Doların Eylül'deki yükselişi, euro karşısında baskın güç kazanıyor

Kısaca

Dolar, euro karşısında Eylül'de güç kazanması bekleniyor; dolar/eur oranı yükseliş potansiyeli gösterebilir. Enerji ve borç endişeleri Euro için baskıyı sürdürürken, ABD büyümesi desteği artırıyor. Piyasalarda dikkat edilecek nokta: ABD verileri başarıyla gelirse, dolar güçlenmesi devam edebilir; takip edilmesi gereken kilit veriler var.

Ana mesele

Dolar, Eylül ayında euro karşısında güç kazanacak yolunda hareket ediyor.

Ne değişti?

ABD büyümesi ve faiz artışları nedeniyle doların euro karşısında baskısını artırması olasıdır.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Kur hareketlenmeleri yatırım kararlarını ve maliyetleri etkileyebilir.

Ne oldu?

Kayıtlar, doların eura karşı güç kazanacağını işaret ediyor; Eylül ayı için en büyük aylık yükseliş ihtimali bulunuyor.

Neden şimdi?

ABD büyümesinin güçlenmesi ve iç faiz artışları farkı, dolar talebini destekliyor; euro ise enerji ve borç konularıyla baskı altında.

Neden önemli?

Döviz kırılımı ithalat/rekabet gücünü etkiler; şirketler için maliyet ve fiyatlandırma kararlarını etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Uluslararası şirketler
• Yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasasında volatilite artabilir; ihracat/ithalat maliyetleri değişebilir.

Riskler

• Faiz verileri beklentilerin altında kalırsa dolar zayıflayabilir
• Enerji piyasasındaki gelişmeler euro üzerinde baskıyı sürdürebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ABD işsizlik verileri
• Enflasyon verileri
• Euro bölgesi enerji maliyetleri

Haberin tamamı

The dollar stood near this year's high versus the euro on Wednesday and was poised for the largest monthly rise against it for 14 months, powered by US growth and rising US interest rates in contrast to the energy and debt worries swirling in Europe.Overnight, the euro dipped to its lowest since May 2025, at $1.1312, and traded nearby at $1.1339 in Asia.

The euro is also testing support around 178 yen.Through September the dollar is up nearly 2.5% on the euro, and the rising greenback also pushed its Australian counterpart below 70 cents for the first time since early August.

The US economy is running hot, Europe is losing the global AI race, and energy supplies and French politics remain big concerns for the euro, said Brent Donnelly, president of foreign exchange trading at analytics firm Spectra Markets.Earlier this month benchmark European gas prices spiked to their highest since 2022.French markets are under pressure from debt and political gridlock, ahead of next year's presidential election, and the spread with German yields has blown beyond 115 basis points to its widest since 2012.The skew in options prices has tipped sharply in recent sessions to favour buying protection against further euro falls - though Donnelly says the dollar probably needs strong US data to make further headway from here.The dollar also made a 16-1/2-month top on the Swiss franc overnight at 0.8358 francs.

The franc has suffered, in part, because investors have gone looking for low-yielding alternatives to yen to sell in search of carry elsewhere.The yen has fallen out of favour as a short against the dollar following US-Japan yen buying in July and August, which has been followed by warnings not to test their resolve, as well as a pickup in the pace of Japanese rate hikes.The dollar has fallen 1.5% on the yen in September.Data To LeadThe Fed's preferred inflation yardstick, US core PCE, is due out later on Wednesday though the market is focused on Friday's US jobs report which, if strong, could reinforce expectations that US interest rates are on the rise.Some of those expectations took a hit overnight when influential New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need for urgency in raising rates.

Two-year Treasury yields fell about 3.5 basis points and Fed funds futures pricing for a rate hike next month dialled back to 50% from 71%.Australian inflation figures due later on Wednesday could lend support to the Aussie, which slipped after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said the board discussed holding rates before announcing Tuesday's 25-bp hike. The risk is another hike by the RBA, possibly as soon as the next policy meeting in November.

However, another hike is already priced in by markets, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia's head of foreign exchange, Joe Capurso. We still consider the next big move in AUD/USD is down not up, he said. The Australian dollar hovered around $0.6986 early in the Asia session, 20 pips above its overnight low, and the New Zealand dollar, which hit its lowest since last November overnight, was pinned at $0.5638. [AUD/]Sterling touched a three-month trough on Tuesday and last sat nearby at $1.3227.

The yuan headed for its seventh straight quarterly gain on the dollar in its final session before China's October 1-7 holidays. [CNY/]

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets