Doların Gücü Yükseliyor: Faiz Artış Beklentileri ve Küresel Piyasalarda Nasıl Etkileniyor

Kısaca

ABD faiz artışına dair beklentiler güçlenirken dolar endeksi güç kazandı; 5,1% büyüme hedefiyle çeyrek için öngörüler yükseliyor Gelişmiş piyasalardaki merkez bankaları politika adımlarını destekliyor ve piyasalarda fiyatlamalar değişiyor Gözler Türkiye’de finansman maliyetleri ve döviz akımları üzerinde; izlemede kalın; nötrden negatif baskı oluşabilir

Ana mesele

ABD faiz artış beklentileri güçleniyor, dolar endeksi destekleniyor

Ne değişti?

Kısa vadede Fed tutumuna ilişkin daha agresif sıkılaşma beklentileri dile getiriliyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalar volatiliteyi artırabilir; Türk Lirası ve benzeri para birimlerinde dalgalanma riski bulunuyor

Ne oldu?

ABD faiz artış beklentileri ve dolar kuvvetlenmesi piyasalarda baskın temas oldu

Neden şimdi?

Fed’in yakın dönemde daha sıkı bir duruş sergileyeceğine dair göstergeler güçlendi

Neden önemli?

Dolar güçlendiğine göre küresel likidite ve maliyetler etkilenebilir; Türkiye gibi ülkeleri etkileyebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Döviz ticareti yapan yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankaları ve politika yapıcılar
• Yurtiçi firmalar ve borçlanma maliyetleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Küresel döviz piyasaları, kısa vadeli tahvil hacimleri ve maliyetler etkilenebilir

Riskler

• Döviz kuru oynaklığı artabilir
• Kredi maliyetleri yükselebilir
• Piyasa beklentileri hızla değişebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed iletişim stratejileri ve olası faiz artış adımları
• Gelişmiş merkez bankalarının politika duruşları
• Türkiye’de para politikası ve finansman maliyetlerindeki gelişmeler
• Döviz akışları ve sarf planları

Haberin tamamı

The surge in US rates continues to underpin the greenback. The market anticipates a more aggressive tightening cycle than the Federal Reserve’s recent Summary of Economic Projections suggested. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to 5.1% growth this quarter, which would surely surpass China’s. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month tariff truce extension with China, which is a little shorter than had been floated.

Hopes of a settlement in the Middle East were dashed by Iranian comments threatening new escalation if the US or Israel strike again. Speculation that the US will impose a ban on diesel exports continues to unsettle the market. Three G10 central banks met today. Norway’s Norges Bank increased the deposit rate by 25 bp to 4.5% and kept the door open to additional moves. The swaps market is pricing in another hike late this year or early next year.

Sweden’s Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75% but indicated a hike this year was likely. The swaps market has around a 90% chance discounted for the next meeting in early November. The Swiss National Bank maintained its zero-policy rate, dropped the language in its statement that threatened “increased willingness” to intervene to sell the franc, and tweaked up its inflation forecasts.

Prices G10US rates jumped after the stronger than expected preliminary September PMI and that succeeded in pushing the euro to $1.1370, a new low since July 28. The losses were extended to almost $1.1360 in Europe. It consolidates below $1.14, where options for 1.2 bln euros expires today. Indeed, the last session that the euro did not trade above $1.14 was on June 25, the day after it recorded the low for the year (~$1.1325). The July low was set slightly below $1.1355.

Japanese markets opened for the first time this week and were greeted with the strongest dollar against the yen since September 3. The greenback reached JPY158.80, slightly above the 200-day moving average (~JPY158.45) in Europe today after mostly consolidated in the Asia Pacific session. Sterling was driven through the late July low (~$1.3275) and dropped to $1.3225 in the NY afternoon.

It recorded a marginal new low today (~$1.3215) and still does not appear to have exhausted the selling pressure. Sterling settled well below the lower Bollinger Band (found near $1.3255 today) and has been capped there today. The next notable chart area is around $1.3200, where options for almost GBP660 mln of options expire today, though the low for the year was recorded on June 24, around $1.3140. The Canadian dollar fell by about 0.25% yesterday.

It was the 10th decline in the past 11 sessions. The greenback traded above CAD1.4100 for the first time since late July. For the fifth time in the past six sessions, the US dollar settled above the upper Bollinger Band (found ~CAD1.4120 today). Options for almost $1.7 bln at CAD1.4100 expire today. The US dollar has held above CAD1.4095 today. The next chart is around CAD1.4125-30. The Australian dollar fell by more than 1%, the most among the G10 currencies yesterday.

Despite the disappointing flash PMI, the futures market marginally increased the likelihood of an RBA hike next week. It was sold through the $0.7040-50 area, which held various technical retracement targets. The Australian dollar settled well below the lower Bollinger Band (~$0.7040 today). Follow-through selling today scratched the 200-day moving average, which the Aussie had not traded below this year (~$0.7022 today).

The $0.7000 area holds the (61.8%) retracement of the rally the late June low (~$0.6865) and options for about A$440 mln struck there, roll off today. EMThe Mexican peso lurched lower yesterday. It dropped about 1.15%, the largest single day drop since January. The greenback reached MXN17.6055 and took out the highs from the second half of July. The US dollar settled above the upper Bollinger Band (~MXN17.49 today). The highs from late June/early July were around MXN17.6450-MXN17.6765.

For the part of the past two weeks, the dollar has mostly been rangebound against the Brazilian real (~BRL5.10-BRL5.18). It approached the upper end of the range yesterday and the 200-day moving average (~BRL5.1760). Maybe the proximity of the tight presidential election is dampening the movement. Still, near-term risk may extend to the BRL5.20-BRL5.22 area. On the other hand, the greenback has jumped to its highest level against the Colombian peso since July 23.

The dollar reached almost COP3309 yesterday. The next important chart area is around COP3325-COP3330. The dollar moved above its 20-day moving average (~CNH6.7110) against the offshore yuan yesterday for the first time since July 9. The greenback briefly traded above CNH6.7140, stalling slightly in front of last week’s high (~CNH6.7160). Follow-through buying today, lifted the dollar to CNH6.72. The month’s high is about CNH6.7265.

The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate higher for the second consecutive session (CNY6.7489 vs. CNY6.7468 yesterday). The dollar gapped higher against the Indian rupee today, and despite reports of onshore intervention, the dollar settled near its highs. It reached INR95.9660, its best level in five sessions. Higher oil prices and the greenback’s broad gains weighed on the rupee. This month’s high is near INR96.0965.

Other marketsYesterday’s decline in US equity indices lent a sour tone to today’s activity. The Nikkei 225 gained, but the other Japanese equity indices fell as the markets re-opened. Outside the South Korea and New Zealand, most of the bourses in the region fell. India and China fell by more than 1.5%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off a little less than 0.5%, the same as yesterday. US index futures are heavy and underscore the risk of gap lower openings.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet