Kârlar güçlenirken piyasa için yükseliş senaryosu: S&P 500’in 3. çeyrek için pozitif görünümü

Kısaca

Üçüncü çeyrek için kâr büyümesi yüzde 24,6 artış öngörülüyor; gelirler yüzde 11,6 artış bekleniyor. Kapsamlı iyileşme, özellikle Finans ve Teknoloji sektörlerinde belirginleşiyor; 8 sektörde iyileşme öngörülüyor. Bu olumlu görünüm, hisse senedi talebinin ve kurumsal revizyonların güçlenmesini destekliyor; yatırımcılar temkinli amapozitif趋势 izliyor

Ana mesele

Üçüncü çeyrekte güçlü kârlar ve büyüyen kâr göstergeleri, piyasalarda yükseliş baskısını güçlendiriyor

Ne değişti?

S&P 500 kazançları yıllık yüzde 24,6 artış öngörülüyor ve 8 sektörde iyileşme bekleniyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Yatırımcılar, ileri aşamada kâr büyümesi ve yönlendirmeler nedeniyle portföylerini yeniden dengeleyebilir

Ne oldu?

Üçüncü çeyrek itibarıyla kâr büyümesi ve gelirlerde olumlu ivme bekleniyor; özellikle teknoloji ve enerji sektörlerinde revizyonlar güçlü görülüyor.

Neden şimdi?

Küresel faiz politikaları ve iş gücü verilerinin etkisiyle piyasalarda güven yaratıcı veriler öne çıkıyor.

Neden önemli?

Şirket kârlarındaki güç, yatırımcı güvenini ve piyasa değerlemelerini olumlu yönde etkiliyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kurumsal yöneticiler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Teknoloji ve Finans sektörleri öncü rol oynamaya devam ederken genel piyasa üzerinde yukarı yönlü baskı güçleniyor

Riskler

• Girdi maliyetleri baskısı
• küresel jeopolitik riskler
• faiz farkları nedeniyle volatilite artışı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• 3. Çeyrek raporları akışı
• revizyon eğilimlerinin nasıl şekilleneceği
• Fed kararları ve kısa vadeli borçlanma maliyetleri

Haberin tamamı

Key takeawaysThe Q3 earnings season heats up notably when the big banks start reporting on October 13th.The picture heading into the Q3 cycle remains bullish, with expectations for Q4 similarly showing strength.S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 24.6% YoY on 11.6% higher revenues.The market’s positive reaction to Friday’s soft labor market readings is solely through the Fed prism, as it reduces the odds of another rate hike at the central bank’s meeting in late October.

A moderating macroeconomic backdrop would typically be expected to have negative implications for corporate profitability as well. But market participants are justifiably sanguine on that count given how strong the corporate earnings picture continues to be.The overall setup remains extremely favorable as the Q3 earnings season takes center stage when the big banks start reporting on October 13th.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by +24.6% from the same period last year, the 8th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.The Tech sector remains a major growth contributor, but momentum is broad-based, with 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track for positive earnings growth in Q3.

Importantly, the revisions trend remains positive and broad-based, highlighting a steadily improving outlook.The quarterly chart below details actual results alongside Q3 2026 growth expectations and forward projections.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAs noted earlier, the revisions trend has been positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year.

The chart below shows how 2026 Q3 earnings growth expectations have evolved lately.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis positive revisions behavior is not a new development; they extend a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year. The positive revisions were at first concentrated in Technology and, more recently, Energy following Middle East supply disruptions.

However, for Q3 2026, the constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 8 of the 16 Zacks sectors—including Transportation, Finance, Aerospace, Industrials, Utilities, and Autos alongside Tech and Energy.On the negative side, Q3 estimates have been under pressure for these 8 sectors since the quarter got underway – Conglomerates, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Medical, Business Services, Retail, and Construction.It is important to note that estimates for 2026 Q4 and full-year 2027 have also been trending higher lately, as we show below.For 2026 Q4, the expectation is that S&P 500 earnings will grow by +27% from the same period last year on +11.8% higher revenues, with estimates for the period steadily moving higher in recent weeks, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchSector focus: Broad-based strengthQ3 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 6 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth.

The multi-industry Conglomerates sector is the only one expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year (earnings decline of–31.3%).The 6 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q3 are Aerospace (up +159.7%), Energy (+114.3%), Tech (+43.3%), Basic Materials (+29.5%), Transportation (+14.4%) and Industrial Products (+13.2%).Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index drops to +20.5% from +24.6% once the Energy sector’s contribution is excluded from the index.

Excluding the Tech sector, Q3 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.6%.The chart below shows the Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the Tech sector relative to what we saw from the sector in the preceding two periods and what is expected in the following three quarters.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNvidia (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report) , Micron (MU Quick QuoteMU - Free Report) and Alphabet (GOOGL Quick QuoteGOOGL - Free Report) have been enjoying a record earnings run in recent quarters, and that performance continues in Q3 as well.Nvidia’s Q3 earnings are expected to increase +90% year-over-year on +91.2% higher revenues, while Alphabet's earnings are expected to rise +2.8%, but the search giant posted an outsized earnings gain in the prior period.

Micron's earnings increased +1075.7% from the year-earlier level in its recent release.

Q3 earnings growth for the Tech sector drops to +20.5% once contributions from Nvidia, Micron, and Alphabet are excluded, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchQ3 earnings season scorecardThe Q3 earnings season will get the spotlight when the big banks report on October 13th, but the reporting cycle has already begun, as recent results from Nike (NKE Quick QuoteNKE - Free Report) , Micron (MU Quick QuoteMU - Free Report) , and others show.The Nike, Micron, and other such reports were for these companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August, which get counted as part of the September-quarter tally.

Including the Nike and Micron reports, we now have such Q3 results from 16 S&P 500 members.

We have 3 additional index members on deck to report their fiscal August-quarter results this week, including Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines, and Pepsi.Total Q3 earnings for the 16 S&P 500 members that have reported results already are up +188.3% from the same period last year on +31.7% higher revenues, with 81.3% beating EPS estimates and 75% beating revenue estimates.The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe very strong earnings and revenue growth pace for this group of 16 S&P 500 members is mostly due to Micron, whose Q3 earnings increased +1075.7% from the year-earlier level.

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet