EUR/USD 1,1200 Seviyesini Yeniden Test Ederken Euro’ya Yönelik Riskler Artıyor

Kısaca

EUR/USD 1,1200 civarında teste yöneldi; 1,1160 çevresindeki diplerden toparlanma görülüyor. Euro bölgesi PMI’leri karışık; Sentix güven endeksi ekimde zayıfladı. Piyasa, Fransa’nın borçlanma maliyetleri ve ABD getirileriyle yön buluyor; dikkat edilmeli.

Ana mesele

EUR/USD 1,1200 seviyesinin üzerinde kalıcılık için baskı artıyor

Ne değişti?

1,1200 seviyesinin üzerinde kalıcı hareket için euro bölgesindeki veriler ve Fransa konusundaki endişeler belirleyici

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için volatilite ve işlem kararlarında dikkat gerektiren bir ortam oluşuyor

Ne oldu?

EUR/USD 1,1200 seviyesini test ederken 17 aylık diplerden toparlanma çabası sürüyor; 1,1160 civarında güçsüzleşme görüldü.

Neden şimdi?

Hizmet PMI’lerinde karışık veriler ve düşen yatırımcı güveni dönemin açığa çıkmasına yol açtı.

Neden önemli?

Euro’nun değer kaybetmesi risk iştahını zayıflatıyor; USD’nin güçlenmesi cari işlemler ve finansal koşulları etkiliyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kurumsal döviz hedgesi yapan şirketler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz ve borçlanma tarafında volatilite artışı

Riskler

• Fransa borçlanma maliyetleri baskı oluşturmaya devam edebilir
• Fed kararları belirsizliğini koruyor

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Euro Bölgesi PMI ve Sentix güven endeksi
• Fransa kamu maliyesi ve borçlanma maliyeti
• ABD Fed kararları ve getiriler
• ABD yields seviyeleri

Haberin tamamı

EUR/USD bulls push against 1.1200 after bouncing from 17-month lows at the 1.1160 area.Eurozone Services PMIs have been mixed, and investor confidence deteriorated in October.The safe-haven USD keeps drawing support from the risk-off mood amid the global bonds' selloff.The Euro (EUR) maintains its bearish tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a string of mixed Services Activity figures and weak Investor Confidence data, with concerns about France's fiscal health weighing heavily. The EUR/USD pair is trying to come back above 1.1200 at the time of writing after bouncing from fresh 17-month lows near 1.1160 earlier on the day, and following a 3% decline in the previous four weeks.Final HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index data from the Eurozone confirmed that the sector’s activity grew at a 53 pace in September, from 51.7 in August. Likewise, the German PMI has been confirmed at 52.9, from the previous month's 49.7. Italian and French PMIs slowed down beyond expectations, while Spain’s services activity beat forecasts.Beyond that, the Eurozone's Sentix Investors' Confidence, however, has deteriorated to 2.7 in October, from 5.1 in the previous month, while on the positive side, Italy's public debt-to-GDP ratio contracted to 2% in the second quarter from 4.8% in the first one. Concerns about France’s fiscal health are hammering the EuroThe Euro, however, has come under additional pressure on Monday as France’s borrowing costs soar amid rising social unrest, and with the gridlock in the government practically discarding any credible savings plan. The yield of the French 10-year government bond hit 4.99% on Friday, surpassing the peak of 2008, which has reactivated concerns of a credit crisis that might extend to other Eurozone members.Risk aversion keeps fuelling the US Dollar against its main peers on Monday, offsetting the negative impact of the soft labour report seen on Friday and the dwindling hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in October.The benchmark US 10-year yield remains above the key 5%, which, so far, is acting as a tailwind for the USD. Analysts at DBS Group Research, however, warn that “higher yields driven by Fed tightening can support the USD,” but that “higher term premia driven by concerns over debt supply, fiscal sustainability, and Treasury-market credibility need not,” suggesting that yield gains rooted in market anxiety rather than monetary policy may offer far less durable support for the Dollar.

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually, a higher reading is seen as positive for the Eurozone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet