Kargo ve tanker sektöründe nominal kazançlar yükselirken enflasyonla gerçek getiriler sınırlı kalıyor

Kısaca

ClarkSea Endeksi 66.421 dolar/gün ile tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesini gördü; bu, üç gün üst üste rekor anlamına geliyor. Affinity’nin yıllık analizleri enflasyonla düzelttiğinde 1970’ler, 2000’ler ve 2020’lerin reel getirilerini karşılaştırıyor; 2020’ler yaklaşık 30.000 dolar civarında kalıyor. Nominal olarak 2020’ler güçlü görünse de reel bazda 1970’ler ve 2000’ler sonrasındaki desenler dikkat çekiyor; bu, piyasalarda yeni paradigmaya karşı temkinli yaklaşımı tetikliyor.

Ana mesele

Kısa vadede nominal kazançlar yüksek görünüyor; enflasyon etkisiyle gerçek getiriler sınırlı kalıyor.

Ne değişti?

Enflasyon göz önüne alındığında 2020’ler, 1970’lere göre gerçek kazançlarda daha düşük seviyelerde değerlendiriliyor.

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırım kararları ve sektör karşılaştırmaları için uzun vadeli görünüm değişebilir.

Ne oldu?

ClarkSea Endeksi haftalık olarak yeni bir zirve kaydetti (66.421 dolar/gün).

Neden şimdi?

Enflasyonun etkisi, nominal kazançları artırırken reel getirileri sınırlıyor.

Neden önemli?

Küresel nakliye ve lojistik maliyetlerin karşılaştırılması ve yatırım kararları üzerinde etkili oluyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• lojistik operatörleri
• finansal analiz yapan kurumlar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Reel getirilerin farklılaşması, bazı sektörler için daha ılımlı kazançlar öne çıkarabilir.

Riskler

• enflasyon dalgalanmaları
• faiz oranı değişimleri
• tüketici talebindeki belirsizlik

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• enflasyon eğilimleri
• yeniden yapılanma ve yatırım akışları
• kullanılan navlun kontratlarının maliyet etkileri
• küresel ticaret hacmi göstergeleri

Haberin tamamı

Shipping may be breaking nominal earnings records almost by the week, but a new long-range analysis from Affinity Shipping suggests the industry still has some way to go before it can claim to be living through the greatest boom in its history.

Clarksons’ cross-sector ClarkSea Index reached another all-time high of $66,421 a day last week, its third consecutive record, more than 30% above the previous peak of $50,714 recorded in December 2007. The index, founded in 1990, is now close to three times its long-term average, with tankers providing the biggest propulsion but gas carriers, bulkers, containerships and car carriers also contributing.

Affinity, however, has gone much further back. Its analysis of average daily earnings across a basket of conventional shipping sectors by decade, stretching back to the 1970s, shows that the current boom looks rather different once inflation is taken into account.

In nominal terms the 2020s are comfortably the strongest decade Affinity has recorded, averaging around $28,000 a day so far. In 2026 dollars, though, the current decade ranks only third.

Affinity calculates average real earnings during the legendary 1970s at around $55,000 a day, with the 2000s coming in at roughly $38,000. The 2020s, despite the extraordinary markets seen since covid, sit at only a little above $30,000 in inflation-adjusted terms.

Splash reported earlier this month that shipping economist Martin Stopford estimates the industry has generated approximately $3.1trn in cash since 2021, more than during the famous 2004-08 supercycle. Yet the industry itself is far larger today, while inflation dramatically changes comparisons of individual vessel earnings across half a century.

There is another historical warning embedded in Affinity’s chart: spectacular decades have tended to be followed by ugly ones.

The extraordinary 1970s gave way to real average earnings of about $27,000 a day in the 1980s, while the 2000s boom was followed by the 2010s, the weakest decade of the six analysed, at approximately $17,000.

“If anyone mentions a new paradigm, kick them out of your office and burn their business card,” Affinity cautioned.

There are nevertheless important differences between today and 2008. The current boom has been rolling rather than simultaneous. Containers surged first, followed by car carriers, gas shipping and product tankers; crude tankers are now producing the most spectacular numbers. Much of the prosperity has also been generated not by runaway underlying trade growth but by inefficiency: covid, sanctions, Ukraine, Red Sea diversions and, most recently, Hormuz.

Analysing today’s boom, rival broker Hartland stressed in a new report that it was supply-driven rather than the usual demand-led boom.

“Ships are being forced onto much longer voyages to avoid various conflict zones,” Hartland noted, mentioning talk in the markets of four resale VLCCs rumoured to have sold for a record $250m each.

Also looking at today’s cycle versus previous ones, ordering has yet to reach past extremes. Affinity puts the global orderbook at around 22% of the existing fleet, versus 55% in 2008. The tanker orderbook stands at 26.5%, compared with 51.8% around the turn of 2007 — and an extraordinary 104.5% in 1971.

Today’s shipping market is therefore unquestionably historic. But viewed through half a century of inflation, ordering cycles and subsequent busts, it is not yet without precedent.

“[E]ven as we bask in the extraordinary freight markets of the last five years, it’s arguable that we’re not at peak shipping,” Affinity researchers argued.

The Affinity research also shows how today’s newbuild prices compare to past cycles when inflation is taken into account.

Kaynaklar

• Splash247 (Shipping/Maritime)