Piyasalar

Hurmuz Boğazı’ndan Akışlar Savaş Öncesi Seviyelere Yaklaşıyor: Küresel Petrol Piyasalarında Yeni Denge

30 Eylül 2026 23:35

Kısaca

Piyasalar, Hormuz Boğazı üzerinden akışların savaş öncesi seviyelere yakınlaştığını raporluyor; Brent yakın zamanda 98 doların üzerinde işlem gördü. Saudi Arabistan’ın kırmızı denizindeki limanlardan yaptığı sevkiyat ve Kpler verileri bu yönde destek sağlıyor; bazı bankalar akışların günlük 23 milyon varil civarında olduğunu belirtiyor. Piyasalar bazı bölgelerde fiyat kırılımı ve yük taşıma maliyetlerinde yumuşama bekliyor; bu, küresel enflasyon baskıları üzerinde etkili olabilir.

Ana mesele

Küresel petrol akışları savaş öncesi seviyelere yaklaşırken likidite ve fiyatlarda dengenin değişmesi

Ne değişti?

Savaş öncesi seviyelere yaklaşan akışların piyasalarda yeni denge arayışını tetiklemesi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Enerji maliyetleri ve enflasyon baskıları üzerinde etkili olabilir

Ne oldu?

Hurmuz ve diğer güzergahlardan gelen büyük hacimli petrol akışları savaş öncesi seviyelere yaklaşır durumda.

Neden şimdi?

Suudi Arabistan’ın sevkiyatı artırması ve Hormuz’a yönelik taşıma hareketlerinin yoğunlaşması nedeniyle akışlar hızlandı.

Neden önemli?

Arz artışı fiyat oynaklığını azaltabilir ve enerji maliyetlerini etkileyeceği için piyasa ve tüketici üzerinde etkili olur.

Kimler etkileniyor?

Enerji şirketleri ve rafineriler
Taşımacılık ve lojistik operatörleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji ve finansal piyasalarda volatilite azalabilir; bazı hisseler olumlu yönde etkilenebilir.

Riskler

Diplomatik gerilimler yeniden akışı bozabilir
Güvenlik olayları arzı tekrar kısıtlayabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

Gulf bölgesi sevkiyatı rakamları
Brent ve WTI spot fiyat hareketleri
Kpler ve tanker görünümü verileri

Haberin tamamı

Wall Street analysts and traders said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were closing in on pre-war levels, adding much-needed supply to a global market where crude swings around $100 a barrel. Brent futures for December settled above $98 on Wednesday, while the expiring November contract exceeded $103. While that's far below the peak of the Iran conflict, it's higher than prices averaged over the summer. Two of the biggest banks, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said they saw Middle East flows nearing pre-war levels after Saudi Arabia ramped up shipments along a vital pipeline that exports barrels from its Red Sea ports in recent days.

That's supported by data from analytics firm Kpler, and traders and shipowners privately said they're seeing large volumes of oil hitting the market from Hormuz. Working out what Gulf producers are sending to the market has been complicated by the Iran war, including attacks on merchant vessels as well as strikes by Tehran-aligned militants on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.

Goldman estimates about 23 million barrels a day of oil left the Middle East in the last week - both out of Hormuz and through other export routes like the Red Sea. That's in line with last year's average. Much of the flows are taking place without ships' satellite transponders on, meaning market watchers are tracking everything from satellite images of tanker berths to vessels waiting outside Hormuz to pick up cargoes that will be ferried to them by ships from inside the strait.

Goldman's estimate includes a 5 million barrel-a-day expected revision once more shipments are captured. While Brent futures surged this month, topping out near $110 but with real-world prices far in excess of that, there are signs that some markets are starting to cool.

The nearest timespread for West Texas Intermediate - a gauge of supply tightness - has more than halved over the last few days, while freight markets have eased slightly, though they remain historically high. "We are seeing an accelerated bearish shift" as more supplies have hit the market, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.

However, he said it's "still far too early to call off the crisis." There are also still significant risks to prices. Months of on-again, off-again negotiations to end the Iran war, launched by the US and Israel in February, have left oil futures prone to large swings, making it harder for traders to position for big moves.

There have also been significant shortages in fuel markets that are bolstering crude demand as refineries try to churn out as many barrels as they can. US oil inventory data published Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration didn't help that picture. Distillate stockpiles are at their lowest seasonal level ever, according to the agency, amid speculation over whether the White House will pursue an outright ban on diesel exports.

Gasoline inventories in the US Midwest are at also the smallest level on record. "Lower refining activity ushered in draws for both distillates and gasoline," said Matt Smith, Americas lead oil analyst at market intelligence firm Kpler.

Refining activity should climb going forward, preventing product inventories from dropping further, he added. The 10-day average of crude exports from the Middle East has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan analysts said. Part of the surge in estimates is due to the amount of ships seen at Saudi Arabian ports over recent weeks. The kingdom has ramped up flows along its East-West pipeline to half of total capacity over recent days, and earlier this month was loading bumper volumes from inside Hormuz.

Aramco has sold millions of barrels to Asian refiners on a so-called spot basis for shipment through the waterway. Still, it's unclear how sustainable the increase in flows through the strait may be, said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Global Research. "Is it related to the ongoing US-Iran negations?

Or maybe the US has finally been able to wrestle control away of the strait from Iran, in which case I think we can expect flows to continue at a higher rate," he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Meanwhile, attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz continue.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations said three tankers were reported to have been struck in the critical waterway on Tuesday. There are also renewed efforts to tame prices outside of Hormuz. The US offered a tranche of up to 40 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserve on Tuesday, the final such release as part of a plan agreed with the International Energy Agency earlier in the year.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright took a swipe at European nations for not doing similar. "Several European member countries have released only a fraction of the crude oil and petroleum products they pledged," Wright said. "We urge every member country to fulfill its commitments." That comes as diesel prices soar across the world. Retail prices earlier this month topped $6.50 a gallon in the US, according to the American Automobile Association, the highest on record.

On Wednesday, Russia extended its ban on most diesel exports through October as Ukrainian strikes against its refineries hamper oil processing. Oil Prices <ul> <li>Brent for December settlement, the most-active contract, rose 1.9% to settle at $98.03 a barrel in New York.

<ul> <li>Brent for November, which expires Wednesday, added 0.9% to $103.53 a barrel.</li> </ul> </li> <li>WTI for November delivery advanced 1.2% to settle at $90.42 a barrel. </li> </ul>

Kaynaklar

Rigzone

Hurmuz Boğazı’ndan Akışlar Savaş Öncesi Seviyelere Yaklaşıyor: Küresel Petrol Piyasalarında Yeni Denge · Mercek akışına dön