Nasdaq FUTs düşüşü ve OpenAI model eğitimi duraklatması piyasaları yönsüz bıraktı

Kısaca

Nasdaq FUTs düşüşü ve OpenAI model eğitimi duraklatmasıyla yön belirsizliği arttı ABD-Çin ilişkileri ve kömürün tarife planında öne çıkması piyasayı etkiledi Çin kömür FUTs düşüşü ve yuan güçlendirmesi tartışmaları sürüyor; izlenecek ek gelişmeler bekleniyor

Ana mesele

OpenAI model eğitiminin durdurulması piyasalarda yön belirsizliğine yol açtı

Ne değişti?

İlkIssue ile farklı olarak model eğitiminin durdurulması ve ABD-Çin ticaret gelişmeleri öne çıktı

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Okuyucu, yatırımdaki belirsizlik nedeniyle dikkatli olmaya çağrılır

Ne oldu?

OpenAI, yeni modellerin eğitiminin durdurulacağını açıkladı; Nasdaq FUTs açık piyasada aşağı yönlü hareketler kaydetti.

Neden şimdi?

ABD-İran çekişmesi ve teknoloji/piyasa haberleri ile eş zamanlı olarak gelişti; likidite ve beklentiler belirsizleşti.

Neden önemli?

Teknoloji ve enerji piyasaları üzerinde yön arayışı sürüyor; yatırımcı güveni geçen hafta açıklanan tarife ve ticaret haberleriyle etkileniyor.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kamu piyasası analistleri
• İşletme sermayesi yönetimi yapan firmalar
• Küresel yatırımcılar

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Teknoloji ve enerji hisseleri volatiliteye maruz kalabilir; özellikle kömür ve petrol ürünleriyle ilgili piyasalarda hareket görülebilir.

Riskler

• Piyasa oynaklığı artabilir
• Tarife politikaları belirsizliğini sürdürebilir
• Kısa vadeli likidite koşulları zayıflayabilir

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• OpenAI model eğitimi kararlarının amacı ve süresi
• ABD-Çin ticaret görüşmeleri ve tarife değişiklikleri
• Kömür ile ilgili piyasa hareketleri
• PBOC yuan politikasında değişiklikler

Haberin tamamı

Asia Market Update: Nasdaq FUTs drop amid OpenAI model training pause; Trump said to reject Iran ceasefire proposal leaving markets directionless; Oil FUTs rise; China to increase US coal imports, PBOC resumes Yuan strengthening; US diesel export ban speculation continues to mount.General trend and developments-Nasdaq FUTs underperform.

Over the weekend, OpenAI disclosed that it would pause training of its latest models after agents probed US government sites in unexpected ways.-Oil prices have opened the week higher, as the US/Iran stalemate continues. Trump is said to have rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal, according to a WSJ report released after Friday’s close. Even still, Trump has said he expects additional US/Iran talks this week.

Separately, over the weekend, an incident was declared at RAF Fairford, which is a UK military base that has been used by the US in its campaign against Iran.

Five men were, specifically, arrested on suspicion of Explosive Act offenses.-BOJ Jul minutes set up hawkish Sept Summary of Opinion release on Thurs [Oct 1st]; According to the minutes, one member—likely dissenting member Takata, who voted against the 8-1 decision to maintain the policy rate at 1.00%—stated markets appear to expect the BoJ to raise rates roughly once every six months, but the pace could be faster, warning that term premia could rise if markets became concerned that the BoJ was not raising rates at an appropriate pace; Former Bank of Japan (BOJ) Official Momma noted a BoJ rate hike in October is a real possibility; 2-year JGB yield rises by >2bps.-US and China confirmed last week’s trade developments.

The US/China agreement including the list of products recommended for reduced tariff treatments as well as a launched AI dialogue was released by the White House earlier today, the $30B vs. $30B two-way reciprocal tariff cut was agreed with coal being the standout in the tariff reduction plan. Rare earths, however, remains an area of uncertainty.

Chinese coal FUTs declined.-China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is said to have told certain Chinese companies that the government intends to approve the purchases of new Nvidia chips [RTX PRO 5500] by ByteDance, Alibaba; the article refers to the RTX PRO 5500 chips, according to the Information. Chinese chipmakers decline after Friday’s holiday.

Disappointment with last week's Trump/Xi summit has also been cited as being among the factors weighing on Mainland Chinese equities. Chinese mutual fund launches, meanwhile, said to 'stall' amid declining investor demand [Chinese press]. China’s CSI 300 telecom services index declined after US lawmakers introduced legislation to restrict Chinese AI components from sensitive government systems.

Zhongji Innolight [300308.CN] plummets by >8%.-Leading into China’s Golden Week holiday, scheduled for October 1st-7th, the PBOC set the yuan mid-point at 6.7399 v 6.7489 prior, the strongest fixing since February 3rd, 2023.-According to analysts at a large US bank, a US diesel export ban could hurt the, GBP, EUR and LATAM currencies.

Australia is, also, major in terms of diesel imports.-OIS continues to overwhelmingly favor a RBA rate hike on Tues with the probability at about 90%.-Elliott-backed Aussie gold miner Northern Star rejects >A$38.0B bid from South Africa’s Gold Fields.-Looking ahead this week (Asian-weighted focus, EST/EDT), key data releases include the US Q2 GDP followed by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge US August PCE & Core PCE on Wednesday September 30th, and the US September Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls & Average Hourly Earnings & Participation Rate on Friday October 2nd.

Ahead of this upcoming data, Fed Funds FUTs are currently pricing in a 65.9% probability of a +25bps rate hike to 4.00%-4.25%.-[Reminder] Over 1,400 Japanese firms trade ex-dividend on Sept 29th [Tues].

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Kaynaklar

• FXStreet