Çin ana karası ve Hong Kong hisseleri için zorlu 4. çeyrek: analistlere göre riskler artıyor

Kısaca

Çin ana karası ve Hong Kong hisseleri, zayıf teşvikler ve ABD'deki sıkı finans koşullarıyla çeyreğe giriyor; Hang Seng 22.500-26.000 aralığında kalabilir. CSI 300 üçüncü Çeyrek'te %13 düştü; Hang Seng %7,2 yükseldi; S&P 500 ise %2,3 arttı; Fed olası 0,25 puanlık faiz artışını fiyatladı. Piyasa boğaları AI haber akışındaki değişime rağmen belirsizliği azaltmak için yeni yön arayışında.

Ana mesele

Çin ana karası ve Hong Kong hisseleri, zayıf teşvikler ve ABD'deki sıkı finans şartlarıyla zorlu bir çeyreğe giriyor.

Ne değişti?

Ana meseleyle farklı olarak, küresel getirilerde oynaklık ve yapay zekâ haber akışının yön değiştirmesi öne çıkıyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için Çin ve bölge hisse senetlerinin volatilitesini izlemek ve risklere karşı portföy siperlerini güçlendirmek gerekir.

Ne oldu?

Çin ve Hong Kong piyasaları, teşvik eksikliği ve ABD finans koşullarının sıkılaşmasıyla ivmesini kaybetti.

Neden şimdi?

Güncel politika adımları beklenirken global likidite sıkışması yatırımcıları temkinli kıldı.

Neden önemli?

Jenerik büyüme görünümü ve faiz politikaları, bölge hisselerinin yönünü doğrudan etkiliyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Küresel portföy yöneticileri
• Çin ve Hong Kong şirketleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finans ve teknoloji ağırlıklı hisse senetleri baskı altında kalabilir; savunma tarafları güçlenebilir.

Riskler

• Çin büyüme hedeflerinin altında kalması
• ABD'deki faiz artış ihtimali
• Jeopolitik riskler

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD enflasyon ve faiz kararları
• Beijing'in yeni teşvik adımları
• Hang Seng ve CSI 300 hareketleri
• AI haber akışındaki yön değişimi

Haberin tamamı

Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks may face a challenging fourth quarter as investors contend with underwhelming stimulus measures from Beijing, tighter financial conditions in the US and a shift in the narrative around the artificial intelligence trade, according to analysts.

The two markets were likely to consolidate throughout the rest of the year to digest the negatives before settling on a clearer direction, according to brokerages including Zheshang Securities and CCB International.

CCB International, the investment banking unit of China Construction Bank, predicted that the Hang Seng Index would trade in a narrow range between 22,500 and 26,000 over the next three months, with risks skewed to the downside. The benchmark was little changed at 24,522.90 early on Wednesday.

Sentiment on stocks has been deteriorating heading into the fourth quarter. Rates traders are now pricing a 47 per cent probability of a quarter-point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in October, leaving US Treasury yields at multi-year highs.

At the same time, China’s growth risks undershooting the lower end of its annual target. Economists said Beijing’s latest support measures, including mortgage subsidies for homebuyers and an expansion of a relending facility, were unlikely to bolster domestic demand.

The markets are still finding where the bottom is

Liao Jingchi, Zheshang Securities

“The markets have entered a period of consolidation amid uncertainty of expectations about global rate increases, geopolitics and the shift in the AI narrative,” said Liao Jingchi, an analyst at Zheshang Securities. “They are still finding where the bottom is.”

China’s CSI 300 Index fell 13 per cent in the third quarter, weighed down by the biggest-ever monthly decline in technology stocks in July in a global meltdown. The Hang Seng Index held up with a gain of 7.2 per cent, thanks to its limited exposure to AI plays. By comparison, the S&P 500 rose 2.3 per cent during the period, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 5.3 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 19 per cent.

On top of monetary tightening and inflation pressures, fiscal strains in the US and Japan, along with simmering trade tensions between China and the European Union, could also pose risks to equities in the fourth quarter, according to Cliff Zhao, strategist at CCB International.

There are optimists. China Asset Management, which oversees 1.36 trillion yuan (US$202.8 billion) in assets, said the pullback in the third quarter had created room for an upside in stocks, with technology and commodity companies likely to post strong results in the coming season for earnings.

The firm said the CSI 300’s decline to a one-year low this week was largely a result of investors hedging risks before the National Day “golden week” holiday starting on Thursday. Low trading volumes indicated selling pressure was easing and that there could be limited scope for further declines, it added.

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index returned to expansion territory in September, rising to 50.1 from 49.8 a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that level signals contraction.

Beijing’s move on Tuesday to offer mortgage subsidies and lower the interest rate on pledged supplementary lending – a low-cost financing tool used by policy banks to fund investment projects – failed to impress investors.

These measures would have a limited impact on the economy because the subsidy programme was mainly applicable to buyers of low-priced homes in non-top-tier cities, where many residents still expected property prices to fall further, according to Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings.

“We continue to view China as a stock pickers’ market, and maintain our barbell strategy, favouring value and yield, as well as sectors with strong earnings support and moats,” said Winne Wu, an analyst at Bank of America. The barbell strategy refers to an approach to split investments between growth stocks and defensive sectors.

Kaynaklar

• South China Morning Post - Business