Paramount–Warner Bros Discovery birleşmesi sonrası beş yıl için film dağıtımı taahhütleri ve belirsizlikler

Kısaca

Beş yıl için 30 film 2027-2028, en az 32 film 2029-2031 hedefi duyuruldu; 2024-25 itibarıyla 35 film planı belirtilmiş İş dünyası ve yatırımcılar için belirsizlik: kalite, dağıtım genişliği ve hedeflerin gerçekleşmesi kritik Piyasa izlenecek: performans ve dağıtım zincirinin uyumuna bağlı sonuçlar ve olası değişiklikler

Ana mesele

Paramount ile Warner Bros Discovery birleşmesinde beş yıllık taahhütlerin uygulanabilirliği ve kalitesi belirsiz görünüyor

Ne değişti?

Beş yıl için net film sayısı duyuruldu; 30 ve 32 filmlik yıllık hedefler mevcut

Beni nasıl etkiler?

Girişimciler ve yatırımcılar için genişletilmiş dağıtım planı potansiyel getiriler ve riskler ortaya koyuyor

Ne oldu?

Paramount ve Warner Bros Discovery birleşmesi sonrası antitröst ihtilafları çözüldü ve beş yıl için dağıtım taahhütleri açıklandı

Neden şimdi?

Covid sonrası sinema sektörü iletim zincirinin yeniden kurulması ve talepte toparlanma süreci nedeniyle bugünlerde görülen sıkı planlar

Neden önemli?

Dağıtım taahhütleri seyahat zincirlerini ve tiyatro işletmelerini etkileyen önemli bir karar

Kimler etkileniyor?

• Tiyatro zincirleri
• Film yapım şirketleri

Sektör ve piyasa etkisi

Dağıtım planları sektörde rekabetçi baskıları değiştirebilir

Riskler

• Beş yılın sonunda yükümlülüğün gerçekçi olup olmadığı belirsiz
• Kalite ve hit oranı belirsizliği
• Dağıtım pazarı talebine uygunluk riskleri

Takip edilmesi gerekenler

• Dağıtım planlarının uygulanabilirliği
• Filmlerin kalitesi ve gişe performansı
• Sektördeki diğer birleşme ve regülasyon gelişmeleri

Haberin tamamı

A new movie every 11 days? That's what Paramount's David Ellison is promising after clearing a path this week for his company's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery , combining two storied Hollywood studios.

The CEO's settlement with a group of state attorneys general over antitrust concerns stipulates that the newly minted company will release at least 30 films into theaters in 2027 and 2028 and at least 32 films in 2029, 2030 and 2031.

Currently, the combined entity has 35 films scheduled to be released next year, according to data from Rentrak.

But questions remain about what caliber of releases the industry can expect — and what happens after the five-year agreement expires.

"This is much more complicated than simply asking whether 30 movies is enough," Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, told CNBC. "Thirty wide releases would represent a meaningful commitment to theatrical, and I think everyone in exhibition would welcome a robust pipeline of films.

"But ultimately the proof will be in how those movies perform, how varied the slate is, how consistently they reach theaters and how the combined company executes on those commitments," he said.

Hollywood has been clamoring for more theatrical titles since the Covid pandemic shuttered theaters and clogged the production pipeline. Ellison's theatrical commitment, which he touted as early as April at the industry's annual CinemaCon event, had garnered approval from the CEOs of the "Big Three" cinema operators — AMC's Adam Aron, Cinemark's Sean Gamble and Regal's Eduardo Acuna — even before Paramount's settlement.

Cinema United, the lobbying group that represents theater owners, had been staunchly against the merger, but gave its seal of approval this week, saying the agreement with the states "accomplishes many of exhibition's objectives."

However, not all exhibitors are on board. A number of theater executives, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told CNBC they remain skeptical.

Paramount's settlement includes stipulations about the number of theatrical releases the company must distribute over the next five years, how many of those releases need to be distributed widely and how many need to have a budget of more than $50 million. Paramount agreed to face steep penalties if it fails to meet the thresholds.

Consolidation among movie studios has traditionally led to fewer film releases , which, in turn, results in lower revenue, particularly for smaller theater chains and independent operators.

Overall industry dynamics have shifted drastically since Covid disrupted the theatrical space, leading to fewer screens and fewer moviegoers. Some of these woes have been masked by higher movie ticket prices — which are expected to help boost the domestic box office above $10 billion for the first time since the pandemic — but the moviegoing industry is still adapting to new economics.

Several theater operators told CNBC they were concerned the merger between Paramount and Warner Bros. would not only decrease the number of studios contributing films to the ecosystem, but also decrease competition and give the combined company a more powerful bargaining position when it comes to windowing terms and rental fees.

While larger exhibitors, which operate hundreds of locations, can weather consolidation, the smaller players have far less leverage.

Some theater owners also said they fear that Paramount will not be able to sustain its 30-plus theatrical output after the five-year deal, especially as production and marketing costs continue to rise and as Paramount contends with around $79 billion in debt once the merger closes.

"Of course, I worry about what happens in year six," Rob Lehman, president and chief operating officer at Santikos Theaters, told CNBC. "You know, after the five years is up, does it then drop down to 18 movies a year?"

Still, Lehman called Paramount's guaranteed number of films "a win for the industry."

Under the terms of its settlement agreement, if Paramount falls short of its annual quotas, it'll be fined $30 million per film, 90% of which will be paid out to film workers and 10% to the National Association of Attorneys General.

Though $30 million per film could prove to be a material penalty if Paramount significantly misses the mark, it pales in comparison to the cost of actually making and marketing a film.

And, "quantity by itself is not enough," Dergarabedian said. "You could say you are going to release 30 movies, or even 100 movies, but those movies still have to connect with audiences. If you had half as many films and every one of them became a major hit, which scenario would you rather have? So ultimately, it is not simply about how many movies are released. It is about having enough movies, released at the right cadence, that audiences actually want to see."

Next year, the combined Paramount-Warner Bros. slate includes new entries in popular franchises like Sonic, Godzilla, Minecraft, A Quiet Place, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Lord of the Rings, The Conjuring and the DC superhero universe.

There are also simple logistical questions around 30 films released from one company in a year.

With 52 weeks on the calendar, that's less than 2 weeks between new releases — not accounting for marquee weekends when the industry typically stacks big premieres.

A merged Paramount-Warner Bros. could easily cannibalize its own ticket sales if major releases are placed too close to one another.

Combine that with growing competition for coveted premium large format screens like Imax and Dolby and the schedule looks even trickier.

At present, the combined slate of Paramount and Warner Bros. for 2027 contains six dates where both studios have a theatrical release planned. There are also pockets on the calendar that have three to five releases stacked up on a weekly basis.

Haberin tamamı için kaynak bağlantısını ziyaret edin.

Kaynaklar

• CNBC - Business