Hindistan mücevher piyasasında festivale hazırlık: talep dirençli kalırken fiyatlar baskı yapıyor

Kısaca

Mücevher piyasası festivale yaklaşırken talep dirençli görünüyor; Rs 11,18 lakh crore piyasa büyüklüğü hedef olarak konuşuluyor. IBEF verilerine göre küresel talep ve Hindistan’daki organize perakende genişliyor; uzun vadeli görünüm olumlu. Piyasa izleyicileri Titan ve Kalyan Jewellers dışında Senco Gold ile Lalithaa Jewellery Mart’i de yakından takip ediyor ve hacim/gerçekleşen getiri izleyecekler.

Ana mesele

Yükselen altın fiyatlarıyla tüketici talebi festivale rağmen dengeli kalıyor

Ne değişti?

Talep direnci ve perakende payı artışıyla büyüme potansiyeli korunuyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar için earnings marjları ile büyüme odakları izlenecek

Ne oldu?

Piyasa analistleri mücevher talebinin festival dönemiyle güçleneceğini öngörüyor.

Neden şimdi?

Festivaller ve düğün sezonu talebin desteklenmesini sağlayabilir; altın fiyatları baskı unsuru olmaya devam ediyor.

Neden önemli?

Büyüme potansiyeli ve karlılık, organize perakende payının artmasıyla güçlenebilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Mücevher perakendesi işletmecileri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Perakende ve tasarruf/gelir realizasyonları etkilenebilir

Riskler

• Altın fiyatları volatilitesi
• Talep bozulması riski
• Maliyet yapısında baskılar

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Talep trendleri festivaller sonrası
• Realizasyon ve marj gelişimi
• Organize perakende paylarındaki değişimler
• Yeni oyuncuların pazar payı üzerindeki etkisi

Haberin tamamı

India’s gems and jewellery sector is heading into the festive season with analysts betting on resilient consumer demand and wedding-related purchases to support sales, despite elevated gold prices. While Titan Company and Kalyan Jewellers remain key stocks to track, Senco Gold and Lalithaa Jewellery Mart are also drawing attention for their potential growth opportunities.The long-term outlook for the sector remains constructive.

India’s gems and jewellery market is projected to reach Rs 11.18 lakh crore ($130 billion) by 2030, supported by global demand for gold jewellery and cut and polished diamonds, rising consumer spending in markets such as the US, UK and the Middle East, and the expansion of organised retailers, according to the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF).Jewellery stocks to watch as festive demand kicks inRavi Singh, chief research officer at Mastertrust, expects the jewellery sector to benefit from resilient festive demand, wedding purchases and healthy consumer sentiment, even as gold prices remain elevated.Consumers are adapting to higher prices by opting for lightweight jewellery, lower-ticket purchases and old-gold exchanges, helping support demand volumes, Singh said.Organised players such as Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers and Senco Gold could benefit from market-share gains, while higher realisations may support revenue growth, he said.

However, margins and volume growth will remain key monitorables.Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities, said gold prices have been in a consolidation phase, with rising bond yields and interest rates likely to keep prices range-bound for some time.However, he expects domestic gold demand to remain steady as India enters the festive season.“Despite any negative sentiment around gold, whether prices rise or fall, demand for gold in India is likely to remain steady,” Bathini said.He also highlighted the contribution of making charges to jewellery retailers’ earnings, noting that revenues come not only from gold sales but also from charges levied for manufacturing jewellery.Beyond Titan and Kalyan, why Senco Gold and Lalithaa Jewellery Mart are on the radarFor jewellery retailers, the festive season will put the focus on sales volumes, revenue growth, realisations and margins as consumers navigate elevated gold prices.

Analysts see opportunities beyond the sector’s established leaders, but stock-specific valuations, earnings delivery and margin trends will be crucial in determining which jewellery retailers can sustain growth.Singh has identified Senco Gold as a stock with growth potential, citing its valuation and revenue performance.According to Singh, Senco Gold is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 9.5 times.

The company reported revenue of Rs 3,056 crore in the first quarter and has retained its guidance for 20% value growth in FY27.Singh said investors could consider the stock at Rs 300, adding that he sees potential for strong growth and attractive returns.Bathini, meanwhile, has flagged newly listed Lalithaa Jewellery Mart as another stock to watch, alongside Titan and Kalyan Jewellers.Lalithaa Jewellery Mart’s initial public offering was priced at Rs 201 per share.

The stock listed on the NSE at Rs 265 on August 24, 2026, before touching a record high of Rs 414.10 on October 7. It was last trading at Rs 361.85, based on the price data provided.Bathini said investors could watch the stock on declines, with the company’s financial results likely to provide a clearer basis for assessing its performance and prospects.

He also named Titan and Kalyan Jewellers among his preferred stocks to track in the sector.Disclosure: This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a Sebi-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and their ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication.

The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective Sebi-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here

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• Economic Times - Markets