Çin’de Ofis ve Perakende Piyasasında Toparlanma Sinyalleri | Arz Fazlası Endişesi Sürüyor

Kısaca

Küresel emlak yatırımcıları Çin’de toparlanma görüyor, fakat arz fazlası endişesi sürüyor; JLL kaynağıyla Şanghay ve Pekin başta olmak üzere büyük kentlerde ofis ve otel işlemleri hızlandı Çin’de arz- talep dengesi netleşince en iyi ofis varlıkları önce toparlanabilir; yeni borsa teminatları satın alımı destekliyor

Ana mesele

Uluslararası yatırımcılar Çin’de ofis ve perakende piyasasında toparlanma görüyor, arz fazlası endişesi sürüyor

Ne değişti?

Talep ile arz arasındaki denge netleşince yatırımlar hız kazanabilir

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular, küresel yatırım eğilimleri ve Çin odaklı portföy kararları hakkında fikir edinir

Ne oldu?

Uluslararası yatırımcılar Çin’de ofis ve perakende piyasasında toparlanma sinyalleri görüyor

Neden şimdi?

Piyasa esteklerinde arz fazlası endişesi azalıyor ve talep toparlanmaya başlıyor

Neden önemli?

Türkiye kökenli yatırımcılar için küresel risk iştahı ve varlık dağılımı etkilenebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel yatırım fonları
• Kurum yatırımcıları
• Yerel Çin işletmeleri
• Sigorta şirketleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Ofis ve perakende segmentlerinde değerlemeler ve işlemler toparlanabilir

Riskler

• Arz fazlasının sürmesi
• Talepte beklenen hızın gelmemesi
• Makroekonomik belirsizlikler

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Arz ve talep arasındaki denge nasıl ilerliyor
• Yeni arzın absorbe edilmesiyle fiyat hareketleri nasıl şekilleniyor
• Yüksek net değerli bireyler ve kurumsal yatırımcı akışları
• Piyasa dışı finansman kaynağı aktarımları

Haberin tamamı

International investors who have seen early signs of recovery in mainland China’s office and retail property markets are expected to start buying when oversupply concerns are eased, according to global real estate firm JLL.

Stuart Crow, JLL’s CEO for capital markets in the Asia-Pacific region, said foreign institutions would fall back in love with mainland property assets when new supply was absorbed by fresh take-up.

“International investors are waiting for the real economy to really absorb those commercial property spaces,” he said. “Probably we need to be a little bit more patient for the China value recovery.”

Crow added that a balance between fresh supply of space and take-up was emerging in the world’s second-biggest economy, with oversupply concerns eased, but big institutions like real estate funds and insurers would not return unless commercial properties could generate sufficient income.

Commercial property transactions shot up in major mainland cities including Shanghai and Beijing in the first half of this year as local buyers, including corporate investors and high-net-worth individuals, snapped up office buildings and hotels in prime locations on expectations that property prices would soon bottom out after a years-long downturn.

In Shanghai, prices of office buildings had plunged 30 to 40 per cent from their peaks amid a national property crisis that started in 2021, prompting local investors to hunt for bargains, brokers said.

Even though there may be an oversupply in the broader market, the best of the best office assets will recover first

The recent launch of the mainland’s first exchange-traded real estate investment trusts backed by commercial properties – a new financing source for property owners – had also helped spur buying, they added.

Crow said the Chinese commercial property market had seen a ray of hope as global investors increased their asset allocations in the Asia-Pacific region to profit from its economic growth and liquidity.

“Even though there may be an oversupply in the broader market, the best of the best office assets will recover first, and their rate of growth will be quicker,” he said.

A report released by JLL last month that evaluated top office properties in Shanghai said some “elevated premium grade A” office buildings had exceptional resilience and were outperforming the market.

“The elevated premium grade A offices have demonstrated consistent advantages in rental premiums and vacancy rates compared with regular grade A offices,” said Daniel Yao, head of research for JLL China. “Entering 2026, their office rents have stabilised and started to bottom out, driving the overall office market recovery.”

The average rent for such offices stood at 8.5 yuan (US$1.27) per square metre per day in the second quarter of the year, with nearly 70 per cent recording positive or flat rental growth in the first half of the year, JLL data showed.

The average rent for a regular grade A office in Shanghai was 6 yuan per square metre per day.

Kaynaklar

• South China Morning Post - Business