Çin-ABD görüşmeleri yatırım kararlarını etkileyecek belirsiz bir uzlaşma sürecine girdi

Kısaca

Çin, bu yıl sözleşilen yıllık 25 milyon ton Amerikan soya alımının yaklaşık yarısını tamamladı İki ülke arasındaki ticari uzlaşma umutları halen belirsiz Görüşmelerin devreye girmesi yatırım kararlarını temkinli tutuyor; dikkat edilecek izlekler izlenecek

Ana mesele

ABD ile Çin arasındaki ticaret ve güvenlik konusunda görünen uzlaşma süreci belirsizlikle sürüyor

Ne değişti?

Görüşmelerin etkisi henüz netleşmedi; yatırım kararları temkinli sürdürülüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya küresel ticaret ve yatırım kararlarında dikkatli olunması gerektiğini gösterir

Ne oldu?

Çin ve ABD arasındaki görüşmeler yeniden odak noktasında; ticaret ve güvenlik meselelerinde uzlaşma arayışı sürüyor

Neden şimdi?

Piyasalar, Çin’in teknolojik ve ticari baskı konumunu dengelemek için bu haftaki toplantıları kullanıyor

Neden önemli?

Gümrük vergileri ve tedarik zinciri güvenliği küresel ekonomi üzerinde belirleyici olabiliyor

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel finans piyasaları
• Çin ve ABD’deki sanayi şirketleri
• Tedarik zinciri bağlı şirketler
• Yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Ticaret ve teknolojide belirsizlik kısa vadeli piyasa volatilitesini artırabilir

Riskler

• Ticaret geriliminin yeniden yükselmesi
• Güçlü bir uzlaşmanın olmaması halinde yatırım kararlarında gecikmeler

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Görüşme sonuç bildirileri
• Tarafların yeni ticaret ve yatırım mekanizmaları
• Savunma ve enerji alanlarındaki ortak projeler
• Çin’in alım hedeflerindeki değişiklikler

Haberin tamamı

Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.

I'm joined again by my Singapore-based colleague Anniek Bao, as we unpack expectations inside and outside China for a closely watched summit in Washington, D.C., later this week. Fanfare aside, what will this meeting achieve?

Many in China sound far more optimistic than those in the U.S. about the bilateral relationship, ahead of a highly anticipated summit this week.

It reflects Beijing's growing confidence, after China was the first major economy to retaliate against the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025. But the list of U.S. concerns has only grown. Staying ahead of China in the artificial intelligence race has become Washington's latest worry.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to the U.S. for his first state visit since the Obama administration , here's what businesses are watching:

The two sides are expected to extend a trade truce expiring in November — although for how long remains in question.

At a meeting last fall in South Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi agreed to suspend rare earth export controls and retaliatory tariff measures for a year.

Then when the two leaders met in May, Beijing agreed to ramp up purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing jets , while both sides planned new trade and investment-related cooperation mechanisms.

The two sides also decided to jointly pursue "constructive strategic stability."

That May summit started "a U-turn in China-U.S. relations," said Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel, China Forum expert and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy.

It was a rare recognition of Beijing as a peer power, he said. "Stability can only be found between countries of similar strength."

So far, China has increased purchases of American soybeans in recent weeks, completing nearly half of the committed annual sum of 25 million tons this year, according to Reuters.

But Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg last week, in an event with Morgan Stanley , downplayed expectations that Beijing would follow through on the 200-jetliner order commitment in a single blockbuster deal, expecting incremental orders by individual carriers instead.

"The best the U.S. can hope for is probably just maintaining the status quo," Chad Brown, senior fellow at the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, told reporters on Monday. "That's really because of the leverage China holds at the moment over rare earths, permanent magnets."

"Until that problem is solved, China is really going to continue to have that kind of leverage and push back on any major demands that a U.S. administration might have," he said.

Beijing on Monday confirmed that Xi will visit the U.S. from Wednesday to Friday. The trip is expected to mirror Trump's one-and-a-half-day visit to Beijing in May .

Chinese AI labs have narrowed the gap with their U.S. rivals this year, while American companies have sounded the alarm about the risks of developing the technology faster than it can be controlled.

However, it's unclear what cooperation on the tech would look like. Zhou said general dialogue similar to prior AI talks in Geneva was possible.

Over the weekend, in New York , senior negotiators from both countries discussed setting up a "U.S.-China AI Dialogue," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He noted the U.S. proposed the establishment of a notification system for AI incidents.

His counterpart Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is in the U.S. for talks through Wednesday in preparation for the summit.

U.S. worries about AI have accelerated since early last week and it will be a part of the discussions between Trump and Xi, according to someone familiar with the thinking in recent days in Washington. The source requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the trade talks.

A key aspect will likely cover how to get China not to empower nefarious actors with its AI, the source said, affirming that efforts to get China to buy Nvidia H200 chips were not a significant part of discussions.

Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Google's Sundar Pichai, Michael Dell, Nvidia's Jensen Huang, OpenAI's Sam Altman, Citigroup's Jane Fraser and Apple's Tim Cook are among the U.S. business executives set to attend Trump's state dinner for Xi, according to senior U.S. officials.

But as of Friday, the source said the U.S. has not received any visa applications for Chinese business attendees.

There's also been little detail on the "Board of Investment" despite its formal proposal in May.

Chinese and U.S. businesses both need assurances that the geopolitical environment will remain stable enough for them to see returns on investments in each others' countries, said Orville Schell, Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations and Vice President at the Asia Society.

Any discussion over Taiwan is expected to take a back seat to Iran when Xi and Trump meet in Washington.

Beijing has taken pains not to directly intervene in the U.S.-Iran war, and instead act as a facilitator for ceasefire talks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met China's top diplomat Wang Yi in Beijing last week, as Tehran sought to shore up support from its top oil buyer. On the U.S. side, Trump told Fox News he is "open" to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

"Given how difficult and urgent this issue has become and how disruptive the war has been to the global economy and energy markets, I would think Iran would feature significantly in the conversation," said Daniel Kritenbrink, a partner at The Asia Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

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Kaynaklar

• CNBC - World