Hindistan Borsasında Şiddetli Satış Sonrası Faiz ve Petrol Baskısı Piyasaları Nasıl Etkiliyor?

Kısaca

Sensex ve Nifty son 6 haftada kayıpları genişletti; piyasa değeri yaklaşık Rs 30 lakh crore azaldı Arka planda petrol ve tahvil getirileriyle jeopolitik gerilim baskısı sürüyor Gelecek haftalarda düşüşün yapısal olarak toparlanması için petrol fiyatlarının geri çekilmesi ve ruarın istikrar kazanması izlenecek

Ana mesele

Birleşik etkiyle Hindistan hisse senetleri rallisinin kırılma yaşaması

Ne değişti?

Makro başlıklar toparlanana kadar yükseliş için net sinyal bulunmuyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için piyasa belirsizliğinin sürmesi, yatırım kararlarının temkinli alınması gerektiğini işaret ediyor

Ne oldu?

Hindistan hisse senetlerinde satış baskısı güç kazandı; Nifty 50, 22.179 seviyesine geriledi.

Neden şimdi?

Petrol fiyatlarındaki yükseliş, uzun vadeli getiri endişeleri ve RBI’nin tough tone’u baskıyı artırdı.

Neden önemli?

Geniş piyasa değerinin düşmesi, yatırımcı güvenini zayıflatarak toparlanma için güven oluşturmada zayıf işaretler oluşturuyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yabancı yatırımcılar
• Yerel yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Tüm BSE-listed şirketlerin piyasa değeri düşmüş görünüyor; BSE 30’a etkisi hissediliyor

Riskler

• Kısa vadede alım fırsatları için net bir işaret yok
• Gelir ve harcama gücü üzerinde baskı artabilir
• Jeopolitik enerji baskısı sürebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Petrol fiyatları hareketi
• RBI’nin iletişimi ve faiz politikası
• FII/DII net sermaye akımları
• Dolaşımdaki yerleşik karlılık verileri

Haberin tamamı

The Indian stock market has recently witnessed a sharp selloff, with soaring oil prices, skyrocketing bond yields and RBI’s hawkish tone pushing both benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty to fresh 52-week lows this month. Analysts expect a rebound to be driven by a combination of several factors, although technical charts warrant caution.The Nifty 50 hit its lowest level since April 2025 on Thursday, sinking to 22,179.

Dalal Street’s sharp sell-off wiped out more than Rs 10 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE in just one day, taking it to around Rs 460 lakh crore.Since early September, the selloff has erased nearly Rs 30 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies to Thursday’s level, which marks the lowest since June.

Amid this bloodbath, the question now remains what will trigger a market rebound.Also read | Why market crashed on Thursday?What will bring the bulls back to Dalal Street?The return of the bulls will depend less on one trigger and more on a reversal of the current macro headwinds, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. He noted that a sustained cooling in crude oil prices and West Asian tensions, moderation in US bond yields and a stabilising rupee would improve risk appetite.

Equally important would be a slowdown in FII selling, alongside continued DII support.This comes as foreign investors have been massively selling Indian equities, with the selloff intensifying from the second half of September onwards.

Latest fortnightly data from NSDL show FIIs net sold Indian equities worth Rs 35,861 crore across sectors during last month.Domestically, stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, resilient consumption and improving earnings visibility can provide fundamental support, Mishra from Religare Broking added.

“The recent sharp correction has also improved valuations, but technically the market needs to build a durable base before a sustained rebound can take shape.”Also read | TCS Q2 results: Profit rises 15% YoY to Rs 13,884 crore; co declares dividend at Rs 12 per shareTechnical charts indicate further downturnFrom a technical perspective, the trend however remains firmly bearish, as Nifty has slipped below all key moving averages, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities pointed out.

“Momentum indicators also continue to indicate weakness, while the daily RSI remains in the super bearish zone as per the RSI range shift framework. Therefore, the index is likely to remain under pressure and continue its downward trajectory in the near term,” the analyst said.Going ahead, the zone of 22,350-22,400 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for the index on the upside, according to the analyst.

He warned that as long as Nifty remains below the 22,400 mark, the prevailing bearish trend is expected to continue. In the short term, the index may extend its decline towards 22,100, with the next key support placed around 21,950, he said. “A sustained move above 22,400 will be required to ease the immediate downside pressure and improve the short-term outlook.”Also read | RBI rate hike done. Now what’s ahead for bank stocks?

Jefferies, other analysts weigh inDisclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication.

The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.

Kaynaklar

• Economic Times - Markets