On yıllık Hazine getirisi yüzde 5’i gördü: 2007 sonrası ilk kez böyle, stagflasyon riski gündemde

Kısaca

10 yıllık Treasury getirisi yüzde 5’i gördü, 2007 sonrası ilk kez. Stagflasyon tartışması yeniden gündemde. Piyasa ve yatırım kararları kısa vadede etkilenebilir.

Ana mesele

10 yıllık Hazine getirisi yüzde 5’i gördü; stagflasyon endişesi güçleniyor

Ne değişti?

Yıllık getiride yüzde 5 seviyesi ilk kez 2007 sonrası görüldü ve stagflasyon konuşuluyor

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Piyasalarda yatırım maliyetleri yükselebilir

Ne oldu?

10 yıllık getirinin 5% seviyesine çıkması 2007 sonrası ilk kez gerçekleşti.

Neden şimdi?

COVID, Fed politikaları ve enflasyon baskıları birleşik etkide.

Neden önemli?

Yatırım maliyetlerini yükseltebilir ve borçlanma koşullarını sıkılaştırabilir.

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Yatırımcılar
• Kamu maliyesi
• Özel sektör
• Tüketiciler

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Finansal piyasalarda volatilite artabilir, borçlanma maliyetleri yükselebilir

Riskler

• Enflasyonun kalıcılaşması
• Fed’in daha sıkı duruşu
• Bütçe dengesine baskı

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Fed açıklamaları ve faiz görünümünü
• Enflasyon verilerini
• Devlet tahvili ihraçlarını
• Küresel büyüme işaretlerini

Haberin tamamı

For years, a 5% yield on the Treasury looked like a relic from another interest-rate era—where borrowers faced soaring loan rates. Now it’s back, capping a six-year surge from pandemic-era lows near 0.5%. The benchmark yield crossed 5% this month for the first time since 2007, but this appears different than the eve of the Great Recession: the Fed is staring down a lose-lose situation combining high inflation and weak economic growth, a catch 22 that economists termed “stagflation” in the 1970s and long feared through the 10-year’s climb upward since the pandemic.

The last time the U.S. experienced this mix of trends — called “stagflation” by economists — was in the 1970s, during the Oil Crisis—and it took years for markets to digest the paradox of higher inflation, requiring higher interest rates, and weak economic growth, needing the opposite.

“We’re certainly in a stagflationary period,” famed investor Ray Dalio told CNBC in April. “How that transpires has a lot of parts to it, but we’re certainly in that.”

But to be clear, today doesn’t come close to the stagflation crisis in the 70s. Inflation peaked near 14.8% in March 1980, more than four times today’s 3.4% rate, and unemployment topped 9% during the mid-decade oil shock, versus roughly 4.1% now. The Fed’s response was proportionally brutal, too: Chair Paul Volcker pushed the federal-funds rate to 20% by 1981 to break inflation’s back, triggering a recession that pushed unemployment above 10%—a scale of pain nowhere near today’s range.

The 10-year Treasury yield is the return investors get for holding the U.S. government’s debt—and extraordinary monetary and fiscal response to COVID, the worst inflation in decades, the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, federal deficits and Treasury issuance and the shocks of tariffs, energy prices and Iran have all played a role in this reversal.

Where it started

In 2020, as COVID spread across the country and the world, investors rushed toward safety in the form of government debt and the Fed slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero. The Fed also purchased large amounts of Treasury and mortgage securities. The yield fell to 0.52% in 2020, the lowest level on record.

At the time, the combination of weak economic activity and exceptionally low interest rates produced a world where investors could expect very little income from government bonds. But it all changed when the economy reopened.

The U.S. government deployed trillions of dollars in fiscal support, with households accumulating savings—and customers shifted spending from services to goods. All at the same time, factories, ports and transportation networks struggled to keep up with the rebounding demand.

The turning point

The Consumer Price Index began to climb quickly in 2021. Federal Reserve officials had initially called the increase as temporary, noting supply constraints and the reopening economy. Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an August 2021 speech he expected the inflation to slow.

“Inflation at these levels is, of course, a cause for concern,” Powell said. “But that concern is tempered by a number of factors that suggest that these elevated readings are likely to prove temporary.”

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Kaynaklar

• Fortune