Hormuz Boğazı yakınlarındaki tanker sıkışıklığı, küresel petrol taşıma maliyetlerini hızla yükseltiyor

Kısaca

Olay ve rakamlar: Geniş tanker talebi, dünya filosunun büyük kısmı Hormuz yakınlarında. Arka plan: Bölgedeki riskler nedeniyle taşıma maliyetleri artıyor ve operasyonel verimlilik azalıyor. Piyasa sonucu: Navlun ücretleri yükselebilir; enerji fiyatları ve küresel ticaret etkilenebilir; izlenecek nokta: maliyet baskısı nerelere yayılarak etkisini gösteriyor.

Ana mesele

Hormuz yakınlarındaki tanker sıkışıklığı, taşıma maliyetlerini belirgin şekilde artırıyor

Ne değişti?

Boş VLCC’lerin azalması, maliyet artışını destekleyen yeni bir unsur olarak öne çıkıyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji maliyetlerinde artış eğilimi, yatırım kararlarını ve navlun ücretlerini etkileyebilir

Ne oldu?

Süpertankerlere yönelik talep artışı ve Hormuz çevresindeki yoğunluk, filo redistributeini tetikledi.

Neden şimdi?

Son dönemde bölgedeki riskler ve shuttling nedeniyle boş tankerlerin azalması.

Neden önemli?

Uluslararası enerji tedarikinin maliyeti ve güvenilirliği üzerinde doğrudan baskı oluşturur.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Küresel enerji tedarik zincirindeki şirketler
• Kovid sonrası toparlanan navlun piyasasında payı olan lojistik oyuncuları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Küresel taşıma maliyetleri ve enerji fiyatları üzerinde baskı potansiyeli

Riskler

• Kısa vadede navlun artışı devam edebilir
• Uzun vadede alternatif güzergah ve kapasite sorunu kalıcı hale gelebilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Nöbetçi navlun endeksleri ve filoya ilişkin veri güncellemeleri
• Hormuz ve Oman Körfezi bölgesindeki yeni transshipment noktalarının etkisi

Haberin tamamı

<p>Supertankers are racing to the Middle East to cash in on soaring fees for carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating a global shortage of vessels that has spiked freight rates. </p> <p>Crude flows through the waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to international markets, have recovered to near pre-war levels in recent weeks despite continued attacks on ships.

But the<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/getting-oil-and-gas-through-hormuz-strait-is-dangerous-job-for-ship-captains" target="_blank"> perils of the trade</a> have prompted tanker fees to skyrocket: Moving oil from the gulf to East Asia costs more than six times as much as it did prior to the conflict.</p> <p>More than 40% of the world’s fleet of about 850 very large crude carriers are now either in the Persian Gulf or within a couple of days sailing time from it, according to Signal Ocean, a shipping data provider.</p> <p>The concentration of vessels in the area is being exacerbated by the so-called shuttling trade where crude is transferred to other ships — which aren’t willing to take the risk of crossing Hormuz — in the Gulf of Oman or at new <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/tanker-congestion-shunts-vital-oil-transfers-farther-from-hormuz" target="_blank">transshipment points</a>, such as off the west coast of India.</p> <p>“The recent months have been the best of all time for crude tankers,” said Georgios Sakellariou, a freight analyst at <a href="https://www.thesignalgroup.com/signal-ocean/signal-ocean-platform" target="_blank">Signal Ocean</a>.

“The major issue is that the ship-to-ship system outside Hormuz is inefficient and that’s really stretching vessel supply there and elsewhere.”</p> <p>The number of empty VLCCs heading to Atlantic Ocean ports has halved from a month ago, the Signal Ocean data show.

The dearth of supertankers is also changing the composition of the oil fleet elsewhere, driving an increase in the amount of smaller vessels that don’t benefit from economies of scale like the larger carriers do.</p> <p>Meanwhile, crude producers outside of the Middle East — particularly in the Americas - are still maintaining high levels of output, even as flows from the Persian Gulf rebound.

All of this is rippling through oil freight markets worldwide, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-10/surging-tanker-rates-signal-a-deepening-global-energy-crisis" target="_blank">supercharging </a>already elevated fees.</p><div id='newsArticleDianomoAds' style='display:none'><hr style='margin:5px 0px;'><div style='color:#808080;text-align: center;'>Advertisement - Scroll to continue</div><div class='dianomi_context' data-dianomi-context-id='4460'></div></div> <p>At least one VLCC was offered this week to sail from the US Gulf to Japan at a potential record fee of $82 million, or more than $40 a barrel.

That’s a 50%-plus increase on the route from just <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-19/world-running-short-of-supertankers-threatens-long-haul-oil-flow" target="_blank">three weeks ago</a>.</p> <p>For the Persian Gulf to East Asia journey, which takes about three weeks, assessed supertanker rates reached an all-time high of nearly $1.4 million per day on Wednesday.

That’s a surge of almost 540% since before the war, compared with an increase of about 40% in Brent oil over the period.</p> <p>The scarcity and sky-high fees for supertankers have prompted a switch to smaller Suezmax and Aframax vessels for non-Middle Eastern routes.

So far, most of the deals to carry US oil loading in November to Asia involve these ships, driving up those costs in turn.</p> <p>“The VLCC’s smaller sisters, Suez- and Aframaxes, are showing no sign of slowing down either, so there’s really nowhere to hide right now,” shipbroker <a href="https://fearnleys.com/" target="_blank">Fearnleys</a> said in a note on Monday.</p>

Kaynaklar

• Rigzone