Hisse senetleri baskı altında; getiriler yükseliyor ve 30 yıllık tahvil ihalesi bugün saat 13:00’te odak noktası

Kısaca

Dow endeksi yaklaşık yüzde 0,7 düşüş kaydetti; S&P ve Nasdaq yüzde 0,2 civarında geriledi 30 yıllık tahvil için 22 milyar dolarlık ihale bugün saat 13:00’te bekleniyor Petrol yükseliyor, altın düşüyor; Transports endeksi zayıflıyor

Ana mesele

Hisse senetleri baskı altında; getiriler yükseliyor ve 30 yıllık tahvil ihalesi bugün saat 13:00'te odak noktası

Ne değişti?

Piyasanın ana etkenleri küresel getiri baskısı ve enerji fiyatlarındaki hareketler olarak öne çıkıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya etkisi: yatırımcılar tarafında baskı ve hareketlilik artabilir

Ne oldu?

Hisse senetleri genel olarak baskı altında seyretti; getiriler yükseldi ve 30 yıllık tahvil ihalesi gündemde

Neden şimdi?

Mevcut getiri baskısı ve enerji fiyatlarındaki hareketler, yatırımcı güvenini etkiliyor

Neden önemli?

Borçlanma maliyetleri ve talep koşulları kısa vadede piyasalara yön veriyor

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Küresel piyasa takipçileri
• Kısa vadeli yatırım fonları
• Teknoloji hisse senetleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finans ve enerji sektörlerinde volatilite artabilir; teknoloji hisseleri görece dayanıklı kalabilir

Riskler

• Geri çekilmede beklenmeyen sürprizler
• Enerji fiyatlarındaki aşırı oynaklık
• Likidite koşullarında daralma

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 30 yıllık tahvil ihalesinin sonuçları
• Getiri eğrisi hareketleri ve petrol/enerji fiyatları
• Borsalarda kısa vadeli destek/direnç seviyeleri

Haberin tamamı

Stocks Sold off and they are headed lower again today.Bond yields continue to push higher.$22 billion dollar auction on 30 yr money today.Oil up, gold down.Fed mins suggest patience.Try the Rigatoni ai Tre PomodoriOh look—stocks sold off! And if you’re really surprised, I’d say you’ve been living under a rock…The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields were rising, global bond yields were rising, oil was rising…and European markets were under pressure. That set the tone.

Futures were weak, stocks opened lower and then got slammed—the Dow down more than 600 points before 11 am. Another reminder that the cost of money matters.By the end of the day, though, it wasn’t the disaster it threatened to be. Stocks finished lower, but well off their morning lows. Here’s how it wound up…The Dow lost 0.7%, the S&P gave back 0.2%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.2% and the Russell fell 1.3%.

Smaller companies tend to be more sensitive to financing costs, leaving them more exposed when rates rise. The Transports lost 0.9%, with the early jump in oil adding pressure, the Equal Weight S&P gave back 0.8%, while the Mag 7 slipped 0.2%.So, again, you can see how the heavyweight tech and tech-related names—even on a down day—continue to cushion the headline indexes.

The S&P, Nasdaq and Mag 7 remain near their highs while much of the rest of the market reprices.We discussed this yesterday, but let’s put it in perspective…The Dow is roughly 6% off its high and approaching its long-term trendline. The Equal Weight S&P is down 5.6%. It has tested and held that support—while the Russell is off 9% and sitting right on top of its long-term trendline.

These declines are still within the range of ordinary market pullbacks - all below the conventional 10% correction threshold. But that doesn’t mean you aren’t feeling the pressure…individual names can be (and many are) down considerably more, and whether these trendline supports hold matters.The Transports- though, are a different story…. they broke their trendline and have moved lower from there and are now down 19% knocking on the door of a full-blown bear mkt…..

And we won’t see any relief there until we see an end to the middle east conflict and oil moves lower – which at the moment is nowhere in sight.But the real drama – was in the bond market…. The 2-year kissed 4.78%, the 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5.36%, while the 30-year also touched its highest level since 2002 clocking in at 5.73%.Then came the $39 billion 10 yr bond auction….

buyers choosing to settle for a 5.3% yield to lend money for 10 yrs…now that was 1.7 bps below what the 10-yr was yielding which was seen as a positive…. Stocks then moved higher, just not enough to go positive.Now, yields backed off after the FED mins were released – suggesting just what we already knew…. all 12 members voted to hike, but they are also willing to let the data detail the next move with the bulk of them willing to be patient – suggesting just one more hike higher vs.

the two that some analysts think. And the fed fund futures market agrees…suggesting only a 19% chance of an October hike, while it still suggests an 84% chance of a December hike.This morning though, bonds are being tested again…. both the 10 -yr and 30 -yr yields are up…. The 10-yr yield is up 4 bps at 5.32% while the 30-yr is up 4 bps at 5.71%.And just in case you haven’t noticed - conventional 30 yr mortgage rates are now 7.49% up 24% since the start of the year…And then there was oil….

Brent settled at $100.20 while WTI closed at $88.28 – both just a bit lower. But fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia and the pending hurricane about to hit the Louisiana coastline threaten to send prices higher. This morning Brent is up $4 at $104.30 while WTI is up $3.50 at $91.80. In any event – we are not getting any relief from the energy sector.Gold lost $50 yesterday to end the day at $4,110 – but not before testing as low as $4,067 – getting ever closer to the key $4,000 level.

This morning, gold is up $12 at $4,122…. My guess is that it is only a matter of time for gold to break $4,000…because if bond yields continue to push higher, gold will continue to get pushed lower…and my sense is that bond yields are not coming down significantly any time soon.And the VIX continues to tell us not to worry….

At 15.73 – it is below all 3 trendlines and that says that investors are NOT paying aggressively for downside protection – which says more about sentiment than it does about risk. I think that is a disconnect…. Think about it - sentiment down/risk up? It doesn’t make sense.This morning – we learned that the US (Trump) no longer wants to deal with Iran – Marco Rubio telling us that they have ‘passed up multiple opportunities’, to come to the table.

Diplomatic efforts led by Stevie Witkoff have stalled so the US (and Israeli) military is preparing to strike them again – The rumor is most likely before the mid-term elections.There is no eco data to move the markets. But there is a $22 billion 30 yr auction – and considering what happened at yesterday’s 10 yr auction, we may be surprised.And that brings us back to earnings – With oil up and borrowing costs up, corporate profits have a lot of work to do to support stock prices.….

remember what I said yesterday.“FactSet is expecting profits to rise by 29.3% y/y, Bloomberg Intelligence expects them to rise by 25% y/y – either way - that’s not nothing….and it helps explain why some investors are looking past the much of the negativity.So here is my concern – how much good news is already priced into some of those highflyers? Because when stocks hit records BEFORE the results arrive, then companies better deliver.

They better not disappoint on any metric, not one…and the guidance will need to be robust, or the action will be at risk. And remember – they can have a great qtr. but if they are cautious going forward – expect to see a lot of RED.

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Kaynaklar

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