Honkong’da Faiz Artışları Gelecek Aylar İçinde Yüzde 30’a Varan İndirimlerle Konut Talebini Etkileyebilir

Kısaca

Konut baskısı 2022-23’e göre farklı; Morgan Stanley korkuyu azaltıyor ve kısa vadeli bir toparlanma öngörüyor Çin ana kara talebi zayıflaması ve Fed’in ek sıkılaştırmasıyla Hong Kong’un kredi maliyeti sınırlı etkide artabilir Gelecek 6 ayda Fed’in artırım hızı 0,75 yüzde puan olarak öngörüldüğü için konut talebinde dalgalanma izlence noktası

Ana mesele

Kısa vadede faiz artışları Hong Kong konut piyasasında 2022-2023 seviyesine benzer baskı oluşturabilir

Ne değişti?

Faiz artışlarının kısa ve sığ bir etkisi öngörülüyor; talep öncekinden daha dayanıklı

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya konut harcamaları ve yatırım kararlarında dikkatli olunması gerektiğini hatırlatır

Ne oldu?

Hong Kong’taki konut piyasası, Fed’in uzun vadeli sıkılaşmasıyla baskı altında.

Neden şimdi?

Gelecek aylarda beklenen faiz artışları ve yerel bankaların kredi koşulları değişiyor.

Neden önemli?

Konut yatırımı ve tüketici harcamaları üzerinde doğrudan etkisi olabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Konut alıcıları
• Konut geliştiricileri
• Bankalar ve finansal kurumlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Konut pazarı dalgalı seyredebilir; fiyat baskısı değişkenleşir

Riskler

• Faiz artışlarının sürmesiyle talep zayıflaması
• Kredi maliyetlerinin baskılanması
• piyasa güveninin kısa vadeli dalgalanması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed’in nihai sıkılaştırma hedefi
• Kredi mevduat oranlarındaki değişimler
• İç talebe bağlı konut satışları ve geliştirme projeleri

Haberin tamamı

Hong Kong looks set to be hit by a wave of interest rate rises in the coming months, but the city’s property market is unlikely to suffer the same level of damage as during the last rate cycle in 2022-2023, according to analysts.

Though major Hong Kong banks have so far held rates steady despite the US Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate earlier this month, they are widely expected to increase them if the Fed follows through with further tightening later this year.

The combination of renewed Fed tightening and weaker demand on the Chinese mainland had “revived uncomfortable memories” of 2022-2023, when property prices in Hong Kong plunged by double-digit levels, Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday.

But analysts stressed that the city’s property market was in a better position to deal with the fallout of higher interest rates than in 2022, with banks carrying more deposits and steady talent inflows boosting local demand.

Concern over the looming rate increases was visible on Tuesday, when Yuexiu Property offered nearly 30 per cent discounts on the flats at its The Atlas project in Yau Tong.

The discounted prices – which averaged HK$13,988 per square foot – were the lowest seen for a project in urban Kowloon in a decade, according to Centaline Property. They were even lower than CK Asset’s Coast Line II launch in the same district in 2023, which sparked a price war among developers at the time.

Nevertheless, analysts said the outlook for Hong Kong property was different from 2022-2023 in several ways, with Morgan Stanley saying it expected the rate shock to be “a hiccup, not a stall” for the city’s property upcycle.

For one thing, Morgan Stanley expects the coming rate increase cycle to be “short” and “shallow” compared with 2022-2023. The Fed is likely to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points over the next six months, whereas in 2022-2023 rates soared by more than 5 percentage points over 17 months, according to the bank.

The pass-through to local borrowing costs is also likely to be more limited than in the past, as Hong Kong’s loan-to-deposit ratio has fallen to a 19-year low, reducing banks’ need for wholesale funding, according to Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank expects the one-month Hibor – an interbank lending rate in Hong Kong, which serves as the basis for most mortgages – to rise about 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 per cent by March, with prime rates increasing by just 0.125 percentage points.

“2026-2027 is not a deja vu of 2022-2023,” the report said.

Angus Luk, senior director at CBRE, made a similar distinction, pointing out that the damage caused to Hong Kong property in 2022-2023 “reflected cumulative tightening pressure”, with buyers facing the impact of a prolonged and rapid rate-increase cycle.

The property market is also starting from a stronger base than in 2022-2023. Primary-market transactions in 2026 were 38.2 per cent above 2023 levels before the latest Fed rate increase, while secondary transactions were up 13.4 per cent, CBRE data shows.

Rents, meanwhile, have risen 10.6 per cent since 2023, while the median monthly income for two-person households has increased 10 per cent to HK$33,000 (US$4,200), according to CBRE.

However, Luk still expects price consolidation, slower transactions and wider negotiation margins in the secondary market. Developers were likely to use discounts and financing incentives rather than broad headline price cuts, he said.

Morgan Stanley expects property prices to stay broadly flat in the fourth quarter before rising 5 per cent in 2027. Steady talent inflows were helping to sustain demand for property in Hong Kong, it noted.

In a bull case, prices could gain 10 per cent next year and return to their 2018 peak if Middle East tensions ease, oil prices normalise and mainland economic rebalancing accelerates, it added.

UBS struck a more cautious note, saying interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong property assets remained limited in a research report published on Monday.

The European bank expects home prices to correct moderately in the fourth quarter, putting full-year 2026 growth at 5 per cent to 10 per cent, below the 12 per cent gain so far this year.

Kaynaklar

• South China Morning Post - Business