Kamuoyu ve yatırımcılar için kazanç sezonu kilit; şirketler şimdi sonuçları netleştirmek zorunda

Kısaca

Çeyrek kazanç sezonuna beklenen olumlu yönelim; bazı S&P şirketleri toparlama işaretleri veriyor Piyasalarda son dönemde petrol fiyatları yüksek, borçlanma maliyetleri ve tüketici güveni kırılgan Gözler yeni veriler ve yönetişim sinyallerine çevrildi; izlenecek ana noktalar piyasaları yönlendirecek

Ana mesele

Şirketler kazanç sezonundan güçlü sonuçlar bekliyor; yatırımcı güveni bu sonuçlara bağlı olarak büyüyebilir

Ne değişti?

Piyasalar kazanç sezonu öncesi hafif yatay, ancak sonuçlar belirsizlikleri değiştirebilir

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya maliyet ve yatırım kararlarında yön değiştirme ihtiyacı doğabilir

Ne oldu?

Yatırımcılar güçlü kazanç sezonu beklentisiyle hareket etti; Dow 0,8%, S&P 0,6%, Nasdaq 0,6% yükseldi

Neden şimdi?

Piyasa temellerinin güçlenmesi için kazanç sezonunun başlaması kritik; ayrıca güncel ekonomik göstergelerde belirsizlik sürüyor

Neden önemli?

Şirket sonuçları güven temeli oluşturarak yatırım kararlarını belirleyecek

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kurumsal müşteriler
• Piyasa hissedarları
• Konut ve tüketici kredisi tarafı

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji ve iletişim dışındaki sektörlerde kısmi destek görüldü; genel piyasada karışık tablo sürüyor

Riskler

• Kazançlar beklentileri karşılamazsa satış baskısı güçlenebilir
• Enflasyon ve borçlanma maliyetlerindeki değişim sonuçları bozabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Kazanç raporlarındaki net kârlılık ve gelir büyümesi
• Gelecek dönem rehberliği ve temettü politikaları
• Makro verilerdeki sürprizler ve piyasa tepkisi

Haberin tamamı

Investors are betting on earnings…Now corporate America has to deliver.It’s a big economic week – CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Cap Utilization Manufacturing Production and Existing Home Sales.Earnings begin tomorrow and they are expected to be good.Try the Cavatappi.This week is the 14th annual Headstrong Project (theheadstrongproject.org) Gala in NYC.

We hope to raise more than $6 million to treat our veterans that suffer from the hidden wounds of war – PTSD.This year’s theme is “The Promises We Keep.”Stocks advanced on Friday as investors decided that a strong earnings season could keep this party going—even as oil remains elevated, borrowing costs are high and consumers sentiment continues to get uglier and uglier. Friday’s sentiment number came in at 46.3 – below the already weak estimate of 47.6.

The report also showed views of current economic conditions hitting an all-time low.But buyers stepped in, most S&P names advanced, leaving us within striking distance of its closing record at 7,818.Recall, the broader market has been under pressure…more than 50% of the S&P companies were trading below their long term trendlines – putting many of them in their correction zone… (down more than 10%) while some were even in the bear market zone (down more than 20%) …So, while it appears as if the S&P had only backed off by 3% (the Aug/Sept drawdown), the Equal Weight S&P (which gives every company the same influence) had declined by nearly 7% (Aug – early October drawdown).And what that means – is there are a fair number of names that have been repriced offering opportunities for longer term buyers…..and as long as their investment thesis remains intact – then the lower price deserves a look.At the end of the day—the Dow gained 423 pts, or 0.8%, the S&P added 46 pts, or 0.6%, the Nasdaq gained 173 pts, or 0.6%, while the Russell added 13 pts, or 0.5%, the Transports lost 5 points or 0.02%, the Equal Weight S&P gained 45 pts or 0.5% while the Mag 7 added 336 pts or 0.9%.For the week, the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Equal Weight and Mag 7 indexes all gained, while the Russell and Transports lost ground.Of the 11 S&P sectors – Energy lost 0.25% while Communications lost 1.5%.

Leaving us to ask - what happened to Communications – Telecom stocks – think the wireless carriers - got crushed after SpaceX announced Thursday that it had agreed to buy Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses for a reported $8 billion.OK – so what?

Well, strap in – because Elon is about to disrupt the wireless/telecom industry (and we can see how this is gonna play out…..!) The purchase will help build Starlink Mobile into a nationwide competitor by combining ground-based coverage with his satellites to create another nationwide wireless competitor…Now, before anyone goes screaming about Musk, this deal STILL needs FCC approval, and building the network will take time and money, but investors weren’t waiting around – they sold the wireless names – sending AT&T, -10%, Verizon down 9% and T-Mobile down 13% and they bought SPCX up 1.7% to close at $167.57 and tower stocks rallied – AMT +9.3% and CCI +15% because the ground network needs infrastructure to operate….and so UP they went.Other sectors that found all kinds of love – Disruptive Tech +2.5%, Cyber up 3.6%, Software up 2.8%, Aerospace & Defense + 0.9%, Quantum names + 0.8%, Memory names + 0.5%, Metals & Miners up 1.7%, Big Pharma + 1.2%.Chipmakers were weak- the SOXX lost 0.7% as questions about AI revenue and financing continued to hang over the group and with earnings just around the corner investors want evidence that the spending will produce the expected returns.ASML (the Dutch giant) reports on 10/14, AMD reports 11/3, INTC 10/29, AVGO 12/11, NVDA 11/19, KLA 10/28, MRVL 12/2…..Meanwhile, the bond market continues to demand attention.Both the TLT and TLH ended the day higher – up 0.15% and 0.1% respectively.

The 2-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.80%, up 5 bps, the 10-year rose 2 bps to 5.24%, while the 30-year stood at 5.60%. This morning treasuries are flat because the bond market is closed (it’s Columbus Day).And oil isn’t helping either. WTI rose 36 cts on Friday to settle at $91.85, while Brent added 44 cts to end at $104.72.

Optimism about a diplomatic solution with Iran and the prospect of more Russian diesel reaching global markets did offer some potential relief but then renewed supply concern hit markets as US producers shut production ahead of Hurricane Isaias halting (temporarily) 1.5 million bpd.Then came the weekend. Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh - claimed by the Iranian-backed Houthis - caused casualties and disrupted air travel.

That only adds another layer of uncertainty as we head into the new trading week – think potential retaliation, transportation disruptions and the threat to energy infrastructure…all reasons for traders and the markets to remain cautious about supply.For markets, the question is whether this escalation threatens production or the supply of oil.

This morning oil is trading down 50 cts at $91.39 and remains in the $87.60/$100 trading range and at these prices – do not expect to get any relief at the pump yet. This morning – we are learning that there is a supposed agreement between Russia and Ukraine on an energy ceasefire and a Russian diesel agreement. …that headline is still developing…. Zelensky says ‘that’s news to me!’ Trump says ‘its time for Zelensky to go’….

Oh boy……Gold found buyers on Friday, rising about 1.5% or $60 to $4,193/oz. The move appeared to be a direct result of Russia agreeing to release more diesel to help ease the global supply issue. And do not forget - Gold – like many stocks is down more than 20% off its high - putting it in a true bear market – it seems to have found support at $4,000 and so I think the buying in Gold (like stocks) was ‘opportunistic’…. This morning – gold is trading down $18 at $4,176.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet