'>Advertisement - Scroll to continue</div><div class='dianomi_context' data-dianomi-context-id='4460'></div></div> <p>“According to LSEG data, booking a charter VLCC from the Persian Gulf to China a year ago was $80,000 per day, as of Friday it was $1.2 million per day.

Crude buyers need all the help they can get, and prices are thus adjusting,” he continued.</p> <p>Evans went on to note that there “remains a feeling” within the market that “we are nearing some sort of crisis point; an inflection, or nexus, whatever your favorite lexical expression is to indicate a convergence of events and an eventual outcome”.</p> <p>“When looking for a perfection in oil price prediction there is nothing finer when a sort of trinity makes itself known,” he said.</p> <p>“There ought to be a fundamental reason, geopolitical sympathy and aligning technical analysis which, when combined, will give a Eureka insight, well, hypothetically,” he added.</p> <p>“It seems our target date when we might expect to ponder a meeting of these conditions is the U.S.

mid-term elections.

It is also worth considering the Israeli General Election on the 27th of October,” he revealed.</p> <p>“The trouble with this, is, as much as any of us want to believe that we are heading for a confluence, the reality is that we are faced with a delta,” Evans warned.</p> <p>“Our market drivers are now widespread, as yet unseen, and often unconsidered and each rivulet spreading into the unknown need be explored for being a breakthrough or indeed a dead end,” he continued.</p> <p>Evans stated in the analysis that “war is a villainous bed fellow to be relied upon in giving reliable data or even narrative”.</p> <p>He pointed out that when U.S.

President Donald Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open, “the prices of oil fall making them more tolerable for U.S. customers and reducing Iranian petrodollar income”.

He added, however, that “a reverse shout by Iranian hierarchy acts in the opposite”.</p> <p><strong>Oil Caught Between Two Forces</strong></p> <p>In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, outlined that, from Zaye Capital Markets’ view, oil “remains caught between two competing forces: improving physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk”.</p> <p>“Middle East crude exports have recovered sharply, with Gulf flows excluding Iran returning to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, while emergency stock releases are adding further barrels to the system,” Aslam noted.</p> <p>“That improves the immediate supply picture, but shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz and continued tension involving Iran still keep freight, insurance and disruption premiums elevated,” he added.</p> <p>President Trump’s latest comments reinforce this split, according to Aslam.</p> <p>“He says gasoline pressure is now being driven more by refinery problems than the Strait itself, expects gasoline to ‘DROP LIKE A ROCK’ when the war ends, and says both Europe and the U.S.

are releasing diesel into the market,” Aslam pointed out.</p> <p>“Those remarks are bearish for crude if improving oil flows and reserve releases continue, but refinery outages, attacks on Russian processing capacity, and uncertainty around Iran remain supportive for refined products and keep part of the geopolitical premium alive,” he said.</p> <p>“This is why oil can soften even while diesel and product markets remain tight: crude availability is improving faster than refining capacity and product supply,” he added.</p> <p>Aslam went on to state that yesterday’s U.S.

economic data added another layer to the oil outlook.</p> <p>“September ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, while new orders stood at 59.8.

Employment improved to 50.1 from 47.8, but prices paid climbed to 74.0 from 72.6,” he pointed out.</p> <p>“These figures show that demand conditions remain expansionary, which supports expectations for continued transport, logistics, and industrial fuel consumption,” he said.</p> <p>“At the same time, the sharp rise in input prices shows that inflation pressure has not fully disappeared, which can keep monetary conditions restrictive and eventually weigh on demand if borrowing costs stay high for longer,” he added.</p> <p>Aslam went on to note that, with no major U.S.

economic release scheduled today, Zaye Capital Markets expects oil prices to react more heavily to Middle East exports, refinery disruptions, inventory data, the U.S.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• Rigzone