BSE hisseleri son dönemde düşüşte; Macquarie olumlu, Jefferies temkinli — piyasa yorumu ve riskler

Kısaca

BSE hisseleri son dönemde %düşüşte; hedefler Macquarie: 4.000 rs, Jefferies: 2.940 rs 52 haftalık zirve 4.446,80 rs iken şu an ~3.112 rs seviyesinde işlem görüyor Piyasa gelişmeleri ve rakip NSE’nin market girişinin etkisi izlenecek; dikkat edilmesi gereken riskler arasında STT artışı ve CAS mevcut

Ana mesele

BSE hisseleri son dönemde düşüşte kalırken, Macquarie olumlu görüş verirken Jefferies temkinli

Ne değişti?

Görüş ayrılığı sürdürüyor; Macquarie olumlu hedef fiyat belirlerken Jefferies temkinli kaldı

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar için hisselerin karşılaştırmalı değerleme ve riskler önemli

Ne oldu?

BSE hisseleri 2+% düşüş kaydetti; Macquarie olumlu görüş verirken Jefferies temkinli

Neden şimdi?

NSE’nin piyasa girişi ve brüt gelir bileşenlerindeki değişkenlik nedeniyle analistler karışık

Neden önemli?

Borsa endeksinin yönü, yerli ve yabancı yatırımcı kararlarını etkiliyor

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Brokeraj şirketleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Hisse senedi ve finans sektörü üzerinde dalgalanma potansiyeli

Riskler

• Regülasyon baskıları
• Kazanç tahminlerinde sapma
• Kamu bankalarının performans etkisi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Macquarie’nin hedefine yaklaşım
• Jefferies’ın risk senaryoları
• STT ve CAS etkileri

Haberin tamamı

Shares of BSE dropped more than 2% on Monday amid the overall downturn in stock market, with investors assessing mixed brokerage views for the stock that has fallen more than 30% from its May high.BSE shares fell to Rs 3,112 apiece on the NSE on Monday. It is currently down more than 30% from its 52-week high of Rs 4,446.80 apiece which it had hit on May 27 this year.

The stock has fallen around 8% in a month, but gained 19% in 2026 so far and 54% in one year.In the longer term, BSE shares have delivered multibagger returns of 627% in three years and a whopping 2,122% in five years.

Asia’s oldest stock exchange currently has a market capitalisation of less than Rs 1.29 lakh crore.The shares of the company have been closely tracked last week as rival NSE made its much-awaited market debut, turning attention towards capital market stocks.Also Read | NSE IPO impact on BSE explained: How the mega listing may benefit a rivalMacquarie on BSE share priceMacquarie gave BSE the tag of a ‘Challenger’ as it initiated coverage on the stock last week with an ‘Outperform’ rating with a target price of Rs 4,000 apiece.

This implies an upside potential of more than 25% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 3,191.50 apiece on NSE.The international brokerage noted that the stock exchange is a share gainer in a 12% TAM CAGR market, which can drive 16% FY26-30 revenue growth and margins toward 70%. CAS however is a near-term drag.Jefferies on BSE share priceWhile Macquarie remains bullish, Jefferies remains cautious.

The international brokerage has an ‘Underperform’ call on BSE with a target price of Rs 2,940 apiece, implying around 8% downside potential.The international brokerage flagged risks to BSE’s revenue from domestic proprietary traders, who account for around 50% of notional turnover. It sees headwinds from the STT hike, RBI’s bank guarantee norms and the Closing Auction Session (CAS).Also Read | $500 billion flywheel!

Macquarie lists 3 drivers for strong growth in capital market stocks, lists top picksNuvama downgraded the stock’s rating to Hold from Buy last month, and slashed its target price to Rs 3,240 apiece from Rs 4,090 apiece, listing three key headwinds converging in FY27. The newly introduced closing auction session (CAS) has led to huge confusion among traders, resulting in lower participation.

Nuvama highlighted that BSE’s index option premium volumes (ADPTV) of Rs 18,100 crore are the lowest since January 2025.RBI's bank guarantee norms are the second leg, and they arrive precisely as CAS impact could heal, according to Nuvama. Additionally, the brokerage highlighted that BSE’s contract share of nearly 51.5% is already high, but ADPTV's share remains lower at around 36%, due to a lower mix of non-expiry-day contribution.

This is limiting incremental upside from further share gains.Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication.

The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets