DXY 18 aylık zirveden geri geldi: euro güçleniyor, petrol ve tahvil piyasalarında hareketlilik yaşanıyor

Kısaca

DXY 102 üstü hareketleri zayıfladı; 101,75 seviyesine geriledi; Brent 98 doların altında kaldı. G7 stokları piyasayı etkiledi; Fransa getiride fayda sağladı. S&P 500 yeni rekor kırdı; Nvidia, Apple ve Microsoft endekse %21'den fazla katkı sağladı.

Ana mesele

ABD dolar endeksi 102 seviyesinin altında kalıyor; enerji ve tahvil piyasalarında hareketlilik yaşanıyor.

Ne değişti?

Euro güçleniyor; Brent petrol 98 doların altında seyretti ve G7 petrol stoklarının devreye girmesi dikkat çekti.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Kısa vadede sermaye akışları ve hisse senedi volatilitesi izlenebilir.

Ne oldu?

Dolar endeksi 102 üzeri kalamadı ve 101,75’e kadar geriledi.

Neden şimdi?

G7 stoklarının piyasaya etkisi ve enerji/tahvil getirilerindeki yönlü hareketler şu anda belirleyici.

Neden önemli?

Döviz, enerji maliyetleri ve hisse senedi volatilitesi küresel yatırımcı davranışlarını yönlendirecek.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Enerji şirketleri
• Hisse senedi traderları
• Merkez bankası iletişimi

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Piyasalar, enerji ve para politikası beklentileriyle yön bulacak

Riskler

• Volatilite artışı
• Belirsizlik seviyesinin sürmesi
• Faiz farklarının genişlemesi

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Dolar endeksi hareketleri
• Brent petrol fiyatı
• Euro/dolar paritesi
• 10 yıllık tahvil getirileri

Haberin tamamı

DXY drops back under 102.00 and below Monday's low.Lower bond yields ease French borrowing costs, and the Euro rebounds off a low.Brent fell below $98 a barrel as Gulf exports picked up, and bond yields in Europe and the US fell with it. France got the most relief, as the extra yield investors want for holding its 10-year debt over Germany's narrowed to about 1.3 percentage points from more than 1.5 on Friday. The Euro, more than half the Dollar Index, has rebounded from Monday's low, its weakest since May 2025. Every other currency in the index has gained on the Dollar except the Yen and the Swiss Franc, the two that investors buy when they're nervous. Investors are buying risk, and the S&P 500 has hit a record. The record is narrow. Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) now make up more than 21% of the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 of smaller companies is barely higher. Part of Brent Crude Oil's fall is a Group of Seven (G7) release of 100 million barrels of emergency stocks over four months. That's about five days of what went through the Strait of Hormuz before the war.On the chartsMonday's bar topped out just above 102.50, the highest since April 2025, and left a long upper wick. Tuesday's bar has gone back under 102.00 and below Monday's low. The drop reached the 101.75 area, less than a fifth of the rally from the September 9 low near 98.60, and the index is trading near 101.85. Momentum indicators have broadly turned down since late September. The index is still well above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 100.35.DXY, daily chart

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.

Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.

When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.

It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet