Dünya altın üreticileri kendi üretimlerini stoklayarak arzı güçlendirme peşinde

Kısaca

Dünya altın üreticileri kendi üretimlerini stoklayarak arzı güçlendirmeye yöneliyor; örnek Laos'ta 12 ton üretim 2025 yılı için kaydedildi ve Lao Bullion Bank kuruldu. Arka planda ABD dolarının rezerv para olarak gücü tartışılırken, bazı ülkeler yerel rafinaj ve ihracat vergileriyle üretimi artırıyor. Bu gelişme altın talebini değiştirebilir, yatırımcılar için yeni stratejik kriterler doğurabilir ve izlenecek politikalar önem kazanabilir.

Ana mesele

Dünya altın üreticileri kendi üretimlerini stoklayarak arzı güçlendirme peşinde

Ne değişti?

Birçok ülke yerel rafinaj ve ihracat vergileriyle merkez bankalarının yerli üretimi tercih etmesini sağlıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya, altın talep dinamikleri ve yatırım stratejileri üzerinde yeni bir karar verici baskı getirebilir

Ne oldu?

Altın üreticileri kendi üretimlerini stoklayıp yerel rafinaj kapasitesini artırmaya yöneliyor; Laos örneği öne çıktı.

Neden şimdi?

ABD dolarının rezerv para olarak konumu ve yaptırımlar/sermaye akışları nedeniyle ülkeler yerel üretim ve rezerv yönetimini güçlendiriyor.

Neden önemli?

Küresel altın arzı dinamikleri değiştiğinde fiyatlar ve merkez bankaları politikaları etkilenir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Merkez bankaları
• Altın madenciliği şirketleri
• Ticaret ve finans piyasaları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Altın fiyatları ve rafine ürünlerin ticareti üzerinde baskı/yeniden dağılım

Riskler

• Küresel talep dalgalanmaları
• Jeopolitik risklerin etkisi
• Rafineri kapasitesinin zamanında tamamlanmaması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Yerel rafinaj projelerinin tamamlanma takvimi
• Merkez bankalarının varlık yönetimi kararları
• İhracat vergilerinde değişiklikler
• Fiyat hareketlerinde uzun vadeli eğilimler

Haberin tamamı

For most of modern history, the gold trade worked one way emerging-market mines dug it up, shipped it out often as cheap ore, more often through the back door, and London and New York did the rest. But that arrangement is now quietly breaking down. According to a must-read report in Nikkei Asia, countries across Asia are moving to capture more of the value from the gold boom by refining domestically, taxing exports and having their central banks buy local production.

Nikkei calls it "a new form of resource nationalism", and one that "could exert upward pressure on gold prices over the medium to long term." The two reasons it gives will be very familiar to regular readers waning confidence in the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and the fact that dollar assets of countries at odds with Washington have been frozen under sanctions.

In other words, the world's gold producers have noticed the same thing the world's central banks noticed in 2022 gold is the one reserve asset nobody else can freeze, and they are sitting on top of it. Below we walk through who is hoarding gold and how, why Goldman thinks central-bank and now producer-country demand is doing "nearly all" the work in its $5,400 gold forecast, and why - for now - none of that has been enough to beat a hiking Fed.

From Vientiane To Jakarta Everyone Wants A Refinery Now Start with Laos, which produced roughly 12 tons of mined gold in 2025 the sixth-largest output in Asia, per the World Gold Council and Metals Focus and estimates its reserves at 500-1,000 tons.

Until now, most of that left the country as ore, "through both official and unofficial channels." In 2024 the government set up the Lao Bullion Bank, which aims to refine local gold at home, raise gold's share of the country's FX reserves, and give citizens a trusted place to store their savings.

Laotian PM Sonexay Siphandone now calls gold development "a key priority in strengthening our economic foundation." The head of the Japan Bullion Market Association, who attended the launch event, described the speed of the build-out as "astonishing." Indonesia, the world's 10th-largest producer at more than 100 tons a year, is going further it announced last year an export tax of up to 15% on gold, effective 2026, because domestic supply can't keep up with local investment demand.

Regular readers will recall that we flagged Jakarta's levy Nov 17, 2025 when it was still in its "final stage," complete with a sliding scale that rises with the gold price. At roughly $4,150/oz, a 15% duty works out to about $620 an ounce, which is a very polite way of saying "please don't export this." And then there is China, the world's largest producer at a little over 380 tons a year about a tenth of global output, which is also a major importer.

As market analyst Jeff Toshima told Nikkei, "As a rule, taking gold out of the country is restricted." More on Beijing below. The trend isn't limited to Asia.

Madagascar's central bank has been buying domestically produced gold since the early 2020s under a Gold Purchase Program that its gold operations supervisor calls "the cornerstone of this reserve diversification strategy." Ghana, the world's sixth-largest producer, signed an MoU with the WGC in July to curb illegal mining and make sure "the benefits of Ghana's gold resources are realized by our communities and our nation as a whole." Translation the cheap ore pipeline to Western refiners is narrowing, and the people who run those refiners know it.

"From the perspective of major international refiners ... absolutely this trend will have an impact on their ability to source," Metals Focus MD Nikos Kavalis told Nikkei. Toshima also supplied the historical irony "Gold from the colonies flowed into London and helped underpin the British Empire's gold standard." Thecolonies, it seems, would now like to keep the gold.

Rerouting gold away from the West to dodge sanctions isn't new either; we noted it in real time right after Russia's reserves were frozen RUSSIAN GOLD PRODUCERS EXPLORE EXPORTS TO UAE, CHINA Similar to Turkey-Dubai-Iran gold triangle zerohedge zerohedge April 1, 2022 The Sanctions Premium The common thread is the one we have been pounding the table on since the spring of 2022 once the US and its allies froze Russia's FX reserves, every reserve manager in the non-aligned world learned that a dollar asset is only as safe as your relationship with Washington.

ANZ's Geullim Yum put it diplomatically to Nikkei as the dollar-centered system "comes under scrutiny, gold is gaining importance as an asset insulated from the political and fiscal policies of any single country." The data back it up. As SocGen's cross-asset team noted in its "China is buying gold again.

Are you" note available to pro subs, and which we discussed last month, the dollar's share of global FX reserves fell to 57% in 2025, down more than 5 points since 2022, while 62% of reserve managers in the 2026 central bank survey expect it to keep declining moderately over the next five years and 84% expect gold to make up a bigger share of their reserves.

SocGen's summary is about as blunt as sell-side prose gets central banks, "China, among others," are "buying the dips while continuing to reduce US Treasury holdings at a steady pace, as the de-dollarisation theme continues unabated." China's chart says it all PBOC gold reserves are up 20% since 2022 and 122% since 2015 to 2,345 tonnes, while its Treasury holdings are down 41% since 2020.

China Officially 20 Tonnes, Unofficially Much More Officially, the PBOC added 20 tons in August, its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases, which Nikkei notes is the longest streak since comparable data began in December 1999. Unofficially, the number is much bigger, which is something we have been flagging since 2024 and again here, Jun 13, 2025, well before the FT "confirmed" it Nov 15, 2025 Nothing has changed since.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• OilPrice.com