Fed’in Hammack görüşü: Yüksek enflasyon ortamında politika ekonomiyi kısıtlamıyor görünüyor

Kısaca

Fed’in Hammack görüşü: Enflasyon yüksek olsa da politika kısıtlayıcı görünmüyor; belirsizlik sürüyor Arka planda ABD mali yönetişimi ve enflasyon beklentileri sabit kalıyor Piyasalarda kısa vadede politika değişimine bağlı hareketler izlenecek

Ana mesele

Yüksek enflasyon ortamında para politikası ekonomiyi kısıtlamıyor görünse de belirsizlik sürüyor

Ne değişti?

Görüş, enflasyon yüksek olsa da mevcut politika kısıtlayıcı görünmüyor yorumunu teyit ediyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya, Fed politikalarının kısa vadede finansal koşulları desteklediğini ve yatırımcı davranışlarını etkileyebileceğini gösterir

Ne oldu?

Hammack, politika halen kısıtlayıcı değil dedi; enflasyon beklentileri sabit görünüyor.

Neden şimdi?

Yüksek enflasyonun sürmesi ve finansal koşullardaki değişimler dikkat çekiyor.

Neden önemli?

İş dünyası ve yatırımcılar için mali planlama güvenliğini etkileyebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• finansal piyasalar
• borçlanma maliyeti
• işletmeler
• hanehalkı

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Tahvil getirileri ve kredilerin maliyeti üzerinde etkiler gözlemlenebilir

Riskler

• belirsizlik artışı
• enflasyon sürprizleri
• bütçe baskıları

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• enflasyon verileri
• Fed toplantıları
• finansal koşullar
• borçlanma maliyetleri

Haberin tamamı

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are not in conflict. She said that “high inflation complicates economic planning,” and that she doesn’t see current policy as restraining the economy.Hammack added that inflation expectations are “well anchored.”Key highlights:There are lots of long-term questions on what AI will mean for inflationSides of Fed mandates are generally not in conflictPersistently high inflation has 'real costs', pressures wagesHigh inflation complicates economic planningFed policy is not restraining activity outside of housingDon't see current policy as restraining the economyRising bond yields driven by a number of factorsGood economic outlook is pressuring up bond yieldsSome of what the bond market is doing is in reaction to the Fed and government policyAI investment demand is competing for investors in the bond marketInflation expectations are reasonably well anchoredThe US is on an unsustainable fiscal pathI am mindful of financial conditions, but the Fed is the decision maker on monetary policy

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.

When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.

When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.

The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.

It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet