Euro Bölgesel Politika Söylemleri ve Fed Tutumunun Piyasaya Etkisi: EURUSD Yakın Merkez Seviyelerde

Kısaca

Euro stabilizasyonu; ECB/BoE konuşmaları bekleniyor, Fed tutanaklarında yılsonu olası bir artış ihtimali vurgulanıyor. Fed tutanakları ve AI yatırımları talep baskısını güçlendirebilir ve euroya baskı/destek yönlü hareketler getiriyor. Piyasa yakından izlemeli: ECB/BoE konuşmaları ve Fed sonrası kalibrasyonlar kur ve varlık fiyatlarında yön gösterecek.

Ana mesele

Avrupa para birimleri politika konuşmaları ve Fed tüyoları ön planda euroya yön veriyor.

Ne değişti?

Fed tutumuna ilişkin ayrıntılar ile Avrupa tarafındaki politika iletişimi arasındaki bağlantı öne çıktı.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya kur ve varlık fiyatlarında yakın vadeli hareketler için tetikleyici olası değişimler sunar.

Ne oldu?

Euro, Avrupa Merkez Bankası ve BoE konuşmaları sonrası sınırlı bir durumda kaldı; Fed tutanakları yıl sonunda bir artış ihtimalini güçlendirdi.

Neden şimdi?

Bu hafta politika konuşmaları ve verilerin birlikte etkisi altında piyasa yön arıyor.

Neden önemli?

Para politikası farkları ve beklentiler, kura doğrudan etki ediyor; yatırımcılar risk iştahını ayarlıyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar ve kur işlem yapanlar
• Kur riskine sahip şirketler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz piyasalarında volatilite artabilir; bazı paritelerde dalgalı hareketler görülebilir

Riskler

• Fed tutanaklarındaki sürpriz iletişim
• ECB/BoE açıklamalarının beklenenden güçlü veya zayıf olması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• ECB ve BoE konuşmalarının tonu
• Fed tutanaklarındaki olası yön değişiklikleri
• AI yatırımlarının talep üzerindeki etkisi

Haberin tamamı

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 8:The Euro (EUR) holds steady against its rivals in the European session on Thursday after suffering large losses midweek. Later in the day, policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will be delivering speeches. Additionally, the ECB will publish the minutes of its September policy meeting and the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories data for August.

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The widening French-German bond yield spreads, and growing doubts over the ECB's ability to tighten the policy forced the Euro to stay under bearish pressure on Wednesday. EUR/USD lost more than 0.5% and came within a touching distance of the 17-month low it touched near 1.1160 last week. EUR/JPY fell 0.6% on the day, while EUR/GBP closed the ninth consecutive trading day in negative territory. Early Thursday, EUR/USD trades marginally lower on the day, slightly below 1.1200. During the American trading hours, the Fed released the minutes of the September meeting. The publication showed that most policymakers judged that another hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year and that they increasingly focused on upside inflation risks, a resilient economy and the possibility that strong AI investment could add to demand pressures.Euro finds limited support as Fed hike odds fadeAnalysts at Commerzbank note that, from the perspective of the “expected interest rate differential between the Euro area and the US,” recent developments have actually been “somewhat supportive of the Euro.” They point out that “the probability of a Fed rate hike in October is now seen as lower than it was at the end of last week,” a shift that was “reinforced by the FOMC minutes released yesterday.” According to Commerzbank, while “many policymakers continued to favour another rate increase this year, the timing remains uncertain,” and importantly, a “single additional rate hike was mentioned rather than the multiple hikes that markets are still pricing in,” tempering the hawkish implications for USD and offering only modest relief for EUR.In the meantime, crude Oil prices gain traction on Thursday, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising more than 2% on the day and trading slightly above $90.50. Markets also seem to have adopted a cautious stance as US stock index futures lose about 0.7% on the day. The Pentagon told US Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, Axios reported on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump hasn't made any final decisions or included a specific date for launching strikes, but the US and Israeli sources said it could happen before the US midterm elections and possibly the Israeli elections a week earlier. A White House official stated that Trump has all options available at any time.Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said on Thursday that the country does not require reflationary policy now, adding that she aims to gain market trust by keeping communication highly transparent. After closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday, USD/JPY clings to small gains above 158.50 in the European morning.Gold (XAU/USD) lost more than 1% on Wednesday, pressured by the broad based USD strength. XAU/USD corrects higher on Thursday and trades above $4,100.GBP/USD struggles to gather recovery momentum and trades near 1.3200 following Wednesday's sharp decline. AUD/USD trades in the red near 0.6950 after losing 0.3% on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the data from Australia showed that Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to 5.3% in October from 4.9% in September.

What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.

The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.

The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.

QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet