EUR/USD yeniden toparlanıyor: ABD getirilerinin geri çekilmesi ve Fed-ECB sinyalleri etkisi

Kısaca

EUR/USD 1,1202 civarında, gün içi 1,1171’e kadar geriledi; DXY 102,24. 10 yıllık ABD tahvil getirisi 5,28% yönünde seyrediyor; 5,36% zirveden geri çekildi. Enerji fiyatlarındaki yükseliş enflasyon risklerini güçlendiriyor; Fed/ECB sinyalleri ön planda.

Ana mesele

ABD getirilerinin geri çekilmesiyle EUR/USD’nin baskısının azaldığı ancak enerji ve enflasyon risklerinin baskıyı sürdürdüğü gözleniyor

Ne değişti?

Fed tutanaklarının yıl içinde bir kez daha faiz artışını muhtemel gördüğü belirtiliyor; ECB seçeneklerini açık tuttu

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya etkisi: kur hareketlerini izlemek ve enerji fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalara karşı dikkatli olmak gerekir

Ne oldu?

ABD getirilerinde geri çekilme oldu; EUR/USD toparlandı.

Neden şimdi?

Fed tutanakları ve ECB görünümü, politika duruşlarını korumaya işaret ediyor.

Neden önemli?

Enerji fiyatları enflasyonla baskıyı sürdürürken, kur hareketleri yatırım kararlarını etkiler.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Kur yatırımcıları
• Enerji, emtia ve ihracat odaklı şirketler
• Merkez bankaları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Kur ve faiz dinamikleriyle enerji fiyatları spekülasyonları etkileniyor

Riskler

• Enerji fiyatlarının yüksek kalması
• Fed/ECB politikalarında belirsizlik

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed tutanakları ve yıl içi olası faiz artışına ilişkin sinyaller
• ECB politika varyasyonları ve iletişim

Haberin tamamı

EUR/USD rebounds as a pullback in US Treasury yields limits the Greenback’s advance.Higher Oil prices keep inflation risks elevated on both sides of the Atlantic.Fed minutes favour another hike this year, while the ECB keeps its policy options open.EUR/USD rebounds during American trading hours on Thursday as a pullback in US Treasury yields tempers the US Dollar’s (USD) momentum. However, France’s fiscal concerns and broader US Dollar strength keep the Euro (EUR) pinned near the 17-month low touched earlier this week. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1202, recovering from an intraday low of 1.1171.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.24, below Monday’s peak of 102.53, its highest level since April 2025. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield eases toward 5.28% after reaching 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2002.Despite the retreat, Oil-driven inflation risks and expectations of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep upward pressure on yields. Concerns over government debt and resilient US economic growth also contribute to elevated borrowing costs.Oil prices rebound on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining over 3% after reports that the Pentagon has ordered preparations for possible renewed strikes on Iran. The threat of renewed escalation raises concerns that energy prices could stay high for longer, making it harder for both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to bring inflation back to their 2% targets and adding pressure to keep monetary policy tight.Minutes from the Fed’s September monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, show that officials acknowledged inflation remained elevated, the labour market was near maximum employment and economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Most participants considered another rate increase likely appropriate by year-end, with the CME FedWatch Tool placing the odds of a December hike at around 86%.On the European side, the ECB’s September meeting account, released on Thursday, revealed that policymakers saw the outlook as highly uncertain and critically dependent on geopolitical developments, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Updated staff projections indicated that inflation would stay well above target for an extended period. Officials stressed that future decisions should remain data-dependent, without committing to a particular rate path.A Reuters poll conducted October 5-8 shows that 70 of 73 economists expect the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29, while 64 of 73 anticipate a 25-basis-point hike in December.

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet