Japon Yeni haftalık düşüşe doğru ilerliyor; yüksek ABD getirileri USD’yi iki aylık zirveye taşıyor

Kısaca

Olay: USD/JPY, haftalık zirveye yakın hareketler kaydediyor; ABD getirileri yüksek seyrini sürdürüyor. Arka plan: PCE verisinin Fed için ara yönlendirme etkileri ve petrol kaynaklı enflasyon riskleri ABD getirilerini destekliyor. Sonuç ve izlenecek nokta: Piyasalarda volatilite sürebilir; BoJ olası adımlar ve Fed kararları yakından izlenecek.

Ana mesele

Japon Yeni, yükselen ABD getirileri karşısında zayıflıyor.

Ne değişti?

BoJ politikasında bir değişiklik olasılığı yeni baskılar doğurabilir.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucular için kısa vadeli volatilite ve döviz riski artabilir.

Ne oldu?

USD/JPY, 158.00 sınırını aşabilir göstergeyle yükselişe devam etti.

Neden şimdi?

ABD getirilerinin yüksek kalması USD değerini destekliyor; BoJ politika tartışmaları baskı oluşturuyor.

Neden önemli?

Japonya para politikası ve ABD ekonomi verileri küresel döviz akımlarını etkiliyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• yurtiçi yatırımcılar
• uluslararası hedgeleme yapan kurumlar
• ihracat odaklı firmalar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz kurları baskısı nedeniyle Türk Lirası karşısında dalgalanma potansiyeli artabilir; ithal enflasyonu etkileyebilir.

Riskler

• kısa vadeli dolar/yen volatilitesi
• Fed kararları beklenenden hızlı gelecek olası yön değişiklikleri

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• BoJ’in ilerleyen zaman diliminde yapacağı açıklamalar
• Fed’in gelecek hafta sunacağı bilanço ve faiz mesajları

Haberin tamamı

USD/JPY attracts some follow-through buyers during the Asian session amid a bullish USD.Oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated and continue to underpin the buck.Intervention fears and BoJ rate hike bets could support the JPY and cap gains for the pair.The USD/JPY pair builds on the previous day's bounce from the 156.40-156.35 region, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and gains strong follow-through traction during the Asian session on Thursday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh weekly high, beyond the 158.00 mark, and is sponsored by the prevailing strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).The softer-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for August, released on Wednesday, tempered market bets for an October Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. The initial market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived in the wake of an upward revision of the US Q2 GDP growth figures. Adding to this, oil-driven inflation risks keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year peaks, lifting the USD to a fresh high since July 28 and providing a goodish lift to the USD/JPY pair.Apart from this, geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven buck. In fact, US President Donald Trump had turned down a seven-day ceasefire proposal from Iran. Moreover, US officials believe that Trump could order a return to major combat after the November midterm elections. In further developments, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Iranian delegation to immediately leave the country after peace talks stalled.Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert as authorities have intensified verbal interventions to signal Tokyo's strong determination to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). In fact, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned markets to take joint US-Japan messaging on FX depreciation seriously. Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike again as soon as October or December could limit JPY losses and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair.Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. This, along with speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members and the incoming geopolitical headlines, will drive the USD. The focus, however, will remain glued to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's policy path and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair has been showing some resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, though it remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the key 61.8% Fibo. retracement confluence near the 159.55-159.75 area. Spot prices approach the 50.0% retracement at 158.45, which acts as the first topside pivot. A failure to reclaim this level keeps the pair capped within a corrective phase against the recent advance.On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 157.14, ahead of a deeper floor at the 23.6% retracement near 155.51. A sustained break below these levels would expose the structural anchor of the current cycle around 152.88. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet