Küresel arz riskleri enerji piyasalarında baskı oluşturmaya devam ediyor: Brent ve WTI için volatilite artıyor

Kısaca

Brent 106 doların üzerinde kapandı; WTI yüzde 1 yükseliş kaydetti Orta Doğu ve Karadeniz bölgelerindeki güçlenen gerilimler arz akışlarını bozuyor Piyasa oyuncuları, WTI ve Brent arasındaki farkı yeniden dengeleme eğiliminde; izlenecek noktalar: arz güvenliği ve lojistik maliyetler

Ana mesele

Küresel arz kaygıları enerji fiyatlarında baskı ve volatiliteyi artırıyor

Ne değişti?

Arz risklerinin artması, fiyatlar üzerinde baskıyı güçlendirdi; önceki seviyelerden uzaklaşan hareketler sürüyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucuya enerji maliyetlerinde değişkenlik ve risk yönetimi ihtiyacı hatırlatılır

Ne oldu?

Rusya ile Orta Doğu arasındaki düşmanlıklar arz akışlarını tehdit etti; Brent 106 doların üzerinde kapandı ve WTI yüzde 1 yükseldi

Neden şimdi?

Son günlerdeki entriklikler ve bölgesel gerginlikler arz güvenliğini zayıflattı

Neden önemli?

Enerji maliyetleri küresel enflasyonu etkileyebilir ve yatırım kararlarını değiştirebilir

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Enerji şirketleri
• Tüketici maliyeti
• Tedarik zinciri yöneticileri
• Finansal piyasa yatırımcıları

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Enerji ve finans piyasalarında oynaklık artıyor; rafineler için maliyet rekabeti değişebilir

Riskler

• Arz kesintileri sürebilir
• Lojistik maliyetler yükselebilir
• Fiyat belirsizliği artabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Arz güvenliğini artıracak adımlar
• Lojistik maliyetlerdeki değişim
• Brent ve WTI arasındaki fiyat farkı
• Jeopolitik gelişmelerin arz üzerindeki etkileri

Haberin tamamı

<p>Oil gained as hostilities intensified from Russia to the Middle East, threatening supply flows that only recently recovered to near pre-war levels.<br /> <br /> Brent settled above $106 a barrel after Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched missile and drone strikes across Saudi Arabia, including a hit that damaged Saudi Aramco's headquarters. That added to an escalation in Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz that's threatening a rebound in Gulf supply.

West Texas Intermediate closed 1% higher.<br /> <br /> The two benchmarks have fallen out of lockstep, in part because trend-following commodity trading advisers, which use computer models to bet on price moves, sold the US benchmark more than Brent last week and are now buying it back, said Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects Ltd.

That means CTAs have more runway to add to bullish bets on WTI compared to Brent.<br /> <br /> Beyond the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine traded tit-for-tat strikes on each other's energy infrastructure over the past day.

Prices for European diesel, of which Russia has historically been a major supplier, have already more than doubled this year.<br /> <br /> "Developments over the past week are yet another reminder that recovering flows are not the same as secure flows," said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Bank.

"With both infrastructure and shipping increasingly vulnerable, the risk premium is proving difficult to unwind."<br /> <br /> Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, have surged more than 70% this year as the US-Israeli war on Iran roils markets. Risks intensified after the Houthis attacked Riyadh's main airport and Saudi-backed forces launched a campaign to reclaim rebel-held territory in Yemen.

Ship strikes in Hormuz have also prompted more supertankers to turn away from the Persian Gulf, the latest episode of which entailed a targeted container ship sinking in the waterway.<br /> <br /> Meanwhile, the market for real-world barrels remains tight. With freight costs soaring, the Dated Brent benchmark in Europe was near $130 a barrel on Tuesday as European refiners compete for local supplies.

Shipping oil on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route is holding close to its highest level ever, with prices near $1.39 million a day.<br /> <br /> Still, a plateau in the rally for the US Gulf-to-China route has boosted demand for American barrels as overseas buyers seize a rare window of lower freight costs.

That added demand may be another reason WTI is outpacing Brent on Wednesday, according to traders familiar with the market.<br /> <br /> As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to hobble refinery capacity, the International Energy Agency warned that diesel and other fuels will remain under pressure next year as a result of conflicts, despite a weaker outlook for oil consumption.

The agency has urged its members to complete pledges to release emergency stockpiles.<br /> <br /> <strong><u>Oil Prices</u></strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>WTI for November delivery added 1% to settle at $95.09 a barrel in New York.</strong></li> <li><strong>Brent for December settlement gained 0.4% to settle at $106.06 a barrel.</strong><br /> </li> </ul>

Kaynaklar

• Rigzone