Dolar baskınlığına karşı küresel para sisteminde çok kutuplu yaklaşım güçleniyor

Kısaca

Dolar düşürücü baskılar artarken 10 yıllık hazine getirisi 5,23'e çıktı. Kamu borcunun yaklaşık 40 trilyon dolar olduğu ve yıllık faiz giderlerinin 1 trilyon doların üzerinde olduğu belirtiliyor. Carney'nin yorumu dünya çapında çok kutuplu bir rezerv para sistemi gereğini savunuyor ve ödeme sistemlerinin ABD dışı kanallarla güçlendirilmesini öneriyor.

Ana mesele

Dolar baskınlığı azaltılmaya çalışılırken küresel para sistemi çok kutuplu bir yapıya doğru kayıyor

Ne değişti?

Doların baskısını kırma yönündeki adımlar, çok kutuplu sistemi savunan söylemlerle destekleniyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için küresel finansal değişimlere ilişkin farkındalık artıyor

Ne oldu?

Doların küresel rezerv para konumunu koruduğu, ancak de-dollarization eğiliminin güçlendiği belirtiliyor.

Neden şimdi?

ABD’nin mali sorunları ve dolar bazlı finansal sistemi baskı altında tutan politikalar gündemdeki yerini koruyor.

Neden önemli?

Borç seviyesi ve borç maliyetleri yüksek olan bir ekonomide, dolar bağımlılığı azaltma çabaları finansal güvenlik ve politika manevrası üzerinde belirleyici olabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kamu maliyeti yönetimi
• Küresel ticari partnerler
• Kamu borç yükü taşıyan ülkeler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finansal piyasalarda getiriler ve borçlanma maliyetleri üzerinde dalgalanma olası; ödeme sistemleri ve uluslararası ticarette değişen dinamikler etkili olabilir.

Riskler

• Dolar etkisinin hızla azalması halinde rezerv para dağılımında belirsizlikler artabilir
• Küresel finansal istikrar için yeni mekanizmaların uyum süreci gerekecek
• Çoğu ülkenin finansal düzenlemeleri yeniden şekillenebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD borçlanma maliyetlerindeki hareket
• Küresel rezerv para dağılımındaki tartışmalar ve yaptırımlar
• Kamu finansmanı giderlerindeki baskı ve savunma harcamaları
• Uluslararası ödeme sistemlerinde yeni iş birlikleri ve dijital çözümler

Haberin tamamı

The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, but countries around the globe are looking for ways to reduce their exposure to it.

According to Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey, this gradual de-dollarization trend is being fueled not only by America’s fiscal problems, but also by Washington’s increasing willingness to use the dollar-based financial system as a weapon.The warning signs are already visible in the bond market.Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.23 percent, its highest level since 2007.

Rising yields reflect falling bond prices and signal that investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to lend money to the U.S. government.That is a serious problem for a country carrying roughly $40 trillion in debt, particularly when there is little political appetite for cutting borrowing or spending. The federal government is already paying more than $1 trillion annually in interest expense. Interest costs now exceed spending on national defense and Medicare.

Only Social Security costs more.The Treasury Department has even been buying back long-term bonds in an effort to support the market and push yields lower. But the effort has not meaningfully reversed the underlying pressure.A close ally questions Dollar dominanceCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently gave the world another reason to take the de-dollarization trend seriously.Canada has traditionally been one of America’s closest allies and trading partners.

Yet Carney has openly argued that the world should seek alternatives to the dollar, or at least reduce the dollar’s role as the dominant reserve currency.In a speech before the European Parliament, Carney warned that “financial mechanisms are being used for coercive purposes.” He suggested that Canada and Europe should work more closely to develop payment systems that bypass those controlled by the United States.In a New York Times interview, Carney went further.

He said the world should move toward a “multi-polar system” using several reserve currencies rather than relying so heavily on the dollar.This does not mean the dollar is about to vanish from international commerce. The dollar remains deeply embedded in global trade and finance, supported by the size, sophistication, liquidity, and depth of U.S. financial markets.

As Maharrey put it, the dollar is still the “cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.”But the fact that the leader of the world’s 11th-largest economy is publicly discussing ways to minimize dollar dependence matters.

It matters even more because Carney’s comments reflect a growing global consensus.The debt black holeOne force behind the so-called debasement trade is America’s enormous debt burden.The debasement trade refers to a strategy of holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.

Investors and governments are looking at escalating debt, persistent deficits, and monetary expansion and concluding that holding paper currencies carries greater risk.Maharrey described the national debt using a phrase coined by analyst Greg Weldon, a “debt black hole.”Like an astrophysical black hole, the debt burden warps everything around it. It affects monetary policy, fiscal policy, bond markets, government spending, and the broader economy.

The higher the debt climbs, the harder it becomes for policymakers to tolerate higher interest rates because every increase in yields makes borrowing more expensive.The Globe and Mail recently observed that dollar preeminence rests in part on the perception that U.S. Treasuries remain the world’s safest asset.

But that assumption is increasingly being questioned as federal debt surpasses $40 trillion and the United States continues to run massive budget deficits.The world has long needed dollars and dollar-denominated assets. That demand has allowed the U.S. government to borrow and spend far more than would otherwise be possible.

Global demand for dollars helps absorb Federal Reserve money creation and supports the dollar despite years of inflationary policy.If foreign demand for dollars and Treasuries weakens, the United States faces a painful adjustment.

Less demand means higher borrowing costs, greater downward pressure on the dollar, and more inflationary consequences at home.Sanctions create an incentive to escape the Dollar systemThe second major driver of de-dollarization is the weaponization of the dollar.The United States can impose powerful financial pressure because so much global commerce is conducted through dollar-based networks. Washington can freeze assets under U.S.

jurisdiction, restrict dealings with American companies, limit foreign banks’ access to U.S. accounts, and use secondary sanctions to punish firms that do business with sanctioned governments or entities.This power became especially visible after Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. and its Western allies aggressively sanctioned Moscow.

Russia was effectively locked out of major parts of the global financial system.More recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly threatened to target Iranian commercial airlines as part of broader pressure on Iran. He warned that companies or countries supporting those airlines could be “knocked out of the dollar system.”The message was blunt.

Businesses that provide fuel, landing services, or tickets to Iranian airlines could risk losing access to the financial infrastructure that supports international trade.The U.S. can also work with allies to cut sanctioned entities off from SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. SWIFT serves as a global financial messaging network facilitating cross-border payments.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet