Hormuz Boğazı Krizi Yatırımları Şekillendirdi: LNG Spot Piyasasında Avantaj Yakalayan Şirketler

Kısaca

LNG spot piyasasında подвиг sağlayan Venture Global net karını yükseltti: 266% artışla 1,3 milyar dolar; gelir 4,6 milyar dolar. Şirketin 2026 için düzeltilmiş EBITDA rehberi 8,7–9,1 milyar dolar aralığında güncellendi. İMALAT SİSTEMİ: 2025 Ocak’ta halka arzı 25 dolar üzerinden gerçekleşen Venture Global, yıl sonunda hisseleri düşüş yaşadı.

Ana mesele

Doğal gaz piyasasında Hormuz Boğazı krizinin spot piyasalara etkisi belirginleşti.

Ne değişti?

Hormuz krizinin etkisiyle spot piyasaya yönelen yatırımcılar için Venture Global gibi şirketler öne çıktı.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya gaz fiyatları ve LNG arzına yönelik risklerle ilgili yeni fırsat ve tehditleri gösterir.

Ne oldu?

Hormuz Boğazı’ndaki kriz, LNG arzını etkiledi ve spot piyasa taleplerini artırdı.

Neden şimdi?

Kriz sürüyor ve uzun vadeli kontratlar ertelendi; spot talep patladı.

Neden önemli?

Spot piyasaya odaklanan şirketler kısa vadede güçlü performans gösterebiliyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Yatırımcılar
• Gaz alıcıları
• Küresel ticaret akışları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Spot piyasa kırılganlığı arttı; bazı şirketler gelirlerini yükseltiyor.

Riskler

• Fiyat oynaklığı artışı
• Tedarik tarafında kesintinin uzaması
• Regülasyon baskısı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• LNG kontrat yapılarına ilişkin değişimler
• Hormuz bölgesinde yeni gelişmeler
• EBITDA rehberlerindeki güncellemeler

Haberin tamamı

When Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan complex in March and knocked out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity, the trade seemed pretty straightforward. Buy the American exporters, sit back and wait for Europe and Asia to come knocking for cargoes that didn't need to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Cheniere did exactly what everyone expected it to do, shipping more LNG than it did a year ago and raising its 2026 guidance for the second quarter in a row.

Nearly seven months into the war, the strait is still a mess. QatarEnergy just extended force majeure on its LNG deliveries through the end of November, flows through Hormuz are still down more than 75% from prewar levels, and on Tuesday an LNG carrier owned by Greek shipping magnate Maria Angelicoussis became the latest vessel hit near the strait.

Gas prices in Europe and Asia climbed to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis in September, while back home, Henry Hub has been stuck around $3. As the crisis has dragged on, though, a handful of less obvious companies have started making just as strong a case for themselves, from an IPO most of Wall Street had written off to an oil producer that, at one point this year, was effectively paying buyers to take its gas. Venture Global Venture Global Inc.

NYSE VG had about as rough a first year on the public markets as an energy company can have. The Louisiana exporter priced its IPO at $25 a share in January 2025, and by the end of the year the stock was changing hands in the single digits. Investors hated the business model, which leaned on selling LNG into the spot market while long-term customers, including Shell and BP, waited on their contracted cargoes and eventually took the company to arbitration over it.

[RegisterBanner] As it turns out, a company built to sell into the spot market is exactly what you'd want to own when the spot market goes haywire. Venture Global's net income jumped 266% to $1.3 billion in the second quarter on $4.6 billion in revenue, and management bumped full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance up to between $8.7 billion and $9.1 billion.

Baked into that forecast is an assumption that it'll earn somewhere between $12.50 and $13.50 per MMBtu in liquefaction fees on its remaining unsold cargoes, on gas that costs about a quarter of that to buy in the U.S. The long-term buyers are coming around, too. On Oct.

1, ConocoPhillips signed a 20-year deal to take 1 million tonnes a year from Venture Global starting in 2030, and CEO Mike Sabel said it reflected confidence in the company's ability to deliver LNG "quickly and at scale." ConocoPhillips also owns a 30% stake in QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan LNG project, so this is a bit like a landlord quietly putting down a deposit on an apartment across town. None of that has made the stock easy to own.

Shares rose more than 50% in the first few weeks of the war, fell 5% on the day the company posted the best quarter in its history and have bounced around in the low-to-mid teens since. That's still about half of what IPO buyers paid, and with so much of the upside riding on spot prices, I'd expect a good chunk of those gains to disappear if ships ever start moving freely through Hormuz again. APA Corp In the second quarter, APA Corp.

Nasdaq APA realized an average of negative $2.20 per Mcf for the natural gas it produced in the U.S., which means that on paper, the company was paying to get rid of it. Prices at the Waha hub in West Texas have spent much of the year underwater as Permian pipelines max out, and APA ended up curtailing about 137 MMcf per day of production in response. And yet APA might be one of the better LNG plays in the U.S. market, mostly thanks to a deal that predates the war by years.

The company sells 140,000 MMBtu per day to Cheniere at prices pegged to international LNG benchmarks under a contract that started in 2023 and runs through 2037, and between that and a firm transportation business that buys gas in the Permian and resells it on the Gulf Coast, APA expects to clear about $950 million in pretax cash flow from gas trading this year.

Barclays analyst Betty Jiang told CNBC in May that APA has "the greatest exposure to LNG prices in our coverage," and it showed up in the second-quarter results adjusted earnings of $1.89 per share, $738 million in free cash flow and $2.3 billion in debt paid down since the end of 2024. The stock had climbed 89% over the 52 weeks leading into that report, though APA is still an oil company at heart, and when crude sells off on ceasefire chatter, it goes right along with it.

Golar LNG Golar LNG Ltd. Nasdaq GLNG spent eight years parking a converted floating liquefaction vessel off the coast of Cameroon, and according to Wood Mackenzie, that one unit, the Hilli, earned back its roughly $1.3 billion conversion cost and generated around $2.1 billion in tolling EBITDA along the way.

Golar is also the only company offering floating LNG on a lease-and-operate basis, so if you're a country sitting on gas with no export terminal and no appetite for building one onshore, Golar is pretty much the only number to call. That's the logic behind the fourth unit Golar ordered in August, a $2.45 billion, 3.5 MTPA vessel from China's CIMC Raffles that should be ready around the end of 2029. Golar hasn't found a customer for it yet.

The company is betting that after watching a fifth of the world's LNG supply get trapped behind Hormuz, somebody is going to want floating capacity in a hurry, and it's pitching this vessel as the earliest available anywhere. Commodity-linked fees have already been paying off, as Hilli's contract is partly tied to Brent and Dutch TTF prices, and that piece brought in $37 million in the second quarter, more than triple the first quarter's take. The timing could have been better, though.

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Kaynaklar

• OilPrice.com