Jeopolitik gerilimler ve petrol rallisi USD/CHF’yi güçlendirdi; Brent, risk iştahını baskılıyor

Kısaca

USD/CHF 0,8325’e çıktı; petrol Brent 103,50$ civarında Orta Doğu gerilimleri ve Rusya- Ukrayna enerji baskısı risk iştahını zayıflattı Piyasalarda 1–3 hafta aralığına giren bantta hareket bekleniyor

Ana mesele

Jeopolitik riskler altında güvenli liman olarak görülen CHF’nin güç kaybı ve doların güçlenmesi

Ne değişti?

Piyasalarda USD/CHF’nin 0,8325’e yükselişi ve Brent’in 103,50$ civarında seyri, enerji gerilimlerinin etkisini yeniden pekiştirdi

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya güvenli liman ve enerji maliyetlerindeki dalgalanmaları takip etmeleri gerektiğini hatırlatır

Ne oldu?

USD/CHF 0,8325’e çıktı; Brent petrol 103,50$ civarında hareket etti.

Neden şimdi?

Orta Doğu’daki gerilimler ve Rusya’nın enerji tesislerine karşı saldırılarının etkisiyle risk iştahı zayıflıyor.

Neden önemli?

Güvenli liman talebi ve enerji maliyetleri döviz ve sınırlı risk iştahı üzerinde belirleyici oluyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Piyasa oyuncuları ve döviz portföyleri
• Enerji ithalatçı şirketler
• Küresel finansal piyasalar
• Türkiye’de enerji maliyetlerinden etkilenen sektörler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Döviz ve enerji piyasalarında volatilite artıyor; güvenli liman talebi etkileniyor

Riskler

• Jeopolitik risklerin tansiyonu yüksek kalması
• Enerji fiyatlarındaki yükselişin enflasyon baskısını güçlendirmesi
• Küresel ekonomik aktivitenin yavaşlaması

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• USD/CHF bant hareketi 0,8245–0,8365 aralığında mı kalacak
• Brent petrolün 103,50$ civarında seyri
• Orta Doğu gelişmelerinin risk iştahına etkisi
• Küresel enerji arzı ve talep göstergeleri

Haberin tamamı

USD/CHF rallies to 0.8325 after bouncing from session lows near 0.8290.Oil prices have bounced up amid reports of escalating tensions in the Middle East.Attacks from Russia on Ukrainian power plants are casting a shadow on the fate of the energy ceasefire announced by Trump.The Swiss Franc (CHF) has turned lower on Monday and is retracing gains from the previous two trading days against the US Dollar, as tensions in the Middle East and a highly likely failure of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal are dampening risk appetite. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.8325 after bouncing from lows near 0.8290, approaching one-week highs, at the 0.8345 area.Investors are wary of risk in a calm European trading session, which is providing some support to the US Dollar, although most USD crosses are trading within previous ranges, with trading volumes subdued amid a bank holiday in Japan and with US markets at half throttle due to the Columbus Day holiday.Rising geopolitical tensions put a floor on Oil pricesIn the absence of first-tier macroeconomic releases, gloomy news from the Middle East is driving markets and providing support to the safe-haven USD. The Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport on Sunday, killing one person and injuring 11, after an alleged attack by Saudi forces on the Houthi-held airport of Sanaa in Yemen’s capital.Meanwhile, news that Russia has attacked several power plants in Ukraine casts further doubts about a questionable energy ceasefire “agreement” announced by US President Donald Trump a few hours before. Brent Oil, which fell to a $100.66 low at the early Asian session, has retraced losses and returned to the $103.50 area, adding pressure on Oil-importing economies like Switzerland’s and dampening investors’ appetite for risk.Looking ahead, Strategists at UOB Group maintain a steady medium-term stance on USD/CHF, reiterating assessing that the USD/CHF pair “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365,” adding that they expect the pair to remain confined within this established consolidation band over the next 1–3 weeks.

What key factors drive the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc?

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc?

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Kaynaklar

• FXStreet