D-Street haftalık düşüşlerde 25 yılın en uzun serisini kaydetti; küresel bono dalgası etkili

Kısaca

Sensex 570,59 puan düşüşle 71.909,70’e indi; Nifty 50 199 puan düşerek 22.422’ye kapandı ABD 10 yıllık getirisi 5,3% ile 2002’den bu yana en yüksek seviyeyi görmüş durumda Küresel büyüme ve enerji maliyetlerindeki belirsizlikler etkisini sürdürüyor

Ana mesele

Hisse senetlerinde en uzun haftalık kayıp serisi teyit edildi

Ne değişti?

Küresel bono rallisi ve ABD getiri hareketleri eşliğinde düşüşlerin derinleştiği görüldü

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar risk iştahını düşüren gelişmeleri dikkate almalı; güvenli liman talepleri ve döviz baskıları artabilir

Ne oldu?

Endeksler haftayı düşüşlerle kapattı; Sensex 570,59 puan kaybetti ve 71.909,70’e geriledi; Nifty 50 199 puan düşüşle 22.422’ye indi

Neden şimdi?

Küresel bono rallisi, petrol fiyatları ve yabancı satış baskısı nedeniyle güven zayıfladı

Neden önemli?

Gelecek dönemde riskten kaçınma ve kur hareketleri piyasa dalgalanmalarını artırabilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Yabancı portföy yatırımcıları
• Kurum içi yatırım direktörleri
• Yerel yatırım kurumları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasalar genel olarak baskı altında kaldı; Hindistan borsası ve türev piyasaları volatil

Riskler

• Döviz volatilitesi
• Yabancı satış baskısının sürmesi
• Enerji ve emtia fiyatlarındaki belirsizlik

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Küresel getirilerin seyri
• ABD ve diğer büyük ekonomilerde Merkez Bankası adımları
• Döviz piyasasındaki hareketler
• Enerji maliyetlerinde yön

Haberin tamamı

Indian equity benchmarks Thursday logged their longest run of weekly losses in a quarter century as an unprecedented surge in US 10-year bond yields, the key reference frame for global asset pricing, roiled currencies across the Asia Pacific and prompted investors to seek the safety of dollar-based instruments.The Sensex declined 570.59 points, or 0.79%, to close at 71,909.70, while the Nifty 50 dropped 199 points, or 0.9%, to settle at 22,422.The current selloff surpassed the seven-week decline witnessed during the initial days of Covid-induced shutdowns six years ago, although the magnitude of the recent decline - around 9% over the past 8 weeks - pales before the 25%-plus routs on two previous occasions the gauges slipped for at least this duration.

Indian equities are likely to stay under pressure in the near term as a record global bond rout, renewed strength in crude and the heaviest foreign selling in six months weigh on sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka - head of research, wealth management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The US 10-year Treasury yield has broken past its 2007 peak to 5.3%, the highest since April 2002, with the 30-year at 5.6%.

134631019Challenges Ahead Indian financial markets are shut Friday.The broader market also remained under pressure, with the Nifty Midcap index falling 1.1% and the Smallcap index losing nearly 1%.

The rupee lost half a percentage point and was the worst performer in the continent, with the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and the Japanese yen each losing between 0.35% and 0.45%.Foreign investors continued to dump Indian equities, said Sunny Agrawal, deputy vice president-fundamental research at SBI Securities.

Investors are also perturbed by elevated crude oil prices and the resultant decline in the rupee against the dollar, said Ankur Punj, managing director, Equirus Wealth.'Capital Flight'In September, overseas funds net sold stock worth ₹44,013 crore. In August, they sold worth ₹7,532 crore.

In March, during the peak of the Iran crisis, they sold stock worth ₹1.2 lakh crore.Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of equities worth ₹9,484.22 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors were net buyers to the tune of ₹10,041.84 crore.Analysts are of the view that elevated crude prices, bond yields and global liquidity remain key risks.

However, continued weakness could increasingly create selective stock-specific opportunities as positioning and valuations reset.The macro environment remains challenging, with Brent crude hovering near US$100/bbl and the US 10-year Treasury yield staying around 5.3%, Agarwal said.The biggest drags on the Nifty included Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports, while HDFC Life, SBI Life Insurance, HDFC Bank, Infosys and TCS emerged among the key gainers.At the sectoral level, the IT index advanced 2%, while telecom rose 0.5%.

Auto, Media, FMCG, Infra, Metal, Consumer Durables and Realty indices declined 2-3%. Energy, Pharma, PSU Bank and Oil & Gas indices fell more than 1% each.On the technical front, the short-term market outlook remains weak, though conditions are oversold. A pullback rally from current levels cannot be ruled out, said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.On the downside, 22,200/71,300 is a key support zone, while 22,500/72,200 is immediate resistance.

A move above 22,500/72,200 could extend the pullback to 22,700-22,800/73,000-73,200. Conversely, a break below 22,200/71,300 could intensify selling pressure and take the market down to 22,000-21,950/71,000-70,700, he said. For Bank Nifty, 54,000 is a crucial support zone. If the index holds above this level, it could rebound to 55,000-55,500. However, a break below 54,000 could increase selling pressure and raise the possibility of a decline to 53,500-53,200, he added.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets